QPR 0-0 Swansea – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates QPR at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this QPR vs Swansea encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Swansea make the trip to Kiyan Prince Foundation Stadium to face QPR in Championship, Regular Season - 23. The match kicks off on Tuesday 25 January 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
QPR have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 Championship outings this season: 7W 1D 2L. Last five: L W W W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for QPR, so this record blends games from this season and last.
QPR's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 games at Kiyan Prince Foundation Stadium this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Kiyan Prince Foundation Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Swansea (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Championship outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: L L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Swansea, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Swansea's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 0.80 in QPR's favour (2.20 vs 1.40) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading Data
QPR goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (24 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games).
Swansea goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (24 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — QPR 62% versus Swansea 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (QPR 54% | Swansea 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects QPR 1.20 xG and Swansea 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: QPR attack 0.907 / defence 0.954 | Swansea attack 0.814 / defence 1.259. League average goals — home 1.054 / away 1.169. Swansea bring a strong defensive rating of 1.259 — this is suppressing QPR's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 26 QPR games / 24 Swansea games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: QPR 43% | Draw 29% | Swansea 28%. Fair-value odds: QPR 2.33 | Draw 3.45 | Swansea 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.11. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.11 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is QPR at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on QPR if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.11 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates corroborate: QPR 30% | Swansea 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: QPR vs Swansea | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Kiyan Prince Foundation Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 25 Jan 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: QPR 43% | Draw 29% | Swansea 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 42% | xG QPR 1.20 / Swansea 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: QPR attack 0.907 / def 0.954 | Swansea attack 0.814 / def 1.259 | league avg home 1.054 / away 1.169 • Poisson stance: QPR (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
QPR xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Swansea xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does QPR vs Swansea kick off?
QPR vs Swansea kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 25 January 2022 at Kiyan Prince Foundation Stadium.
What was the final score in QPR vs Swansea?
QPR 0 - 0 Swansea.
Where is QPR vs Swansea being played?
The match is being played at Kiyan Prince Foundation Stadium.
What competition is QPR vs Swansea part of?
QPR vs Swansea is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win QPR vs Swansea?
Our statistical model gives QPR a 43% chance of winning, Swansea a 28% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making QPR the favourite.
Will both teams score in QPR vs Swansea?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both QPR and Swansea will score (BTTS).
Will QPR vs Swansea have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between QPR and Swansea?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are QPR and Swansea in?
QPR (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-W-W-W. Swansea (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates QPR's attack at 0.91x the league average against Swansea's defence at 1.26x — combine the two and it projects 1.20 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Swansea's attack (0.81x) against QPR's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 0.91.
These ratings are built from 26/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.8%), 1-0 (12.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
QPR Win
43%
2.33
29%
3.40
28%
3.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
12.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
QPR xG
Total xG
2.11
0.91
Swansea xG
2.33
43%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
3.60
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.40
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
40%
2.48
30%
3.33
Win to Nil
17%
5.79
8%
12.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.1 | 11.0 | 5.0 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.6 | 13.2 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 8.0 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for QPR vs Swansea?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are QPR and Swansea expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for QPR and 0.91 for Swansea, a combined total of 2.11.
How confident is the prediction model for QPR vs Swansea?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
QPR's recent record stands at 13W 4D 7L from 24 games, a 1.79 PPG return, with L-W-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for QPR is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Swansea, meanwhile, have gone 8W 7D 9L across 24 games — 1.29 PPG, with L-L-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for Swansea is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours QPR by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Swansea heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, QPR have managed 7W 2D 3L from 12 games — 1.92 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Swansea's away record stands at 3W 3D 6L across 12 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, QPR come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
QPR are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Swansea are on 1.17 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: QPR have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Defensively: Swansea in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 24 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
QPR
Blended
Swansea
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are QPR and Swansea in coming into this match?
QPR have gone 13W 4D 7L in their last 24 games (1.79 PPG), while Swansea have gone 8W 7D 9L in their last 24 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — QPR at home or Swansea away?
QPR's home record (1.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — QPR at home: 1.92 PPG; Swansea away: 1.00 PPG.
Have QPR or Swansea been keeping clean sheets recently?
QPR have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Swansea in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to January 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 21 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Swansea won 3-0 on 26 Dec 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, QPR have gone 0W 3D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Swansea — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
QPR
3
Draws
4
Swansea
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between QPR and Swansea?
From 10 meetings on record, QPR have won 3, Swansea have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did QPR and Swansea last play each other?
They last met on 21 April 2026, when QPR 1-2 Swansea.
Who has won more matches between QPR and Swansea?
Swansea have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
QPR are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Swansea are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — QPR 33%, Swansea 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (QPR) and 58% (Swansea).
On the defensive side: QPR keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = QPR home games / Swansea away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when QPR play Swansea?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of QPR's recent matches and 58% of Swansea's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is QPR vs Swansea usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of QPR's recent games and 58% of Swansea's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do QPR and Swansea tend to score early?
QPR have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Swansea in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at QPR's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Kiyan Prince Foundation Stadium, Regular Season - 23, as QPR and Swansea drew 0-0 in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting QPR 1.20 xG and Swansea 0.91 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. QPR fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Swansea landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of QPR attack 0.91 / defence 0.95 against Swansea attack 0.81 / defence 1.26, drawn from 26/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it QPR 43% | Draw 29% | Swansea 28%, with QPR to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (QPR 54%, Swansea 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
QPR's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Swansea's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, QPR arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 1.29. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. QPR (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.83 average — tighter than their form line. Swansea (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.