QPR 4-0 Leeds – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Leeds at 52% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as QPR face Leeds.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Leeds travel to MATRADE Loftus Road to take on QPR in Championship (matchday 45). The game is scheduled for Friday 26 April 2024 at 21:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, QPR stand at 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L D L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
In front of their own supporters, QPR have posted 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Leeds have recorded 5W 3D 2L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L D L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Leeds's away record over their last 10 away games: 6W 2D 2L (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: QPR 1.50 PPG, Leeds 1.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, QPR have won 0, Leeds 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
Scoring has been limited in the 1 H2H match in our data, averaging 1.0 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 4 Oct 2023, ended QPR 0–1 Leeds — a Leeds win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
QPR trading profile (last 82 games, 41 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Leeds trading profile (last 82 games, 41 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — QPR 45% versus Leeds 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (QPR 46% | Leeds 58%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: QPR surrender their half-time lead 31% of the time, while Leeds have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 33% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects QPR 1.12 xG and Leeds 1.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: QPR attack 0.841 / defence 1.146 | Leeds attack 1.300 / defence 0.982. League average goals — home 1.352 / away 1.156. Leeds have an above-average attack rating of 1.300, which lifts their away xG to 1.72. Data: built from QPR's last 90 games and Leeds's last 44.
Result probabilities: QPR 25% | Draw 24% | Leeds 52%. Fair-value odds: QPR 4.06 | Draw 4.20 | Leeds 1.94. Leeds hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Leeds are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Leeds offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.84 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (QPR's last 10 home games and Leeds's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: QPR 60% (last 10 home games) | Leeds 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: QPR vs Leeds | Competition: Championship, matchday 45 | Venue: MATRADE Loftus Road • Kick-off: Friday 26 April 2024 at 21:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: QPR 25% | Draw 24% | Leeds 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% (Under 46%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG QPR 1.12 / Leeds 1.72 • Poisson strength factors: QPR attack 0.841 / def 1.146 | Leeds attack 1.300 / def 0.982 | league avg home 1.352 / away 1.156 • Poisson stance: Leeds (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
QPR xG
Expected Goals
1.72
Leeds xG
55%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ QPR vs Leeds FAQs
What time does QPR vs Leeds kick off?
QPR vs Leeds kicked off at 21:00 UK time on Friday 26 April 2024 at MATRADE Loftus Road.
What was the final score in QPR vs Leeds?
QPR 4 - 0 Leeds.
Where is QPR vs Leeds being played?
The match is being played at MATRADE Loftus Road.
What competition is QPR vs Leeds part of?
QPR vs Leeds is a Championship fixture (matchday 45) (England).
Who is favourite to win QPR vs Leeds?
Our statistical model gives QPR a 25% chance of winning, Leeds a 52% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Leeds the favourite.
Will both teams score in QPR vs Leeds?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both QPR and Leeds will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will QPR vs Leeds have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from QPR's attack rating (0.84) and Leeds's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.12 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Leeds's attack versus QPR's defence, projects 1.72 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from QPR's last 90 games and Leeds's last 44 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-2 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Leeds Win
25%
4.06
24%
4.20
52%
1.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
QPR xG
Total xG
2.84
1.72
Leeds xG
4.06
25%
Home win
4.20
24%
Draw
1.94
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
18%
5.60
33%
3.05
Win to Nil
4%
22.75
17%
5.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 10.1 | 8.7 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 11.2 | 9.7 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 6.3 | 5.4 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ QPR vs Leeds Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for QPR vs Leeds?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are QPR and Leeds expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for QPR and 1.72 for Leeds, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for QPR vs Leeds?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
QPR come into this having played 82 games, going 23W 20D 39L for 1.09 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-L-W.
On the other side, Leeds sit at 1.48 PPG from 82 outings (34W 19D 29L), a run that reads W-L-D-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: QPR on 1.09 PPG, Leeds on 1.48. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
QPR's home form reads 10W 10D 21L across their last 41 home games, a 0.98 PPG return.
Away from home, Leeds have taken 1.12 points per game from their last 41 away games (13W 7D 21L).
Goals in Recent Form
QPR are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Leeds are on 1.56 scored and 1.40 conceded.
Last 82 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
QPR
Current Season
Leeds
Current Season
QPR (Home) vs Leeds (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
QPR
Current Season
Leeds
Current Season
❓ QPR vs Leeds Form FAQs
What form are QPR and Leeds in coming into this match?
QPR have gone 23W 20D 39L in their last 82 games (1.09 PPG), while Leeds have gone 34W 19D 29L in their last 82 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — QPR at home or Leeds away?
Leeds's away record (1.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — QPR at home: 0.98 PPG; Leeds away: 1.12 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 4 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from October 2023. All of them came in Championship. The most recent in our data was on 15 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 26 Apr 2024, when QPR won QPR 4-0 Leeds.
QPR's record when hosting Leeds specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
QPR
1
Draws
2
Leeds
Recent Meetings
❓ QPR vs Leeds H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between QPR and Leeds?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, QPR have won 1, Leeds have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did QPR and Leeds last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 15 March 2025: QPR 2-2 Leeds.
Who has won more matches between QPR and Leeds?
Leeds have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
QPR are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Leeds are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — QPR 49%, Leeds 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 51% (QPR) and 56% (Leeds).
On the defensive side: QPR have failed to score in 39% of games; Leeds in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = QPR home games / Leeds away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ QPR vs Leeds Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in QPR and Leeds matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 49% of QPR's recent matches and 54% of Leeds's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are QPR and Leeds matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 51% of QPR's recent games and 56% of Leeds's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do QPR and Leeds matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of QPR's recent matches and 68% of Leeds's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant QPR run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Leeds.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
QPR beat Leeds 4-0 at MATRADE Loftus Road, Regular Season - 45, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting QPR 1.12 xG and Leeds 1.72 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. QPR beat their projection by 2.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Leeds landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of QPR attack 0.84 / defence 1.15 against Leeds attack 1.30 / defence 0.98, drawn from 90/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it QPR 25% | Draw 24% | Leeds 52%, with Leeds to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a QPR win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (QPR 46%, Leeds 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
QPR's trading profile (82 games, 41 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not.
Leeds's trading profile (82 games, 41 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — QPR 1.09 PPG, Leeds 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the QPR win broke the near-deadlock. QPR (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.93 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.51 average — tighter than their form line. Leeds (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.41 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.56 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
Related fixtures
More Championship fixtures — matchday 45
All Championship fixtures →
More UK football predictions →