QPR 2-0 Hull City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hull City at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this QPR vs Hull City fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
MATRADE Loftus Road plays host to QPR versus Hull City in Championship, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off: Saturday 9 December 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
QPR have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Championship outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: D D L W W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for QPR, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at MATRADE Loftus Road, QPR have gone 1W 3D 6L this season (10 games, 0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Hull City (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Championship outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: L W D W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Hull City, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hull City's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Championship this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On a straight form reading, Hull City are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (1.40 vs 0.80). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — QPR have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Hull City in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: QPR 2W, Hull City 1W, 1D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 28 Jan 2023, ended 0–3 with Hull City winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
QPR goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (65 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Hull City goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (65 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — QPR 48% versus Hull City 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (QPR 49% | Hull City 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects QPR 1.43 xG and Hull City 1.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: QPR attack 0.911 / defence 1.321 | Hull City attack 1.143 / defence 1.111. League average goals — home 1.409 / away 1.196. Data: 65 QPR games / 65 Hull City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: QPR 30% | Draw 23% | Hull City 46%. Fair-value odds: QPR 3.33 | Draw 4.35 | Hull City 2.17. Hull City hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.23. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.23 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.43 / 1.80) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hull City at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hull City if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.23 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: QPR 60% | Hull City 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: QPR vs Hull City | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: MATRADE Loftus Road • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Dec 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: QPR 30% | Draw 23% | Hull City 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 64% | xG QPR 1.43 / Hull City 1.80 • Poisson strength factors: QPR attack 0.911 / def 1.321 | Hull City attack 1.143 / def 1.111 | league avg home 1.409 / away 1.196 • Poisson stance: Hull City (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
QPR xG
Expected Goals
1.80
Hull City xG
64%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does QPR vs Hull City kick off?
QPR vs Hull City kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 9 December 2023 at MATRADE Loftus Road.
What was the final score in QPR vs Hull City?
QPR 2 - 0 Hull City.
Where is QPR vs Hull City being played?
The match is being played at MATRADE Loftus Road.
What competition is QPR vs Hull City part of?
QPR vs Hull City is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win QPR vs Hull City?
Our statistical model gives QPR a 30% chance of winning, Hull City a 46% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Hull City the favourite.
Will both teams score in QPR vs Hull City?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both QPR and Hull City will score (BTTS).
Will QPR vs Hull City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between QPR and Hull City?
Record (4 meetings): QPR 2W | Draws 1 | Hull City 1W.
What form are QPR and Hull City in?
QPR (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-L-W-W. Hull City (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
QPR's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against Hull City's defensive record (1.11x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.43. Flip it around — Hull City's attack (1.14x) against QPR's defence (1.32x) — and the away total comes out at 1.80.
These ratings are built from 65/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 2-1 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hull City Win
30%
3.30
23%
4.30
46%
2.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
2 – 1
7.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
QPR xG
Total xG
3.23
1.80
Hull City xG
3.30
30%
Home win
4.30
23%
Draw
2.16
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.75
Clean Sheet
16%
6.08
24%
4.16
Win to Nil
5%
20.05
11%
8.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 7.1 | 6.4 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 5.6 | 10.2 | 9.2 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 7.3 | 6.5 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.4 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for QPR vs Hull City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are QPR and Hull City expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for QPR and 1.80 for Hull City, a combined total of 3.23.
How confident is the prediction model for QPR vs Hull City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
QPR's recent record stands at 17W 15D 33L from 65 games, a 1.02 PPG return, with D-D-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for QPR is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hull City, meanwhile, have gone 22W 22D 21L across 65 games — 1.35 PPG, with L-W-D-W-L in their last five. The sample for Hull City is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.02 PPG for QPR against 1.35 for Hull City. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, QPR have managed 7W 7D 17L from 31 games — 0.90 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Hull City's away record stands at 9W 11D 11L across 31 trips, a 1.23 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
QPR are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Hull City are on 1.23 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Last 65 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
QPR
Blended
Hull City
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are QPR and Hull City in coming into this match?
QPR have gone 17W 15D 33L in their last 65 games (1.02 PPG), while Hull City have gone 22W 22D 21L in their last 65 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — QPR at home or Hull City away?
Hull City's away record (1.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — QPR at home: 0.90 PPG; Hull City away: 1.23 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
QPR go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: QPR won 0-3 on 14 Aug 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, QPR have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Hull City — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
QPR
1
Draws
3
Hull City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between QPR and Hull City?
From 10 meetings on record, QPR have won 6, Hull City have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did QPR and Hull City last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Hull City 1-3 QPR.
Who has won more matches between QPR and Hull City?
QPR have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
QPR are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Hull City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — QPR 52%, Hull City 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (QPR) and 55% (Hull City).
On the defensive side: QPR have failed to score in 42% of games; Hull City in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = QPR home games / Hull City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when QPR play Hull City?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of QPR's recent matches and 58% of Hull City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is QPR vs Hull City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of QPR's recent games and 55% of Hull City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do QPR and Hull City tend to score early?
QPR have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Hull City in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
QPR cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Hull City.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
QPR beat Hull City 2-0 at MATRADE Loftus Road, Regular Season - 20, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting QPR 1.43 xG and Hull City 1.80 xG, a combined 3.23. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Hull City landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of QPR attack 0.91 / defence 1.32 against Hull City attack 1.14 / defence 1.11, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it QPR 30% | Draw 23% | Hull City 46%, with Hull City to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual QPR win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (QPR 49%, Hull City 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
QPR's trading profile (65 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not.
Hull City's trading profile (65 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — QPR 1.02 PPG, Hull City 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the QPR win broke the near-deadlock. QPR (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.94 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.65 average — tighter than their form line. Hull City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.