QPR 0-2 Fulham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Fulham at 60% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this QPR vs Fulham encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
QPR and Fulham meet at Kiyan Prince Foundation Stadium in Championship, Regular Season - 40. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 2 April 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
QPR (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Championship fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Kiyan Prince Foundation Stadium, QPR have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Fulham's overall Championship record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W W W D L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Fulham away from home this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 away games — 2.10 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Fulham arrive in superior form — a 1.20 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 0.80) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for QPR, 1 for Fulham and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 5.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 16 Oct 2021, ended 1–4 with Fulham winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
QPR — key trading statistics (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games).
Fulham — key trading statistics (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; they lead at the break 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — QPR 60% versus Fulham 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (QPR 57% | Fulham 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects QPR 0.97 xG and Fulham 1.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: QPR attack 0.959 / defence 1.224 | Fulham attack 1.446 / defence 0.957. League average goals — home 1.063 / away 1.092. Fulham have an above-average attack strength of 1.446 — the away xG of 1.93 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 38 QPR games / 37 Fulham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: QPR 18% | Draw 22% | Fulham 60%. Fair-value odds: QPR 5.56 | Draw 4.55 | Fulham 1.67. The model has a clear lean to Fulham (60%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fulham are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.91 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: QPR 50% | Fulham 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: QPR vs Fulham | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 40 | Venue: Kiyan Prince Foundation Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Apr 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: QPR 18% | Draw 22% | Fulham 60% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 53% | xG QPR 0.97 / Fulham 1.93 • Poisson strength factors: QPR attack 0.959 / def 1.224 | Fulham attack 1.446 / def 0.957 | league avg home 1.063 / away 1.092 • Poisson stance: Fulham (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
QPR xG
Expected Goals
1.93
Fulham xG
53%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does QPR vs Fulham kick off?
QPR vs Fulham kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 2 April 2022 at Kiyan Prince Foundation Stadium.
What was the final score in QPR vs Fulham?
QPR 0 - 2 Fulham.
Where is QPR vs Fulham being played?
The match is being played at Kiyan Prince Foundation Stadium.
What competition is QPR vs Fulham part of?
QPR vs Fulham is a Regular Season - 40 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win QPR vs Fulham?
Our statistical model gives QPR a 18% chance of winning, Fulham a 60% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Fulham the favourite.
Will both teams score in QPR vs Fulham?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both QPR and Fulham will score (BTTS).
Will QPR vs Fulham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between QPR and Fulham?
Record (1 meetings): QPR 0W | Draws 0 | Fulham 1W.
What form are QPR and Fulham in?
QPR (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. Fulham (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from QPR's attack rating (0.96) and Fulham's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 0.97 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Fulham's attack (1.45x) against QPR's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 1.93.
These ratings are built from 38/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.6%. Close behind: 0-2 (10.2%), 1-2 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fulham Win
18%
5.44
22%
4.54
60%
1.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
0 – 2
10.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
QPR xG
Total xG
2.91
1.93
Fulham xG
5.44
18%
Home win
4.54
22%
Draw
1.68
60%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
14%
6.90
38%
2.65
Win to Nil
3%
37.54
22%
4.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 10.6 | 10.2 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 1.2 |
| 1 | 5.3 | 10.3 | 9.9 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 2.6 | 5.0 | 4.8 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for QPR vs Fulham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are QPR and Fulham expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for QPR and 1.93 for Fulham, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for QPR vs Fulham?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 37 outings, QPR have picked up 1.57 PPG on a 17W 7D 13L record — L-L-W-L-L across the most recent five.
Fulham's form line: 23W 8D 6L from 37 games, 2.08 PPG, last five W-W-W-D-L.
Put side by side, Fulham are the form team by 0.51 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against QPR.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, QPR have posted 1.72 PPG from 18 outings (9W 4D 5L).
On the road, Fulham have gone 11W 4D 3L from 18 away games — 2.06 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
QPR are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Fulham are on 2.43 scored and 0.86 conceded.
Defensively: Fulham in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 37 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
QPR
Current Season
Fulham
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are QPR and Fulham in coming into this match?
QPR have gone 17W 7D 13L in their last 37 games (1.57 PPG), while Fulham have gone 23W 8D 6L in their last 37 (2.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — QPR at home or Fulham away?
Fulham's away record (2.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — QPR at home: 1.72 PPG; Fulham away: 2.06 PPG.
Have QPR or Fulham been keeping clean sheets recently?
QPR have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Fulham in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
QPR
0
Draws
2
Fulham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between QPR and Fulham?
From 2 meetings on record, QPR have won 0, Fulham have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did QPR and Fulham last play each other?
They last met on 2 April 2022, when QPR 0-2 Fulham.
Who has won more matches between QPR and Fulham?
Fulham have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
QPR are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Fulham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 61% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — QPR 44%, Fulham 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (QPR) and 50% (Fulham).
On the defensive side: QPR keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Fulham in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = QPR home games / Fulham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when QPR play Fulham?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of QPR's recent matches and 56% of Fulham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is QPR vs Fulham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of QPR's recent games and 50% of Fulham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do QPR and Fulham tend to score early?
QPR have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Fulham in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fulham cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over QPR.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fulham beat QPR 0-2 at Kiyan Prince Foundation Stadium, Regular Season - 40, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting QPR 0.97 xG and Fulham 1.93 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. QPR fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of QPR attack 0.96 / defence 1.22 against Fulham attack 1.45 / defence 0.96, drawn from 38/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it QPR 18% | Draw 22% | Fulham 60%, with Fulham to win its most likely call at 60%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (QPR 57%, Fulham 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
QPR's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Fulham's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Fulham arrived the stronger side — 2.08 PPG against 1.57. Form held, and they took the win. QPR (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.39 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Fulham (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.89 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.