QPR vs Derby – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Derby at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this QPR vs Derby fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Championship clash, Regular Season - 10 as QPR welcome Derby to Loftus Road. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 14 October 2026 at 18:45 UTC.
Form Guide
QPR — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Championship outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: L W D W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. QPR have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, QPR have posted 3W 2D 5L at Loftus Road — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Championship games this season, Derby have recorded 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Derby have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Derby's away record: 3W 0D 7L from 10 road trips in Championship this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (QPR) versus 1.30 (Derby). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. QPR register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Derby in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for QPR, 3 for Derby and 0 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Apr 2026, ended 2–3 with Derby winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
QPR in-play and half-time data (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Derby in-play and half-time data (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — QPR 64% and Derby 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (QPR 64% | Derby 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects QPR 1.27 xG and Derby 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: QPR attack 0.931 / defence 0.939 | Derby attack 1.092 / defence 0.953. League average goals — home 1.431 / away 1.305. Data: 50 QPR games / 50 Derby games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: QPR 32% | Draw 33% | Derby 35%. Fair-value odds: QPR 3.12 | Draw 3.03 | Derby 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Derby are the pick at 35% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Derby offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.61 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.1 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: QPR 60% | Derby 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: QPR vs Derby | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Loftus Road • Kick-off: Wednesday 14 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: QPR 32% | Draw 33% | Derby 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 56% | xG QPR 1.27 / Derby 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: QPR attack 0.931 / def 0.939 | Derby attack 1.092 / def 0.953 | league avg home 1.431 / away 1.305 • Poisson stance: Derby (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
QPR xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Derby xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does QPR vs Derby kick off?
QPR vs Derby is scheduled to kick off at 18:45 on Wednesday 14 October 2026 at Loftus Road.
Where is QPR vs Derby being played?
The match is being played at Loftus Road.
What competition is QPR vs Derby part of?
QPR vs Derby is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win QPR vs Derby?
Our statistical model gives QPR a 32% chance of winning, Derby a 35% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Derby the favourite.
Will both teams score in QPR vs Derby?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both QPR and Derby will score (BTTS).
Will QPR vs Derby have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between QPR and Derby?
Record (6 meetings): QPR 3W | Draws 0 | Derby 3W.
What form are QPR and Derby in?
QPR (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-D-W-W. Derby (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
QPR's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Derby's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.27. The same calculation in reverse, Derby's attack versus QPR's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.0%), 1-2 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Derby Win
32%
3.15
33%
3.01
35%
2.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
QPR xG
Total xG
2.61
1.34
Derby xG
3.15
32%
Home win
3.01
33%
Draw
2.86
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
26%
3.82
28%
3.56
Win to Nil
8%
12.01
10%
10.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 9.9 | 6.6 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.5 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 7.9 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.4 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for QPR vs Derby?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are QPR and Derby expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for QPR and 1.34 for Derby, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for QPR vs Derby?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 50 outings, QPR have picked up 1.36 PPG on a 19W 11D 20L record — L-W-D-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for QPR, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Derby's form line: 21W 10D 19L from 50 games, 1.46 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-W. It's still early in the season for Derby, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: QPR on 1.36 PPG, Derby on 1.46. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, QPR have posted 1.48 PPG from 25 outings (11W 4D 10L).
On the road, Derby have gone 11W 3D 11L from 25 away games — 1.44 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
QPR are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Derby are on 1.44 scored and 1.32 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: QPR have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; Derby in 64%.
Last 50 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
QPR
Early Season
Derby
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are QPR and Derby in coming into this match?
QPR have gone 19W 11D 20L in their last 50 games (1.36 PPG), while Derby have gone 21W 10D 19L in their last 50 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — QPR at home or Derby away?
QPR's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — QPR at home: 1.48 PPG; Derby away: 1.44 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between QPR and Derby runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Derby have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Feb 2025, when QPR won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
QPR's record when hosting Derby specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
QPR
0
Draws
3
Derby
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between QPR and Derby?
From 6 meetings on record, QPR have won 3, Derby have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did QPR and Derby last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when QPR 2-3 Derby.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
QPR are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Derby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — QPR at 72%, Derby at 64%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 76% for QPR and 64% for Derby. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 28% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = QPR home games / Derby away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when QPR play Derby?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 72% of QPR's games and 64% of Derby's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is QPR vs Derby usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 76% of QPR's matches and 64% of Derby's.
Do QPR and Derby tend to score early?
QPR have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Derby in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.