QPR 0-1 Bournemouth – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bournemouth at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this QPR vs Bournemouth fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
QPR host Bournemouth at Kiyan Prince Foundation Stadium in Championship, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 27 December 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
QPR — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Championship outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: D W W W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for QPR, so this record blends games from this season and last.
QPR's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Kiyan Prince Foundation Stadium this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Kiyan Prince Foundation Stadium.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bournemouth stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Championship matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D D D L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Bournemouth, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bournemouth's form when playing away from home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On current form, QPR have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 1.20) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for QPR, 1 for Bournemouth and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 14 Sep 2021, ended 1–2 with Bournemouth winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
QPR in-play and half-time data (21 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (home games).
Bournemouth in-play and half-time data (21 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 36% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 9% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — QPR 62% versus Bournemouth 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (QPR 52% | Bournemouth 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects QPR 0.95 xG and Bournemouth 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: QPR attack 1.000 / defence 1.038 | Bournemouth attack 0.889 / defence 0.927. League average goals — home 1.026 / away 1.088. Data: 21 QPR games / 23 Bournemouth games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: QPR 32% | Draw 33% | Bournemouth 35%. Fair-value odds: QPR 3.12 | Draw 3.03 | Bournemouth 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.96. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.96 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Bournemouth as the most likely outcome at 35% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form QPR (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bournemouth offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.96 combined xG gives a 31% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 40% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: QPR 40% | Bournemouth 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: QPR vs Bournemouth | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Kiyan Prince Foundation Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 27 Dec 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: QPR 32% | Draw 33% | Bournemouth 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 40% | xG QPR 0.95 / Bournemouth 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: QPR attack 1.000 / def 1.038 | Bournemouth attack 0.889 / def 0.927 | league avg home 1.026 / away 1.088 • Poisson stance: Bournemouth (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
QPR xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Bournemouth xG
40%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does QPR vs Bournemouth kick off?
QPR vs Bournemouth kicked off at 17:30 on Monday 27 December 2021 at Kiyan Prince Foundation Stadium.
What was the final score in QPR vs Bournemouth?
QPR 0 - 1 Bournemouth.
Where is QPR vs Bournemouth being played?
The match is being played at Kiyan Prince Foundation Stadium.
What competition is QPR vs Bournemouth part of?
QPR vs Bournemouth is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win QPR vs Bournemouth?
Our statistical model gives QPR a 32% chance of winning, Bournemouth a 35% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Bournemouth the favourite.
Will both teams score in QPR vs Bournemouth?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both QPR and Bournemouth will score (BTTS).
Will QPR vs Bournemouth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between QPR and Bournemouth?
Record (1 meetings): QPR 0W | Draws 0 | Bournemouth 1W.
What form are QPR and Bournemouth in?
QPR (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-W-W-L. Bournemouth (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from QPR's attack rating (1.00) and Bournemouth's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 0.95 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Bournemouth's attack versus QPR's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 21/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 0-1 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bournemouth Win
32%
3.13
33%
3.00
35%
2.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
14.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
14.2%
Away win
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
QPR xG
Total xG
1.96
1.00
Bournemouth xG
3.13
32%
Home win
3.00
33%
Draw
2.88
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.51
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
37%
2.73
39%
2.59
Win to Nil
12%
8.54
13%
7.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.2 | 14.2 | 7.1 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.5 | 13.5 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 6.4 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for QPR vs Bournemouth?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.9%.
How many goals are QPR and Bournemouth expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for QPR and 1.00 for Bournemouth, a combined total of 1.96.
How confident is the prediction model for QPR vs Bournemouth?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
QPR's recent record stands at 10W 5D 6L from 21 games, a 1.67 PPG return, with D-W-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for QPR is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bournemouth, meanwhile, have gone 11W 6D 4L across 21 games — 1.86 PPG, with D-D-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Bournemouth is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: QPR on 1.67 PPG, Bournemouth on 1.86. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, QPR have managed 6W 3D 2L from 11 games — 1.91 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bournemouth's away record stands at 5W 4D 2L across 11 trips, a 1.73 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
QPR are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Bournemouth are on 1.57 scored and 0.81 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: QPR have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Defensively: Bournemouth in 48% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 21 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
QPR
Blended
Bournemouth
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are QPR and Bournemouth in coming into this match?
QPR have gone 10W 5D 6L in their last 21 games (1.67 PPG), while Bournemouth have gone 11W 6D 4L in their last 21 (1.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — QPR at home or Bournemouth away?
QPR's home record (1.91 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — QPR at home: 1.91 PPG; Bournemouth away: 1.73 PPG.
Have QPR or Bournemouth been keeping clean sheets recently?
QPR have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Bournemouth in 48%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 December 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
QPR
0
Draws
2
Bournemouth
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between QPR and Bournemouth?
From 2 meetings on record, QPR have won 0, Bournemouth have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did QPR and Bournemouth last play each other?
They last met on 27 December 2021, when QPR 0-1 Bournemouth.
Who has won more matches between QPR and Bournemouth?
Bournemouth have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
QPR are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Bournemouth see a goal before the break in 36% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — QPR 46%, Bournemouth 27% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 27% for QPR and 9% for Bournemouth.
On the defensive side: QPR keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Bournemouth in 64%; Bournemouth in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = QPR home games / Bournemouth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when QPR play Bournemouth?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of QPR's recent matches and 27% of Bournemouth's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is QPR vs Bournemouth usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 27% of QPR's recent games and 9% of Bournemouth's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do QPR and Bournemouth tend to score early?
QPR have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Bournemouth in 36% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bournemouth edge out QPR 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bournemouth beat QPR 0-1 at Kiyan Prince Foundation Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting QPR 0.95 xG and Bournemouth 1.00 xG, a combined 1.96. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. QPR fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of QPR attack 1.00 / defence 1.04 against Bournemouth attack 0.89 / defence 0.93, drawn from 21/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it QPR 32% | Draw 33% | Bournemouth 35%, with Bournemouth to win its most likely call at 35%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 59% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (QPR 52%, Bournemouth 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
QPR's trading profile (21 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Bournemouth's trading profile (21 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — QPR 1.67 PPG, Bournemouth 1.86 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bournemouth win broke the near-deadlock. QPR (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.45 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.