Preston 0-0 Derby – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Preston at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Preston vs Derby fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Deepdale plays host to Preston versus Derby in Championship, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off: Saturday 16 October 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Preston (all games): 2W 5D 3L across 10 Championship fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D D D D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Preston, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Preston at Deepdale this season: 2W 2D 1L from 5 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Preston are significantly better at Deepdale than their overall form suggests.
Derby's overall Championship record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: D W L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Derby, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Derby's away record: 1W 1D 3L from 5 road trips in Championship this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 5 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Preston, 1.30 for Derby — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading Data
Preston goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Derby goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 20% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time; they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Preston 64% versus Derby 36%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Preston 46% | Derby 18%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Preston 1.08 xG and Derby 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Preston attack 0.954 / defence 1.220 | Derby attack 0.559 / defence 1.056. League average goals — home 1.077 / away 1.130. Data: 11 Preston games / 11 Derby games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Preston 41% | Draw 35% | Derby 24%. Fair-value odds: Preston 2.44 | Draw 2.86 | Derby 4.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.85. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.85 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Preston at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Preston if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.85 combined xG gives a 28% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 37%. Form rates are neutral: Preston 80% | Derby 20%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Preston vs Derby | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Deepdale • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Oct 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Preston 41% | Draw 35% | Derby 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 37% | xG Preston 1.08 / Derby 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: Preston attack 0.954 / def 1.220 | Derby attack 0.559 / def 1.056 | league avg home 1.077 / away 1.130 • Poisson stance: Preston (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Preston xG
Expected Goals
0.77
Derby xG
37%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Preston vs Derby kick off?
Preston vs Derby kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 16 October 2021 at Deepdale.
What was the final score in Preston vs Derby?
Preston 0 - 0 Derby.
Where is Preston vs Derby being played?
The match is being played at Deepdale.
What competition is Preston vs Derby part of?
Preston vs Derby is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Preston vs Derby?
Our statistical model gives Preston a 41% chance of winning, Derby a 24% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Preston the favourite.
Will both teams score in Preston vs Derby?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Preston and Derby will score (BTTS).
Will Preston vs Derby have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Preston and Derby?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Preston and Derby in?
Preston (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-D-D-L. Derby (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Preston's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Derby's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.08. Flip it around — Derby's attack (0.56x) against Preston's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 0.77.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 17.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.3%), 1-1 (14.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Preston Win
41%
2.44
35%
2.85
24%
4.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.0%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.6%
Draw
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Preston xG
Total xG
1.85
0.77
Derby xG
2.44
41%
Home win
2.85
35%
Draw
4.17
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.69
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
46%
2.16
34%
2.96
Win to Nil
19%
5.28
8%
12.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.6 | 12.0 | 4.6 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.0 | 13.1 | 5.0 | 1.3 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 9.2 | 7.1 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.3 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Preston vs Derby?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.3%.
How many goals are Preston and Derby expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Preston and 0.77 for Derby, a combined total of 1.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Preston vs Derby?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 11 outings, Preston have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 2W 5D 4L record — D-D-D-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Preston is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Derby's form line: 3W 5D 3L from 11 games, 1.27 PPG, last five D-W-L-W-D. The sample for Derby is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for Preston against 1.27 for Derby. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Preston have posted 1.60 PPG from 5 outings (2W 2D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 1.00 PPG overall — Preston are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Derby have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 away games — 0.80 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.27 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Derby's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Preston come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Preston are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Derby are on 0.64 scored and 0.73 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Preston have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Defensively: Derby in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Preston
Blended
Derby
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Preston and Derby in coming into this match?
Preston have gone 2W 5D 4L in their last 11 games (1.00 PPG), while Derby have gone 3W 5D 3L in their last 11 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Preston at home or Derby away?
Preston's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Preston at home: 1.60 PPG; Derby away: 0.80 PPG.
Have Preston or Derby been keeping clean sheets recently?
Preston have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Derby in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 17 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Preston have gone 0W 2D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Derby — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Preston
2
Draws
3
Derby
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Preston and Derby?
From 6 meetings on record, Preston have won 1, Derby have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Preston and Derby last play each other?
They last met on 17 January 2026, when Preston 0-1 Derby.
Who has won more matches between Preston and Derby?
Derby have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Preston are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Derby tend to start slowly — only 20% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Preston 80%, Derby 20% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 40% for Preston and 20% for Derby.
On the defensive side: Derby in 40%; Derby in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Preston home games / Derby away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Preston play Derby?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 80% of Preston's recent matches and 20% of Derby's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Preston vs Derby usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Preston's recent games and 20% of Derby's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Preston and Derby tend to score early?
Preston have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Derby in 20% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Preston's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Preston and Derby finished level at 0-0 at Deepdale, Regular Season - 12, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Preston 1.08 xG and Derby 0.77 xG, a combined 1.85. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Preston fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Preston attack 0.95 / defence 1.22 against Derby attack 0.56 / defence 1.06, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Preston 41% | Draw 35% | Derby 24%, with Preston to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 57% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 32% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Preston 46%, Derby 18%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Preston's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Derby's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Preston 1.00 PPG, Derby 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Preston (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line. Derby (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.