Plymouth 0-1 QPR – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Plymouth at 41%, yet in-form QPR provide a compelling counter-argument — this Plymouth vs QPR fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Championship encounter, Regular Season - 27 sees QPR travel to Home Park to take on Plymouth. The game is scheduled for Saturday 18 January 2025, 12:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Plymouth stand at 0W 4D 6L from 10 Championship matches — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L D D D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.60 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Plymouth, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Plymouth's home record at Home Park: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Championship appearances (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — Plymouth are significantly better at Home Park than their overall form suggests.
Across all Championship games this season, QPR have recorded 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W L D W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for QPR, so this record blends games from this season and last.
QPR's away record: 1W 5D 4L from 10 road trips in Championship this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. QPR are 1.70 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 0.40), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Plymouth have won 0, QPR 0, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.3 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 24 Aug 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Plymouth in-play tendencies (72 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
QPR in-play tendencies (72 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Plymouth 51% versus QPR 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Plymouth 54% | QPR 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Plymouth 1.39 xG and QPR 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Plymouth attack 1.106 / defence 1.397 | QPR attack 0.810 / defence 0.903. League average goals — home 1.390 / away 1.007. Data: 72 Plymouth games / 72 QPR games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Plymouth 41% | Draw 30% | QPR 29%. Fair-value odds: Plymouth 2.44 | Draw 3.33 | QPR 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Plymouth at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form QPR (2.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Plymouth offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.53 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.3 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Plymouth 90% | QPR 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Plymouth vs QPR | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Home Park • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Jan 2025, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Plymouth 41% | Draw 30% | QPR 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 53% | xG Plymouth 1.39 / QPR 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Plymouth attack 1.106 / def 1.397 | QPR attack 0.810 / def 0.903 | league avg home 1.390 / away 1.007 • Poisson stance: Plymouth (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Plymouth xG
Expected Goals
1.14
QPR xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Plymouth vs QPR kick off?
Plymouth vs QPR kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 18 January 2025 at Home Park.
What was the final score in Plymouth vs QPR?
Plymouth 0 - 1 QPR.
Where is Plymouth vs QPR being played?
The match is being played at Home Park.
What competition is Plymouth vs QPR part of?
Plymouth vs QPR is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Plymouth vs QPR?
Our statistical model gives Plymouth a 41% chance of winning, QPR a 29% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Plymouth the favourite.
Will both teams score in Plymouth vs QPR?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Plymouth and QPR will score (BTTS).
Will Plymouth vs QPR have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Plymouth and QPR?
Record (3 meetings): Plymouth 0W | Draws 3 | QPR 0W.
What form are Plymouth and QPR in?
Plymouth (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.60 | L5 L-L-D-D-D. QPR (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Plymouth's attacking strength (1.11x league average) is weighed against QPR's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.39. The same calculation in reverse, QPR's attack versus Plymouth's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 72/72 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.6%), 1-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Plymouth Win
41%
2.44
30%
3.36
29%
3.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Plymouth xG
Total xG
2.53
1.14
QPR xG
2.44
41%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
3.42
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
32%
3.12
25%
4.01
Win to Nil
13%
7.61
7%
13.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 9.1 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 12.6 | 7.2 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 8.8 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.1 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Plymouth vs QPR?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Plymouth and QPR expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Plymouth and 1.14 for QPR, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Plymouth vs QPR?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 72 outings, Plymouth have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 17W 21D 34L record — L-L-D-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Plymouth is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
QPR's form line: 22W 22D 28L from 72 games, 1.22 PPG, last five W-L-D-W-W. The sample for QPR is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Plymouth on 1.00 PPG, QPR on 1.22. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Plymouth have posted 1.51 PPG from 35 outings (14W 11D 10L). That's noticeably better than their 1.00 PPG overall — Plymouth are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, QPR have gone 10W 11D 14L from 35 away games — 1.17 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Plymouth are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.72 conceded per game recently; QPR are on 1.06 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Last 72 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Plymouth
Blended
QPR
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Plymouth and QPR in coming into this match?
Plymouth have gone 17W 21D 34L in their last 72 games (1.00 PPG), while QPR have gone 22W 22D 28L in their last 72 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Plymouth at home or QPR away?
Plymouth's home record (1.51 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Plymouth at home: 1.51 PPG; QPR away: 1.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 January 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Plymouth's record when hosting QPR specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Plymouth
3
Draws
1
QPR
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Plymouth and QPR?
From 4 meetings on record, Plymouth have won 0, QPR have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Plymouth and QPR last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2025, when Plymouth 0-1 QPR.
Who has won more matches between Plymouth and QPR?
QPR have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Plymouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
QPR see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Plymouth 63%, QPR 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (Plymouth) and 34% (QPR).
On the defensive side: QPR in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Plymouth home games / QPR away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Plymouth play QPR?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 63% of Plymouth's recent matches and 40% of QPR's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Plymouth vs QPR usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 63% of Plymouth's recent games and 34% of QPR's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Plymouth and QPR tend to score early?
Plymouth have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, QPR in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as QPR defy the odds to beat Plymouth 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
QPR beat Plymouth 0-1 at Home Park, Regular Season - 27, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Plymouth 1.39 xG and QPR 1.14 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Plymouth fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plymouth attack 1.11 / defence 1.40 against QPR attack 0.81 / defence 0.90, drawn from 72/72 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Plymouth 41% | Draw 30% | QPR 29%, with Plymouth to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual QPR win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plymouth 54%, QPR 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Plymouth's trading profile (72 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
QPR's trading profile (72 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Plymouth 1.00 PPG, QPR 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the QPR win broke the near-deadlock. Plymouth (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward. QPR (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.