Plymouth 1-0 Leicester – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Leicester at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Plymouth vs Leicester fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Plymouth host Leicester at Home Park in Championship, Regular Season - 43. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 12 April 2024 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Plymouth stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Championship matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L W D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home at Home Park, Plymouth have gone 1W 4D 5L this season (10 games, 0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Leicester — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Championship fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Leicester away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Leicester — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.30 vs 0.80). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Plymouth have won 0, Leicester 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 9 Dec 2023, ended 0–4 with Leicester winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Plymouth in-play tendencies (79 games, 40 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Leicester in-play tendencies (79 games, 40 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Plymouth 56% versus Leicester 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Plymouth 56% | Leicester 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Plymouth 1.23 xG and Leicester 1.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Plymouth attack 0.934 / defence 1.364 | Leicester attack 1.131 / defence 0.985. League average goals — home 1.341 / away 1.171. Data: 42 Plymouth games / 41 Leicester games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Plymouth 26% | Draw 23% | Leicester 51%. Fair-value odds: Plymouth 3.85 | Draw 4.35 | Leicester 1.96. Leicester hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Leicester as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Leicester offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.04 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates are neutral: Plymouth 50% | Leicester 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Plymouth vs Leicester | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 43 | Venue: Home Park • Kick-off: Friday 12 Apr 2024, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Plymouth 26% | Draw 23% | Leicester 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 59% | xG Plymouth 1.23 / Leicester 1.81 • Poisson strength factors: Plymouth attack 0.934 / def 1.364 | Leicester attack 1.131 / def 0.985 | league avg home 1.341 / away 1.171 • Poisson stance: Leicester (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Plymouth xG
Expected Goals
1.81
Leicester xG
59%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Plymouth vs Leicester kick off?
Plymouth vs Leicester kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 12 April 2024 at Home Park.
What was the final score in Plymouth vs Leicester?
Plymouth 1 - 0 Leicester.
Where is Plymouth vs Leicester being played?
The match is being played at Home Park.
What competition is Plymouth vs Leicester part of?
Plymouth vs Leicester is a Regular Season - 43 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Plymouth vs Leicester?
Our statistical model gives Plymouth a 26% chance of winning, Leicester a 51% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Leicester the favourite.
Will both teams score in Plymouth vs Leicester?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Plymouth and Leicester will score (BTTS).
Will Plymouth vs Leicester have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Plymouth and Leicester?
Record (1 meetings): Plymouth 0W | Draws 0 | Leicester 1W.
What form are Plymouth and Leicester in?
Plymouth (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-L-W-D. Leicester (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Plymouth's attack at 0.93x the league average against Leicester's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.23 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Leicester's attack versus Plymouth's defence, projects 1.81 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Leicester Win
26%
3.84
23%
4.34
51%
1.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
0 – 1
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Plymouth xG
Total xG
3.04
1.81
Leicester xG
3.84
26%
Home win
4.34
23%
Draw
1.97
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.45
Clean Sheet
16%
6.10
29%
3.43
Win to Nil
4%
23.40
15%
6.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 8.6 | 7.8 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 10.7 | 9.6 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 6.6 | 5.9 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Plymouth vs Leicester?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Plymouth and Leicester expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Plymouth and 1.81 for Leicester, a combined total of 3.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Plymouth vs Leicester?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Plymouth come into this having played 79 games, going 36W 19D 24L for 1.61 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-D.
On the other side, Leicester sit at 1.54 PPG from 79 outings (37W 11D 31L), a run that reads D-L-W-W-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Plymouth on 1.61 PPG, Leicester on 1.54. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Plymouth's home form reads 24W 6D 10L across 40 games on their own ground, a 1.95 PPG return.
Away from home, Leicester have taken 1.42 points per game from 40 outings (17W 6D 17L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Plymouth come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Plymouth are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Leicester are on 1.65 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 79 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Plymouth
Current Season
Leicester
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Plymouth and Leicester in coming into this match?
Plymouth have gone 36W 19D 24L in their last 79 games (1.61 PPG), while Leicester have gone 37W 11D 31L in their last 79 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Plymouth at home or Leicester away?
Plymouth's home record (1.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Plymouth at home: 1.95 PPG; Leicester away: 1.42 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Plymouth and Leicester runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Plymouth
0
Draws
1
Leicester
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Plymouth and Leicester?
From 2 meetings on record, Plymouth have won 1, Leicester have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Plymouth and Leicester last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2024, when Plymouth 1-0 Leicester.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Plymouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Leicester are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Plymouth 55%, Leicester 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Plymouth and 60% for Leicester. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Plymouth home games / Leicester away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Plymouth play Leicester?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of Plymouth's games and 62% of Leicester's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Plymouth vs Leicester usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Plymouth's matches and 60% of Leicester's.
Do Plymouth and Leicester tend to score early?
Plymouth have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Leicester in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Plymouth defy the odds to beat Leicester 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Plymouth beat Leicester 1-0 at Home Park, Regular Season - 43, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Plymouth 1.23 xG and Leicester 1.81 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Leicester landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plymouth attack 0.93 / defence 1.36 against Leicester attack 1.13 / defence 0.98, drawn from 42/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Plymouth 26% | Draw 23% | Leicester 51%, with Leicester to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual Plymouth win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plymouth 56%, Leicester 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Plymouth's trading profile (79 games, 40 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Leicester's trading profile (79 games, 40 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Plymouth 1.61 PPG, Leicester 1.54 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Plymouth win broke the near-deadlock. Plymouth (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.92 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line. Leicester (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.68 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.