Plymouth 0-5 Burnley – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Burnley at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Plymouth vs Burnley encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Championship clash, Regular Season - 28 as Plymouth welcome Burnley to Home Park. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 22 January 2025 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Plymouth — All Games: 0W 4D 6L from 10 Championship outings this season, averaging 0.40 points per game. Last five: L D D D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Plymouth, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Plymouth's form when playing at home: 3W 5D 2L across 10 games at Home Park this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — Plymouth are significantly better at Home Park than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Burnley stand at 5W 5D 0L from 10 Championship matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.30 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Burnley, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Burnley's away record: 6W 3D 1L from 10 road trips in Championship this season (2.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.30 conceded per game. 7 away clean sheets from 10 games (70%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form points away from home here. Burnley's 2.00 PPG return is 1.60 points per game ahead of Plymouth's 0.40 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Plymouth, 1 for Burnley and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 1 Oct 2024, ended 0–1 with Burnley winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Plymouth in-play and half-time data (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Burnley in-play and half-time data (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 38% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Plymouth 48% versus Burnley 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Plymouth 49% | Burnley 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Plymouth 0.75 xG and Burnley 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Plymouth attack 1.033 / defence 1.383 | Burnley attack 0.998 / defence 0.527. League average goals — home 1.380 / away 1.002. Burnley's defence strength of 0.527 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 73 Plymouth games / 27 Burnley games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Plymouth 19% | Draw 30% | Burnley 51%. Fair-value odds: Plymouth 5.26 | Draw 3.33 | Burnley 1.96. Burnley hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Burnley at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Burnley offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.13 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Plymouth 80% | Burnley 20%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Plymouth vs Burnley | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Home Park • Kick-off: Wednesday 22 Jan 2025, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Plymouth 19% | Draw 30% | Burnley 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 41% | xG Plymouth 0.75 / Burnley 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Plymouth attack 1.033 / def 1.383 | Burnley attack 0.998 / def 0.527 | league avg home 1.380 / away 1.002 • Poisson stance: Burnley (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.75
Plymouth xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Burnley xG
41%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Plymouth vs Burnley kick off?
Plymouth vs Burnley kicked off at 20:00 on Wednesday 22 January 2025 at Home Park.
What was the final score in Plymouth vs Burnley?
Plymouth 0 - 5 Burnley.
Where is Plymouth vs Burnley being played?
The match is being played at Home Park.
What competition is Plymouth vs Burnley part of?
Plymouth vs Burnley is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Plymouth vs Burnley?
Our statistical model gives Plymouth a 19% chance of winning, Burnley a 51% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Burnley the favourite.
Will both teams score in Plymouth vs Burnley?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Plymouth and Burnley will score (BTTS).
Will Plymouth vs Burnley have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Plymouth and Burnley?
Record (1 meetings): Plymouth 0W | Draws 0 | Burnley 1W.
What form are Plymouth and Burnley in?
Plymouth (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-D-D-D-L. Burnley (all comps): 5W-5D-0L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.30 | L5 W-D-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Plymouth's attack rating (1.03) and Burnley's defence rating (0.53), the model arrives at 0.75 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Burnley's attack versus Plymouth's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 73/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.9%), 0-0 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Burnley Win
19%
5.18
30%
3.35
51%
1.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.75
Plymouth xG
Total xG
2.13
1.38
Burnley xG
5.18
19%
Home win
3.35
30%
Draw
1.97
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.46
59%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
25%
3.98
47%
2.12
Win to Nil
5%
20.63
24%
4.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.8 | 16.4 | 11.3 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 12.3 | 8.5 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 4.6 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Plymouth vs Burnley?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Plymouth and Burnley expected to score?
The model projects 0.75 expected goals for Plymouth and 1.38 for Burnley, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Plymouth vs Burnley?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 65 outings, Plymouth have picked up 0.95 PPG on a 14W 20D 31L record — L-D-D-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Plymouth is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Burnley's form line: 19W 20D 26L from 65 games, 1.18 PPG, last five W-D-D-W-D. The sample for Burnley is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Plymouth on 0.95 PPG, Burnley on 1.18. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Plymouth have posted 1.38 PPG from 32 outings (11W 11D 10L). That's noticeably better than their 0.95 PPG overall — Plymouth are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Burnley have gone 11W 8D 13L from 32 away games — 1.28 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Plymouth are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.72 conceded per game recently; Burnley are on 1.11 scored and 1.34 conceded.
Last 65 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Plymouth
Blended
Burnley
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Plymouth and Burnley in coming into this match?
Plymouth have gone 14W 20D 31L in their last 65 games (0.95 PPG), while Burnley have gone 19W 20D 26L in their last 65 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Plymouth at home or Burnley away?
Plymouth's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Plymouth at home: 1.38 PPG; Burnley away: 1.28 PPG.
Have Plymouth or Burnley been keeping clean sheets recently?
Plymouth have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Burnley in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 January 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Plymouth
0
Draws
2
Burnley
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Plymouth and Burnley?
From 2 meetings on record, Plymouth have won 0, Burnley have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Plymouth and Burnley last play each other?
They last met on 22 January 2025, when Plymouth 0-5 Burnley.
Who has won more matches between Plymouth and Burnley?
Burnley have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Plymouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Burnley see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Plymouth 59%, Burnley 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Plymouth) and 44% (Burnley).
On the defensive side: Burnley in 31%; Burnley in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Plymouth home games / Burnley away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Plymouth play Burnley?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Plymouth's recent matches and 47% of Burnley's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Plymouth vs Burnley usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Plymouth's recent games and 44% of Burnley's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Plymouth and Burnley tend to score early?
Plymouth have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Burnley in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Burnley run riot with a 0-5 hammering of Plymouth.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Burnley beat Plymouth 0-5 at Home Park, Regular Season - 28, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Plymouth 0.75 xG and Burnley 1.38 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 0-5 for 5 actual goals. Burnley outscored their 1.38 projection by 3.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plymouth attack 1.03 / defence 1.38 against Burnley attack 1.00 / defence 0.53, drawn from 73/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Plymouth 19% | Draw 30% | Burnley 51%, with Burnley to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plymouth 49%, Burnley 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Plymouth's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Burnley's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Plymouth 0.95 PPG, Burnley 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Burnley win broke the near-deadlock. Plymouth (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.56 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.56 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Burnley (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.16 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.22 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.