Norwich 4-1 Burnley – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Norwich at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Norwich vs Burnley encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Championship clash, Regular Season - 3 as Norwich welcome Burnley to Carrow Road. Kick-off is set for Saturday 29 August 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Norwich — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Championship outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: W D L L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Norwich have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Carrow Road, Norwich have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Championship games this season, Burnley have recorded 0W 3D 7L from 10 outings — 0.30 PPG. Last five: D L D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Burnley have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Burnley have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Norwich have the edge — a 1.10 PPG advantage (1.40 vs 0.30) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Norwich register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Burnley in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
Burnley have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the last 6 encounters against Norwich's 1 victories.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Apr 2025, ended 1–2 with Burnley winning.
It is worth noting that Burnley have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 6 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Data
Norwich trading profile (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Burnley trading profile (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Norwich 58% versus Burnley 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Norwich 50% | Burnley 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Norwich 1.74 xG and Burnley 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Norwich attack 0.963 / defence 1.029 | Burnley attack 0.845 / defence 1.334. League average goals — home 1.352 / away 1.315. Burnley bring a strong defensive rating of 1.334 — this is suppressing Norwich's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 48 Norwich games / 2 Burnley games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Norwich 48% | Draw 30% | Burnley 22%. Fair-value odds: Norwich 2.08 | Draw 3.33 | Burnley 4.55. Norwich hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
Burnley lead the H2H ledger, but Norwich carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Norwich at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Norwich offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.88 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Norwich 60% | Burnley 70% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Norwich vs Burnley | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Carrow Road • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Aug 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Norwich 48% | Draw 30% | Burnley 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 59% | xG Norwich 1.74 / Burnley 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Norwich attack 0.963 / def 1.029 | Burnley attack 0.845 / def 1.334 | league avg home 1.352 / away 1.315 • Poisson stance: Norwich (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.74
Norwich xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Burnley xG
59%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Norwich vs Burnley kick off?
Norwich vs Burnley kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 29 August 2026 at Carrow Road.
What was the final score in Norwich vs Burnley?
Norwich 4 - 1 Burnley.
Where is Norwich vs Burnley being played?
The match is being played at Carrow Road.
What competition is Norwich vs Burnley part of?
Norwich vs Burnley is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Norwich vs Burnley?
Our statistical model gives Norwich a 48% chance of winning, Burnley a 22% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Norwich the favourite.
Will both teams score in Norwich vs Burnley?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Norwich and Burnley will score (BTTS).
Will Norwich vs Burnley have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Norwich and Burnley?
Record (6 meetings): Norwich 1W | Draws 1 | Burnley 4W.
What form are Norwich and Burnley in?
Norwich (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-L-L-L. Burnley (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Norwich's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against Burnley's defensive record (1.33x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.74. The same calculation in reverse, Burnley's attack versus Norwich's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (48/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Norwich Win
48%
2.07
30%
3.37
22%
4.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.74
Norwich xG
Total xG
2.88
1.14
Burnley xG
2.07
48%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
4.53
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.45
Clean Sheet
32%
3.14
18%
5.68
Win to Nil
15%
6.51
4%
25.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 6.4 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 11.1 | 6.4 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.7 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 5.6 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Norwich vs Burnley?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Norwich and Burnley expected to score?
The model projects 1.74 expected goals for Norwich and 1.14 for Burnley, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Norwich vs Burnley?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Norwich's recent record stands at 17W 6D 17L from 40 games, a 1.42 PPG return, with W-D-L-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Norwich, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Burnley, meanwhile, have gone 4W 11D 25L across 40 games — 0.57 PPG, with D-L-D-D-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Burnley, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Norwich by 0.85 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Burnley heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Norwich have managed 9W 3D 8L from 20 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Burnley's away record stands at 2W 3D 15L across 20 trips, a 0.45 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Norwich come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Norwich are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Burnley are on 1.02 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Burnley in 60%.
Last 40 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Norwich
Early Season
Burnley
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Norwich and Burnley in coming into this match?
Norwich have gone 17W 6D 17L in their last 40 games (1.42 PPG), while Burnley have gone 4W 11D 25L in their last 40 (0.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Norwich at home or Burnley away?
Norwich's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Norwich at home: 1.50 PPG; Burnley away: 0.45 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Norwich and Burnley runs to 7 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Premier League, Championship all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 29 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Feb 2023, when Burnley won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Norwich's record when hosting Burnley specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
2
Norwich
1
Draws
4
Burnley
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Norwich and Burnley?
From 7 meetings on record, Norwich have won 2, Burnley have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Norwich and Burnley last play each other?
They last met on 29 August 2026, when Norwich 4-1 Burnley.
Who has won more matches between Norwich and Burnley?
Burnley have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Norwich see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Burnley are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Norwich at 55%, Burnley at 75%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Norwich) and 70% (Burnley). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 5% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Norwich home games / Burnley away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Norwich play Burnley?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of Norwich's games and 75% of Burnley's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Norwich vs Burnley usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 40% of Norwich's matches and 70% of Burnley's.
Do Norwich and Burnley tend to score early?
Norwich have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Burnley in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Norwich run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Burnley.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Norwich beat Burnley 4-1 at Carrow Road, Regular Season - 3, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Norwich 1.74 xG and Burnley 1.14 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Norwich beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Norwich attack 0.96 / defence 1.03 against Burnley attack 0.84 / defence 1.33, drawn from 48/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Norwich 48% | Draw 30% | Burnley 22%, with Norwich to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Norwich 50%, Burnley 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Norwich's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Burnley's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Norwich arrived the stronger side — 1.42 PPG against 0.57. Form held, and they took the win. Norwich (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm. Burnley (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.45 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.