Millwall 1-1 Sunderland – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Sunderland at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Millwall vs Sunderland fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
The Den plays host to Millwall versus Sunderland in Championship, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off: Saturday 2 December 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Millwall have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Championship outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: D L W L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Millwall, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Millwall at The Den this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 home games — 0.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Sunderland (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Championship outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: W D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Sunderland, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sunderland's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.90 PPG for Millwall against 1.30 for Sunderland. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Millwall 0W, Sunderland 1W, 1D.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Feb 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Millwall half-time and goal-timing data (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Sunderland half-time and goal-timing data (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Millwall 41% versus Sunderland 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Millwall 44% | Sunderland 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Millwall 0.84 xG and Sunderland 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Millwall attack 0.692 / defence 1.255 | Sunderland attack 0.909 / defence 0.860. League average goals — home 1.416 / away 1.213. Millwall's attack strength of 0.692 is below the league average — the 0.84 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 64 Millwall games / 64 Sunderland games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Millwall 23% | Draw 28% | Sunderland 50%. Fair-value odds: Millwall 4.35 | Draw 3.57 | Sunderland 2.00. Sunderland hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sunderland are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sunderland if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.23 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates corroborate: Millwall 30% | Sunderland 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Millwall vs Sunderland | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: The Den • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Dec 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Millwall 23% | Draw 28% | Sunderland 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 43% | xG Millwall 0.84 / Sunderland 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Millwall attack 0.692 / def 1.255 | Sunderland attack 0.909 / def 0.860 | league avg home 1.416 / away 1.213 • Poisson stance: Sunderland (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.84
Millwall xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Sunderland xG
43%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Millwall vs Sunderland kick off?
Millwall vs Sunderland kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 2 December 2023 at The Den.
What was the final score in Millwall vs Sunderland?
Millwall 1 - 1 Sunderland.
Where is Millwall vs Sunderland being played?
The match is being played at The Den.
What competition is Millwall vs Sunderland part of?
Millwall vs Sunderland is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Millwall vs Sunderland?
Our statistical model gives Millwall a 23% chance of winning, Sunderland a 50% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Sunderland the favourite.
Will both teams score in Millwall vs Sunderland?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Millwall and Sunderland will score (BTTS).
Will Millwall vs Sunderland have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Millwall and Sunderland?
Record (2 meetings): Millwall 0W | Draws 1 | Sunderland 1W.
What form are Millwall and Sunderland in?
Millwall (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-W-L-L. Sunderland (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Millwall's attack rating (0.69) and Sunderland's defence rating (0.86), the model arrives at 0.84 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Sunderland's attack (0.91x) against Millwall's defence (1.25x) — and the away total comes out at 1.38.
These ratings are built from 64/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-1 (13.3%), 0-0 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sunderland Win
23%
4.37
28%
3.63
50%
2.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
10.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.84
Millwall xG
Total xG
2.23
1.38
Sunderland xG
4.37
23%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
2.02
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.34
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
25%
3.99
43%
2.32
Win to Nil
6%
17.46
21%
4.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.8 | 14.9 | 10.3 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.6 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 5.3 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Millwall vs Sunderland?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Millwall and Sunderland expected to score?
The model projects 0.84 expected goals for Millwall and 1.38 for Sunderland, a combined total of 2.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Millwall vs Sunderland?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Millwall come into this having played 64 games, going 24W 16D 24L for 1.38 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-L-L. The sample for Millwall is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sunderland sit at 1.47 PPG from 64 outings (26W 16D 22L), a run that reads W-D-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Sunderland is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.38 PPG for Millwall against 1.47 for Sunderland. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Millwall's home form reads 13W 7D 12L across 32 games on their own ground, a 1.44 PPG return.
Away from home, Sunderland have taken 1.47 points per game from 32 outings (13W 8D 11L).
Attack vs Defence
Millwall are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Sunderland are on 1.47 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Last 64 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Millwall
Blended
Sunderland
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Millwall and Sunderland in coming into this match?
Millwall have gone 24W 16D 24L in their last 64 games (1.38 PPG), while Sunderland have gone 26W 16D 22L in their last 64 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Millwall at home or Sunderland away?
Sunderland's away record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Millwall at home: 1.44 PPG; Sunderland away: 1.47 PPG.
Have Millwall or Sunderland been keeping clean sheets recently?
Millwall have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Sunderland in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 March 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sunderland won 3-0 on 3 Dec 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Millwall have gone 0W 3D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Sunderland — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Millwall
3
Draws
2
Sunderland
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Millwall and Sunderland?
From 6 meetings on record, Millwall have won 1, Sunderland have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Millwall and Sunderland last play each other?
They last met on 29 March 2025, when Sunderland 1-0 Millwall.
Who has won more matches between Millwall and Sunderland?
Sunderland have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Millwall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Sunderland are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Millwall 38%, Sunderland 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Millwall) and 50% (Sunderland).
On the defensive side: Millwall keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Sunderland in 34%; Millwall have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Millwall home games / Sunderland away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Millwall play Sunderland?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Millwall's recent matches and 50% of Sunderland's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Millwall vs Sunderland usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Millwall's recent games and 50% of Sunderland's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Millwall and Sunderland tend to score early?
Millwall have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Sunderland in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Millwall and Sunderland share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Millwall and Sunderland finished level at 1-1 at The Den, Regular Season - 19, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Millwall 0.84 xG and Sunderland 1.38 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Millwall attack 0.69 / defence 1.25 against Sunderland attack 0.91 / defence 0.86, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Millwall 23% | Draw 28% | Sunderland 50%, with Sunderland to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Millwall 44%, Sunderland 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Millwall's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Sunderland's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Millwall 1.38 PPG, Sunderland 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.