Millwall 1-1 Burnley – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Millwall at 36%, yet in-form Burnley provide a compelling counter-argument — this Millwall vs Burnley fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
The Den plays host to Millwall versus Burnley in Championship, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off: Tuesday 21 February 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Millwall (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Championship fixtures this term — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D W L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Millwall's home record at The Den: 6W 4D 0L from 10 Championship appearances (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at The Den.
Burnley have collected 2.80 PPG across 10 Championship outings this season: 9W 1D 0L. Last five: W W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Burnley's away record: 7W 2D 1L from 10 road trips in Championship this season (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 2.30 is notably below their overall 2.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Burnley are 1.00 PPG clear of Millwall in recent Championship fixtures (2.80 vs 1.80). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Millwall lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Aug 2022, ended 0–2 with Burnley winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Millwall — key trading statistics (70 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Burnley — key trading statistics (70 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Millwall 43% versus Burnley 51%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Millwall 37% | Burnley 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Millwall 1.21 xG and Burnley 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Millwall attack 1.181 / defence 0.849 | Burnley attack 1.257 / defence 0.825. League average goals — home 1.240 / away 1.112. Burnley have an above-average attack strength of 1.257 — the away xG of 1.19 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 77 Millwall games / 32 Burnley games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Millwall 36% | Draw 29% | Burnley 35%. Fair-value odds: Millwall 2.78 | Draw 3.45 | Burnley 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Millwall are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Burnley (2.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Millwall if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.39 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates are neutral: Millwall 50% | Burnley 50%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Millwall vs Burnley | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: The Den • Kick-off: Tuesday 21 Feb 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Millwall 36% | Draw 29% | Burnley 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG Millwall 1.21 / Burnley 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Millwall attack 1.181 / def 0.849 | Burnley attack 1.257 / def 0.825 | league avg home 1.240 / away 1.112 • Poisson stance: Millwall (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Millwall xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Burnley xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Millwall vs Burnley kick off?
Millwall vs Burnley kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 21 February 2023 at The Den.
What was the final score in Millwall vs Burnley?
Millwall 1 - 1 Burnley.
Where is Millwall vs Burnley being played?
The match is being played at The Den.
What competition is Millwall vs Burnley part of?
Millwall vs Burnley is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Millwall vs Burnley?
Our statistical model gives Millwall a 36% chance of winning, Burnley a 35% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Millwall the favourite.
Will both teams score in Millwall vs Burnley?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Millwall and Burnley will score (BTTS).
Will Millwall vs Burnley have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Millwall and Burnley?
Record (1 meetings): Millwall 0W | Draws 0 | Burnley 1W.
What form are Millwall and Burnley in?
Millwall (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-W-L-W. Burnley (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Millwall's attacking strength (1.18x league average) is weighed against Burnley's defensive record (0.82x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.21. Flip it around — Burnley's attack (1.26x) against Millwall's defence (0.85x) — and the away total comes out at 1.19.
These ratings are built from 77/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.8%), 1-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Millwall Win
36%
2.77
29%
3.45
35%
2.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Millwall xG
Total xG
2.39
1.19
Burnley xG
2.77
36%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
2.86
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
31%
3.27
30%
3.35
Win to Nil
11%
9.08
10%
9.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 10.8 | 6.4 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 13.1 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 7.9 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Millwall vs Burnley?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Millwall and Burnley expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Millwall and 1.19 for Burnley, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Millwall vs Burnley?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Millwall's recent record stands at 31W 18D 21L from 70 games, a 1.59 PPG return, with W-D-W-L-W in the last five.
Burnley, meanwhile, have gone 28W 23D 19L across 70 games — 1.53 PPG, with W-W-W-D-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.59 PPG for Millwall against 1.53 for Burnley. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Millwall have managed 21W 8D 5L from 34 games — 2.09 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.59 PPG overall — Millwall are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Burnley's away record stands at 11W 12D 11L across 34 trips, a 1.32 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Millwall come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Millwall are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 0.97 conceded per game recently; Burnley are on 1.39 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Last 70 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Millwall
Current Season
Burnley
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Millwall and Burnley in coming into this match?
Millwall have gone 31W 18D 21L in their last 70 games (1.59 PPG), while Burnley have gone 28W 23D 19L in their last 70 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Millwall at home or Burnley away?
Millwall's home record (2.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Millwall at home: 2.09 PPG; Burnley away: 1.32 PPG.
Have Millwall or Burnley been keeping clean sheets recently?
Millwall have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Burnley in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 May 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Millwall have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Burnley — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Millwall
1
Draws
2
Burnley
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Millwall and Burnley?
From 4 meetings on record, Millwall have won 1, Burnley have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Millwall and Burnley last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2025, when Burnley 3-1 Millwall.
Who has won more matches between Millwall and Burnley?
Burnley have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Millwall see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Burnley are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Millwall 38%, Burnley 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Millwall) and 38% (Burnley).
On the defensive side: Millwall keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Millwall have failed to score in 26% of games; Burnley in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Millwall home games / Burnley away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Millwall play Burnley?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Millwall's recent matches and 53% of Burnley's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Millwall vs Burnley usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Millwall's recent games and 38% of Burnley's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Millwall and Burnley tend to score early?
Millwall have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Burnley in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Millwall and Burnley share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at The Den, Regular Season - 29, as Millwall and Burnley drew 1-1 in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Millwall 1.21 xG and Burnley 1.19 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Millwall attack 1.18 / defence 0.85 against Burnley attack 1.26 / defence 0.82, drawn from 77/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Millwall 36% | Draw 29% | Burnley 35%, with Millwall to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Millwall 37%, Burnley 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Millwall's trading profile (70 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Burnley's trading profile (70 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Millwall 1.59 PPG, Burnley 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.