Middlesbrough 1-0 Swansea – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Middlesbrough at 43% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Middlesbrough vs Swansea encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Middlesbrough and Swansea meet at Riverside Stadium in Championship, Regular Season - 1. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 10 August 2024 at 12:30 UTC.
Form
Middlesbrough (all games): 5W 4D 1L across 10 Championship fixtures this term — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D D L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Middlesbrough haven't played a Championship game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Middlesbrough at Riverside Stadium this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Swansea have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Championship outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W W W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Swansea haven't played a Championship game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Swansea's form when playing away from home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward Middlesbrough. A 0.50 PPG lead over Swansea (1.90 vs 1.40) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Middlesbrough have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Swansea in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Historically, Middlesbrough have had the better of this match-up — 5 wins from 6 meetings, with Swansea managing just 0 victories and 1 draws shared.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Apr 2024, ended 2–0 with Middlesbrough winning.
The historical record gives Middlesbrough a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 6 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading
Middlesbrough half-time and goal-timing data (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games).
Swansea half-time and goal-timing data (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Middlesbrough 59% versus Swansea 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Middlesbrough 52% | Swansea 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Middlesbrough 1.52 xG and Swansea 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Middlesbrough attack 1.052 / defence 1.007 | Swansea attack 1.069 / defence 0.994. League average goals — home 1.449 / away 1.198. Data: 46 Middlesbrough games / 46 Swansea games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Middlesbrough 43% | Draw 25% | Swansea 32%. Fair-value odds: Middlesbrough 2.33 | Draw 4.00 | Swansea 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Middlesbrough at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Middlesbrough if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.80 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Middlesbrough 60% | Swansea 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (46 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Middlesbrough vs Swansea | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Riverside Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Aug 2024, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Middlesbrough 43% | Draw 25% | Swansea 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG Middlesbrough 1.52 / Swansea 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Middlesbrough attack 1.052 / def 1.007 | Swansea attack 1.069 / def 0.994 | league avg home 1.449 / away 1.198 • Poisson stance: Middlesbrough (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Middlesbrough xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Swansea xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Middlesbrough vs Swansea kick off?
Middlesbrough vs Swansea kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 10 August 2024 at Riverside Stadium.
What was the final score in Middlesbrough vs Swansea?
Middlesbrough 1 - 0 Swansea.
Where is Middlesbrough vs Swansea being played?
The match is being played at Riverside Stadium.
What competition is Middlesbrough vs Swansea part of?
Middlesbrough vs Swansea is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Middlesbrough vs Swansea?
Our statistical model gives Middlesbrough a 43% chance of winning, Swansea a 32% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Middlesbrough the favourite.
Will both teams score in Middlesbrough vs Swansea?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Middlesbrough and Swansea will score (BTTS).
Will Middlesbrough vs Swansea have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Middlesbrough and Swansea?
Record (6 meetings): Middlesbrough 5W | Draws 1 | Swansea 0W.
What form are Middlesbrough and Swansea in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Middlesbrough (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Middlesbrough's attack rating (1.05) and Swansea's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 1.52 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Swansea's attack (1.07x) against Middlesbrough's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.29.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-0 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Middlesbrough Win
43%
2.35
25%
3.99
32%
3.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Middlesbrough xG
Total xG
2.80
1.29
Swansea xG
2.35
43%
Home win
3.99
25%
Draw
3.09
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.77
43%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
28%
3.63
22%
4.55
Win to Nil
12%
8.52
7%
14.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 7.8 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 11.8 | 7.6 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.0 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Middlesbrough vs Swansea?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Middlesbrough and Swansea expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Middlesbrough and 1.29 for Swansea, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Middlesbrough vs Swansea?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Middlesbrough come into this having played 46 games, going 20W 9D 17L for 1.50 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-W-W. Middlesbrough haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
On the other side, Swansea sit at 1.24 PPG from 46 outings (15W 12D 19L), a run that reads W-W-W-D-L across their last five. Swansea haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.50 PPG for Middlesbrough against 1.24 for Swansea. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Middlesbrough's home form reads 10W 4D 9L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.48 PPG return.
Away from home, Swansea have taken 1.22 points per game from 23 outings (7W 7D 9L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Middlesbrough are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Swansea are on 1.28 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Last 46 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Middlesbrough
Pre-Season
Swansea
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Middlesbrough and Swansea in coming into this match?
Middlesbrough have gone 20W 9D 17L in their last 46 games (1.50 PPG), while Swansea have gone 15W 12D 19L in their last 46 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Middlesbrough at home or Swansea away?
Middlesbrough's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Middlesbrough at home: 1.48 PPG; Swansea away: 1.22 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 6 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Middlesbrough have gone 5W 0D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Swansea — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Middlesbrough
2
Draws
1
Swansea
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Middlesbrough and Swansea?
From 10 meetings on record, Middlesbrough have won 7, Swansea have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Middlesbrough and Swansea last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2026, when Swansea 2-2 Middlesbrough.
Who has won more matches between Middlesbrough and Swansea?
Middlesbrough have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Middlesbrough are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Swansea are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Middlesbrough 44%, Swansea 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Middlesbrough) and 61% (Swansea).
On the defensive side: Middlesbrough keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Middlesbrough have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Middlesbrough home games / Swansea away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Middlesbrough play Swansea?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Middlesbrough's recent matches and 65% of Swansea's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Middlesbrough vs Swansea usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Middlesbrough's recent games and 61% of Swansea's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Middlesbrough and Swansea tend to score early?
Middlesbrough have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Swansea in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Middlesbrough edge out Swansea 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Middlesbrough beat Swansea 1-0 at Riverside Stadium, Regular Season - 1, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Middlesbrough 1.52 xG and Swansea 1.29 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Swansea landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Middlesbrough attack 1.05 / defence 1.01 against Swansea attack 1.07 / defence 0.99, drawn from 46/46 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Middlesbrough 43% | Draw 25% | Swansea 32%, with Middlesbrough to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Middlesbrough 52%, Swansea 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Middlesbrough's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Swansea's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Middlesbrough 1.50 PPG, Swansea 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Middlesbrough win broke the near-deadlock. Middlesbrough (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.13 average — tighter than their form line. Swansea (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.