Leicester 0-1 Swansea – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Leicester at 37% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Leicester vs Swansea encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Leicester and Swansea meet at King Power Stadium in Championship, Regular Season - 42. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 11 April 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Leicester (all games): 1W 6D 3L across 10 Championship fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L D D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Leicester at King Power Stadium this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Swansea have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Championship outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: W L L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Championship this season, Swansea have posted 3W 1D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.90 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Across 3 previous meetings, Leicester are the stronger side on paper — 3 victories to 0, with 0 draws in between.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Oct 2025, ended 3–1 with Leicester winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Leicester and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 3 meetings, combined with an average of 4.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Data
Leicester goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (79 games, 39 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Swansea goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (79 games, 39 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Leicester 62% versus Swansea 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Leicester 60% | Swansea 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Leicester 1.56 xG and Swansea 1.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Leicester attack 1.007 / defence 1.402 | Swansea attack 0.917 / defence 1.219. League average goals — home 1.272 / away 1.187. Swansea bring a strong defensive rating of 1.219 — this is suppressing Leicester's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 41 Leicester games / 87 Swansea games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Leicester 37% | Draw 27% | Swansea 36%. Fair-value odds: Leicester 2.70 | Draw 3.70 | Swansea 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.56 / 1.53) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Leicester are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Leicester if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.09 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Leicester 70% | Swansea 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Leicester vs Swansea | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 42 | Venue: King Power Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Apr 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Leicester 37% | Draw 27% | Swansea 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 64% | xG Leicester 1.56 / Swansea 1.53 • Poisson strength factors: Leicester attack 1.007 / def 1.402 | Swansea attack 0.917 / def 1.219 | league avg home 1.272 / away 1.187 • Poisson stance: Leicester (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Leicester xG
Expected Goals
1.53
Swansea xG
64%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Leicester vs Swansea kick off?
Leicester vs Swansea kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 11 April 2026 at King Power Stadium.
What was the final score in Leicester vs Swansea?
Leicester 0 - 1 Swansea.
Where is Leicester vs Swansea being played?
The match is being played at King Power Stadium.
What competition is Leicester vs Swansea part of?
Leicester vs Swansea is a Regular Season - 42 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Leicester vs Swansea?
Our statistical model gives Leicester a 37% chance of winning, Swansea a 36% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Leicester the favourite.
Will both teams score in Leicester vs Swansea?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Leicester and Swansea will score (BTTS).
Will Leicester vs Swansea have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Leicester and Swansea?
Record (3 meetings): Leicester 3W | Draws 0 | Swansea 0W.
What form are Leicester and Swansea in?
Leicester (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-D-D-D. Swansea (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Leicester's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against Swansea's defensive record (1.22x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.56. Flip it around — Swansea's attack (0.92x) against Leicester's defence (1.40x) — and the away total comes out at 1.53.
These ratings are built from 41/87 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Leicester Win
37%
2.70
27%
3.64
36%
2.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
1 – 2
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Leicester xG
Total xG
3.09
1.53
Swansea xG
2.70
37%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
2.81
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.75
Clean Sheet
22%
4.60
21%
4.76
Win to Nil
8%
12.45
7%
13.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 7.0 | 5.3 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 10.9 | 8.3 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.5 | 6.5 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.4 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Leicester vs Swansea?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Leicester and Swansea expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Leicester and 1.53 for Swansea, a combined total of 3.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Leicester vs Swansea?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Leicester's recent record stands at 17W 21D 41L from 79 games, a 0.91 PPG return, with W-L-D-D-D in the last five.
Swansea, meanwhile, have gone 29W 17D 33L across 79 games — 1.32 PPG, with W-L-L-D-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Swansea by 0.41 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Leicester heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Leicester have managed 11W 8D 20L from 39 games — 1.05 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Swansea's away record stands at 11W 7D 21L across 39 trips, a 1.03 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Leicester are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.81 conceded per game recently; Swansea are on 1.16 scored and 1.32 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Leicester have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 79 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Leicester
Current Season
Swansea
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Leicester and Swansea in coming into this match?
Leicester have gone 17W 21D 41L in their last 79 games (0.91 PPG), while Swansea have gone 29W 17D 33L in their last 79 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Leicester at home or Swansea away?
Leicester's home record (1.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Leicester at home: 1.05 PPG; Swansea away: 1.03 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since October 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Leicester have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Swansea — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Leicester
0
Draws
1
Swansea
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Leicester and Swansea?
From 4 meetings on record, Leicester have won 3, Swansea have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Leicester and Swansea last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Leicester 0-1 Swansea.
Who has won more matches between Leicester and Swansea?
Leicester have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Leicester are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Swansea are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Leicester 54%, Swansea 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 51% (Leicester) and 51% (Swansea).
On the defensive side: Leicester have failed to score in 33% of games; Swansea in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Leicester home games / Swansea away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Leicester play Swansea?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Leicester's recent matches and 46% of Swansea's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Leicester vs Swansea usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 51% of Leicester's recent games and 51% of Swansea's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Leicester and Swansea tend to score early?
Leicester have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Swansea in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Swansea defy the odds to beat Leicester 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Swansea beat Leicester 0-1 at King Power Stadium, Regular Season - 42, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Leicester 1.56 xG and Swansea 1.53 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Leicester fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Leicester attack 1.01 / defence 1.40 against Swansea attack 0.92 / defence 1.22, drawn from 41/87 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Leicester 37% | Draw 27% | Swansea 36%, with Leicester to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Swansea win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Leicester 60%, Swansea 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Leicester's trading profile (79 games, 39 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Swansea's trading profile (79 games, 39 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Swansea arrived the stronger side — 1.32 PPG against 0.91. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Leicester (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward. Swansea (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.49 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.