Leicester 2-1 Derby – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Derby at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Leicester vs Derby fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Leicester host Derby at King Power Stadium in Championship, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 29 December 2025 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Leicester stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Championship matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Leicester, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Leicester have posted 3W 4D 3L at King Power Stadium — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Championship games this season, Derby have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L D W D D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.40. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Derby, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Derby's away record: 5W 3D 2L from 10 road trips in Championship this season (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Leicester 1.40 PPG, Derby 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Leicester have won 1, Derby 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 6 Dec 2025, ended 3–1 with Leicester winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Leicester trading profile (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Derby trading profile (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Leicester 57% versus Derby 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Leicester 61% | Derby 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Leicester 1.13 xG and Derby 1.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Leicester attack 0.953 / defence 1.186 | Derby attack 1.181 / defence 0.855. League average goals — home 1.386 / away 1.159. Data: 23 Leicester games / 69 Derby games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Leicester 26% | Draw 27% | Derby 48%. Fair-value odds: Leicester 3.85 | Draw 3.70 | Derby 2.08. Derby hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Derby are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Derby offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.75 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Leicester 70% | Derby 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Leicester vs Derby | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: King Power Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 29 Dec 2025, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Leicester 26% | Draw 27% | Derby 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 55% | xG Leicester 1.13 / Derby 1.62 • Poisson strength factors: Leicester attack 0.953 / def 1.186 | Derby attack 1.181 / def 0.855 | league avg home 1.386 / away 1.159 • Poisson stance: Derby (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Leicester xG
Expected Goals
1.62
Derby xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Leicester vs Derby kick off?
Leicester vs Derby kicked off at 19:45 on Monday 29 December 2025 at King Power Stadium.
What was the final score in Leicester vs Derby?
Leicester 2 - 1 Derby.
Where is Leicester vs Derby being played?
The match is being played at King Power Stadium.
What competition is Leicester vs Derby part of?
Leicester vs Derby is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Leicester vs Derby?
Our statistical model gives Leicester a 26% chance of winning, Derby a 48% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Derby the favourite.
Will both teams score in Leicester vs Derby?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Leicester and Derby will score (BTTS).
Will Leicester vs Derby have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Leicester and Derby?
Record (1 meetings): Leicester 1W | Draws 0 | Derby 0W.
What form are Leicester and Derby in?
Leicester (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-D-W-L-L. Derby (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Leicester's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Derby's defensive record (0.85x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.13. The same calculation in reverse, Derby's attack versus Leicester's defence, projects 1.62 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 23/69 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-1 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Derby Win
26%
3.91
27%
3.77
48%
2.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Leicester xG
Total xG
2.75
1.62
Derby xG
3.91
26%
Home win
3.77
27%
Draw
2.09
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
20%
5.07
32%
3.10
Win to Nil
5%
19.81
15%
6.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 10.3 | 8.4 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 11.7 | 9.5 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 6.6 | 5.4 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Leicester vs Derby?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Leicester and Derby expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Leicester and 1.62 for Derby, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Leicester vs Derby?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Leicester's recent record stands at 14W 14D 33L from 61 games, a 0.92 PPG return, with W-D-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Leicester is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Derby, meanwhile, have gone 18W 19D 24L across 61 games — 1.20 PPG, with L-D-W-D-D in their last five. The sample for Derby is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Leicester on 0.92 PPG, Derby on 1.20. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Leicester have managed 8W 7D 15L from 30 games — 1.03 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Derby's away record stands at 9W 9D 12L across 30 trips, a 1.20 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Leicester are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.85 conceded per game recently; Derby are on 1.15 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Last 61 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Leicester
Blended
Derby
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Leicester and Derby in coming into this match?
Leicester have gone 14W 14D 33L in their last 61 games (0.92 PPG), while Derby have gone 18W 19D 24L in their last 61 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Leicester at home or Derby away?
Derby's away record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Leicester at home: 1.03 PPG; Derby away: 1.20 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 29 December 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Leicester
0
Draws
0
Derby
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Leicester and Derby?
From 2 meetings on record, Leicester have won 2, Derby have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Leicester and Derby last play each other?
They last met on 29 December 2025, when Leicester 2-1 Derby.
Who has won more matches between Leicester and Derby?
Leicester have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Leicester are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Derby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Leicester 50%, Derby 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Leicester) and 53% (Derby).
On the defensive side: Leicester have failed to score in 37% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Leicester home games / Derby away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Leicester play Derby?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Leicester's games and 67% of Derby's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Leicester vs Derby usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Leicester's recent games and 53% of Derby's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Leicester and Derby tend to score early?
Leicester have had a goal before half-time in 91% of their recent matches, Derby in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Leicester defy the odds to beat Derby 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Leicester beat Derby 2-1 at King Power Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Leicester 1.13 xG and Derby 1.62 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Leicester beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Leicester attack 0.95 / defence 1.19 against Derby attack 1.18 / defence 0.85, drawn from 23/69 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Leicester 26% | Draw 27% | Derby 48%, with Derby to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual Leicester win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Leicester 61%, Derby 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Leicester's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Derby's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Leicester 0.92 PPG, Derby 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Leicester win broke the near-deadlock. Leicester (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.