Leeds 2-0 Derby – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Leeds at 67% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Leeds vs Derby encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Elland Road plays host to Leeds versus Derby in Championship, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off: Saturday 7 December 2024 at 12:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Leeds have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Championship outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: L W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Leeds, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Leeds's form when playing at home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 games at Elland Road this term (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Elland Road. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Derby (all games): 2W 5D 3L across 10 Championship outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: W D D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Derby, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Derby's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 0.90 in Leeds's favour (2.00 vs 1.10) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading
Leeds half-time and goal-timing data (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
Derby half-time and goal-timing data (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Leeds 38% versus Derby 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Leeds 50% | Derby 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Leeds 1.96 xG and Derby 0.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Leeds attack 1.288 / defence 0.700 | Derby attack 0.905 / defence 1.133. League average goals — home 1.340 / away 1.055. Leeds carry an above-average attack strength of 1.288 — their λ of 1.96 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Leeds's defence rating of 0.700 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 64 Leeds games / 18 Derby games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Leeds 67% | Draw 22% | Derby 11%. Fair-value odds: Leeds 1.49 | Draw 4.55 | Derby 9.09. The model has a clear lean to Leeds (67%) — a 56pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Leeds are the pick at 67% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.62 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates corroborate: Leeds 20% | Derby 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Leeds vs Derby | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Elland Road • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Dec 2024, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Leeds 67% | Draw 22% | Derby 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 43% | xG Leeds 1.96 / Derby 0.67 • Poisson strength factors: Leeds attack 1.288 / def 0.700 | Derby attack 0.905 / def 1.133 | league avg home 1.340 / away 1.055 • Poisson stance: Leeds (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.96
Leeds xG
Expected Goals
0.67
Derby xG
43%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Leeds vs Derby kick off?
Leeds vs Derby kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 7 December 2024 at Elland Road.
What was the final score in Leeds vs Derby?
Leeds 2 - 0 Derby.
Where is Leeds vs Derby being played?
The match is being played at Elland Road.
What competition is Leeds vs Derby part of?
Leeds vs Derby is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Leeds vs Derby?
Our statistical model gives Leeds a 67% chance of winning, Derby a 11% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Leeds the favourite.
Will both teams score in Leeds vs Derby?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Leeds and Derby will score (BTTS).
Will Leeds vs Derby have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Leeds and Derby?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Leeds and Derby in?
Leeds (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-W-W-L. Derby (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Leeds's attacking strength (1.29x league average) is weighed against Derby's defensive record (1.13x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.96. Flip it around — Derby's attack (0.91x) against Leeds's defence (0.70x) — and the away total comes out at 0.67.
These ratings are built from 64/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.0%), 1-1 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Leeds Win
67%
1.50
22%
4.45
11%
9.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.9%
Home win
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.96
Leeds xG
Total xG
2.62
0.67
Derby xG
1.50
67%
Home win
4.45
22%
Draw
9.32
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.33
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
51%
1.95
14%
7.07
Win to Nil
34%
2.92
2%
65.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.2 | 9.5 | 3.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.9 | 9.3 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 9.0 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.4 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Leeds vs Derby?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Leeds and Derby expected to score?
The model projects 1.96 expected goals for Leeds and 0.67 for Derby, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Leeds vs Derby?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 64 outings, Leeds have picked up 1.98 PPG on a 38W 13D 13L record — L-W-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Leeds is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Derby's form line: 33W 13D 18L from 64 games, 1.75 PPG, last five W-D-D-L-L. The sample for Derby is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.98 PPG for Leeds against 1.75 for Derby. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Leeds have posted 2.38 PPG from 32 outings (24W 4D 4L).
On the road, Derby have gone 14W 7D 11L from 32 away games — 1.53 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Leeds come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Leeds are averaging 1.77 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game recently; Derby are on 1.56 scored and 0.95 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Leeds have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their games; Derby in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 64 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Leeds
Blended
Derby
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Leeds and Derby in coming into this match?
Leeds have gone 38W 13D 13L in their last 64 games (1.98 PPG), while Derby have gone 33W 13D 18L in their last 64 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Leeds at home or Derby away?
Leeds's home record (2.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Leeds at home: 2.38 PPG; Derby away: 1.53 PPG.
Have Leeds or Derby been keeping clean sheets recently?
Leeds have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their recent games, Derby in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 December 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Leeds
0
Draws
0
Derby
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Leeds and Derby?
From 2 meetings on record, Leeds have won 2, Derby have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Leeds and Derby last play each other?
They last met on 29 December 2024, when Derby 0-1 Leeds.
Who has won more matches between Leeds and Derby?
Leeds have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Leeds are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time.
Derby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Leeds 38%, Derby 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Leeds) and 50% (Derby).
On the defensive side: Leeds keep a clean sheet in 53% of their matches; Derby in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Leeds home games / Derby away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Leeds play Derby?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Leeds's recent matches and 50% of Derby's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Leeds vs Derby usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Leeds's recent games and 50% of Derby's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Leeds and Derby tend to score early?
Leeds have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Derby in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Leeds cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Derby.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Leeds beat Derby 2-0 at Elland Road, Regular Season - 19, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Leeds 1.96 xG and Derby 0.67 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Leeds attack 1.29 / defence 0.70 against Derby attack 0.91 / defence 1.13, drawn from 64/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Leeds 67% | Draw 22% | Derby 11%, with Leeds to win its most likely call at 67%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Leeds 50%, Derby 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Leeds's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and duly kept one.
Derby's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Leeds 1.98 PPG, Derby 1.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Leeds win broke the near-deadlock. Derby (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.44 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.