Ipswich 1-1 Preston – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ipswich at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ipswich vs Preston encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Portman Road plays host to Ipswich versus Preston in Championship, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off: Saturday 31 January 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Ipswich's overall Championship record this term: 7W 1D 2L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: W W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
In front of their own supporters this season, Ipswich have posted 7W 2D 1L at Portman Road — 2.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Portman Road. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Preston have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Championship outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: W W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Preston's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Championship this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 1.00 in Ipswich's favour (2.20 vs 1.20) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Ipswich 1W, Preston 2W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 23 Aug 2025, ended 0–1 with Preston winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Ipswich — key trading statistics (66 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
Preston — key trading statistics (66 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Ipswich 59% and Preston 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ipswich 56% | Preston 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ipswich 1.71 xG and Preston 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ipswich attack 1.232 / defence 0.780 | Preston attack 0.978 / defence 1.033. League average goals — home 1.342 / away 1.164. Ipswich's defence rating of 0.780 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 28 Ipswich games / 75 Preston games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ipswich 56% | Draw 26% | Preston 18%. Fair-value odds: Ipswich 1.79 | Draw 3.85 | Preston 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Ipswich (56%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ipswich are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.60 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 4.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates corroborate: Ipswich 30% | Preston 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ipswich vs Preston | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Portman Road • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Jan 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ipswich 56% | Draw 26% | Preston 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 49% | xG Ipswich 1.71 / Preston 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Ipswich attack 1.232 / def 0.780 | Preston attack 0.978 / def 1.033 | league avg home 1.342 / away 1.164 • Poisson stance: Ipswich (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
Ipswich xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Preston xG
49%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ipswich vs Preston kick off?
Ipswich vs Preston kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 31 January 2026 at Portman Road.
What was the final score in Ipswich vs Preston?
Ipswich 1 - 1 Preston.
Where is Ipswich vs Preston being played?
The match is being played at Portman Road.
What competition is Ipswich vs Preston part of?
Ipswich vs Preston is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Ipswich vs Preston?
Our statistical model gives Ipswich a 56% chance of winning, Preston a 18% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Ipswich the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ipswich vs Preston?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Ipswich and Preston will score (BTTS).
Will Ipswich vs Preston have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ipswich and Preston?
Record (3 meetings): Ipswich 1W | Draws 0 | Preston 2W.
What form are Ipswich and Preston in?
Ipswich (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-W-L. Preston (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Ipswich's attack rating (1.23) and Preston's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.71 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Preston's attack (0.98x) against Ipswich's defence (0.78x) — and the away total comes out at 0.89.
These ratings are built from 28/75 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.3%), 2-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ipswich Win
56%
1.80
26%
3.84
18%
5.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
2 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
Ipswich xG
Total xG
2.60
0.89
Preston xG
1.80
56%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
5.45
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
41%
2.43
18%
5.51
Win to Nil
23%
4.37
3%
30.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 6.6 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.7 | 11.3 | 5.0 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.9 | 9.7 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ipswich vs Preston?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Ipswich and Preston expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Ipswich and 0.89 for Preston, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Ipswich vs Preston?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Ipswich's recent record stands at 18W 18D 30L from 66 games, a 1.09 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-L in the last five.
Preston, meanwhile, have gone 19W 27D 20L across 66 games — 1.27 PPG, with W-W-L-L-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.09 PPG for Ipswich against 1.27 for Preston. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Ipswich have managed 11W 7D 14L from 32 games — 1.25 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Preston's away record stands at 8W 11D 13L across 32 trips, a 1.09 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Ipswich are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; Preston are on 1.17 scored and 1.21 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Preston in 64%.
Last 66 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ipswich
Current Season
Preston
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ipswich and Preston in coming into this match?
Ipswich have gone 18W 18D 30L in their last 66 games (1.09 PPG), while Preston have gone 19W 27D 20L in their last 66 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ipswich at home or Preston away?
Ipswich's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ipswich at home: 1.25 PPG; Preston away: 1.09 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ipswich have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Preston — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Ipswich
1
Draws
2
Preston
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ipswich and Preston?
From 4 meetings on record, Ipswich have won 1, Preston have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ipswich and Preston last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Ipswich 1-1 Preston.
Who has won more matches between Ipswich and Preston?
Preston have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Ipswich are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Preston are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ipswich 50%, Preston 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Ipswich) and 50% (Preston).
On the defensive side: Ipswich have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ipswich home games / Preston away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ipswich play Preston?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Ipswich's games and 62% of Preston's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ipswich vs Preston usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Ipswich's recent games and 50% of Preston's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ipswich and Preston tend to score early?
Ipswich have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Preston in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ipswich and Preston share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ipswich and Preston finished level at 1-1 at Portman Road, Regular Season - 30, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ipswich 1.71 xG and Preston 0.89 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ipswich attack 1.23 / defence 0.78 against Preston attack 0.98 / defence 1.03, drawn from 28/75 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ipswich 56% | Draw 26% | Preston 18%, with Ipswich to win its most likely call at 56%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ipswich 56%, Preston 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ipswich's trading profile (66 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Preston's trading profile (66 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ipswich 1.09 PPG, Preston 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.