Hull City 1-1 Plymouth – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hull City at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hull City vs Plymouth fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Championship encounter, Regular Season - 9 sees Plymouth travel to The MKM Stadium to take on Hull City. The game is scheduled for Saturday 30 September 2023, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hull City stand at 4W 5D 1L from 10 Championship matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W D D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Hull City, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hull City's home record at The MKM Stadium: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Championship appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at The MKM Stadium.
Plymouth — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Championship fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W L L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Plymouth, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Plymouth have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Hull City at 1.70 PPG versus Plymouth's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Data
Hull City trading profile (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Plymouth trading profile (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hull City 54% versus Plymouth 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hull City 43% | Plymouth 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hull City 1.73 xG and Plymouth 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hull City attack 0.913 / defence 0.891 | Plymouth attack 0.810 / defence 1.348. League average goals — home 1.406 / away 1.196. Plymouth bring a strong defensive rating of 1.348 — this is suppressing Hull City's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 54 Hull City games / 8 Plymouth games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hull City 57% | Draw 26% | Plymouth 17%. Fair-value odds: Hull City 1.75 | Draw 3.85 | Plymouth 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Hull City (57%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Hull City as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.59 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates are neutral: Hull City 50% | Plymouth 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hull City vs Plymouth | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: The MKM Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Sep 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hull City 57% | Draw 26% | Plymouth 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 49% | xG Hull City 1.73 / Plymouth 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Hull City attack 0.913 / def 0.891 | Plymouth attack 0.810 / def 1.348 | league avg home 1.406 / away 1.196 • Poisson stance: Hull City (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
Hull City xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Plymouth xG
49%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hull City vs Plymouth kick off?
Hull City vs Plymouth kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 30 September 2023 at The MKM Stadium.
What was the final score in Hull City vs Plymouth?
Hull City 1 - 1 Plymouth.
Where is Hull City vs Plymouth being played?
The match is being played at The MKM Stadium.
What competition is Hull City vs Plymouth part of?
Hull City vs Plymouth is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Hull City vs Plymouth?
Our statistical model gives Hull City a 57% chance of winning, Plymouth a 17% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Hull City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hull City vs Plymouth?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Hull City and Plymouth will score (BTTS).
Will Hull City vs Plymouth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hull City and Plymouth?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Hull City and Plymouth in?
Hull City (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-D-D-W. Plymouth (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Hull City's attack rating (0.91) and Plymouth's defence rating (1.35), the model arrives at 1.73 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Plymouth's attack versus Hull City's defence, projects 0.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.5%), 2-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hull City Win
57%
1.77
26%
3.80
17%
5.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
2 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
Hull City xG
Total xG
2.59
0.86
Plymouth xG
1.77
57%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
5.85
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
42%
2.37
18%
5.65
Win to Nil
24%
4.19
3%
33.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 6.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.9 | 11.2 | 4.8 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.2 | 9.7 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 6.5 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hull City vs Plymouth?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Hull City and Plymouth expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Hull City and 0.86 for Plymouth, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Hull City vs Plymouth?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 54 outings, Hull City have picked up 1.35 PPG on a 18W 19D 17L record — D-W-D-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Hull City is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Plymouth's form line: 34W 9D 11L from 54 games, 2.06 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-W. The sample for Plymouth is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Plymouth are the form team by 0.71 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Hull City.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Hull City have posted 1.44 PPG from 27 outings (10W 9D 8L).
On the road, Plymouth have gone 11W 8D 8L from 27 away games — 1.52 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 2.06 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Plymouth's season.
The Goals Picture
Hull City are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Plymouth are on 1.81 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Defensively: Plymouth in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hull City
Blended
Plymouth
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hull City and Plymouth in coming into this match?
Hull City have gone 18W 19D 17L in their last 54 games (1.35 PPG), while Plymouth have gone 34W 9D 11L in their last 54 (2.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hull City at home or Plymouth away?
Plymouth's away record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hull City at home: 1.44 PPG; Plymouth away: 1.52 PPG.
Have Hull City or Plymouth been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hull City have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Plymouth in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Hull City and Plymouth runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Hull City's record when hosting Plymouth specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Hull City
2
Draws
1
Plymouth
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hull City and Plymouth?
From 4 meetings on record, Hull City have won 1, Plymouth have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Hull City and Plymouth last play each other?
They last met on 4 March 2025, when Hull City 2-0 Plymouth.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hull City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Plymouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hull City 52%, Plymouth 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Hull City) and 63% (Plymouth).
On the defensive side: Hull City have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hull City home games / Plymouth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hull City play Plymouth?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Hull City's games and 63% of Plymouth's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hull City vs Plymouth usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Hull City's recent games and 63% of Plymouth's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hull City and Plymouth tend to score early?
Hull City have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Plymouth in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hull City and Plymouth share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hull City and Plymouth finished level at 1-1 at The MKM Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hull City 1.73 xG and Plymouth 0.86 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hull City attack 0.91 / defence 0.89 against Plymouth attack 0.81 / defence 1.35, drawn from 54/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hull City 57% | Draw 26% | Plymouth 17%, with Hull City to win its most likely call at 57%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hull City 43%, Plymouth 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hull City's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Plymouth's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Plymouth arrived the stronger side — 2.06 PPG against 1.35. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.