Hull City 2-2 Leicester – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Leicester at 46% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Hull City face Leicester.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Hull City and Leicester meet at The MKM Stadium in Championship (matchday 37). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 9 March 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Current Form
Hull City's record over their last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L (1.80 PPG). Last five: W W D D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Hull City at home: 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Leicester (all games): 5W 1D 4L across their last 10 — 1.60 points per game. Last five: W L L L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Leicester have posted 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 away outings — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.80 for Hull City, 1.60 for Leicester — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Hull City's last 10 home games and Leicester's last 10 away games) — Hull City have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Leicester in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, Hull City edge it 1 wins to 0, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.0 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 2 Sep 2023, ended Hull City 1–0 Leicester — a Hull City win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Hull City — key trading statistics (last 74 games, 37 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games).
Leicester — key trading statistics (last 74 games, 37 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; of the 31 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hull City 54% versus Leicester 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hull City 46% | Leicester 61%). Note also that Leicester surrender HT leads in 26% of cases while Hull City recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 33% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hull City 1.10 xG and Leicester 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hull City attack 0.883 / defence 0.906 | Leicester attack 1.324 / defence 0.911. League average goals — home 1.368 / away 1.239. Leicester have an above-average attack rating of 1.324, which lifts their away xG to 1.49. Data: built from Hull City's last 82 games and Leicester's last 36.
Result probabilities: Hull City 28% | Draw 26% | Leicester 46%. Fair-value odds: Hull City 3.56 | Draw 3.86 | Leicester 2.17. Leicester hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Leicester are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Leicester if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.59 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 52% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Hull City 60% (last 10 home games) | Leicester 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hull City vs Leicester | Competition: Championship, matchday 37 | Venue: The MKM Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 9 March 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hull City 28% | Draw 26% | Leicester 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% (Under 52%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Hull City 1.10 / Leicester 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Hull City attack 0.883 / def 0.906 | Leicester attack 1.324 / def 0.911 | league avg home 1.368 / away 1.239 • Poisson stance: Leicester (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Hull City xG
Expected Goals
1.49
Leicester xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Hull City vs Leicester FAQs
What time does Hull City vs Leicester kick off?
Hull City vs Leicester kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 9 March 2024 at The MKM Stadium.
What was the final score in Hull City vs Leicester?
Hull City 2 - 2 Leicester.
Where is Hull City vs Leicester being played?
The match is being played at The MKM Stadium.
What competition is Hull City vs Leicester part of?
Hull City vs Leicester is a Championship fixture (matchday 37) (England).
Who is favourite to win Hull City vs Leicester?
Our statistical model gives Hull City a 28% chance of winning, Leicester a 46% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Leicester the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hull City vs Leicester?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Hull City and Leicester will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Hull City vs Leicester have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (52%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Hull City's attack rating (0.88) and Leicester's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 1.10 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Leicester's attack (1.32x) against Hull City's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 1.49.
These ratings are built from Hull City's last 82 games and Leicester's last 36 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.6%), 1-2 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Leicester Win
28%
3.56
26%
3.86
46%
2.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Hull City xG
Total xG
2.59
1.49
Leicester xG
3.56
28%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
2.17
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
23%
4.41
33%
3.01
Win to Nil
6%
15.72
15%
6.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 11.2 | 8.3 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 12.3 | 9.1 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 6.8 | 5.0 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Hull City vs Leicester Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Hull City vs Leicester?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Hull City and Leicester expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Hull City and 1.49 for Leicester, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Hull City vs Leicester?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Hull City come into this having played 74 games, going 27W 23D 24L for 1.41 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-D-D.
On the other side, Leicester sit at 1.55 PPG from 74 outings (35W 10D 29L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.41 PPG for Hull City against 1.55 for Leicester. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Hull City's home form reads 13W 12D 12L across their last 37 home games, a 1.38 PPG return.
Away from home, Leicester have taken 1.51 points per game from their last 37 away games (17W 5D 15L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Hull City are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Leicester are on 1.66 scored and 1.34 conceded.
Last 74 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hull City
Current Season
Leicester
Current Season
Hull City (Home) vs Leicester (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Hull City
Current Season
Leicester
Current Season
❓ Hull City vs Leicester Form FAQs
What form are Hull City and Leicester in coming into this match?
Hull City have gone 27W 23D 24L in their last 74 games (1.41 PPG), while Leicester have gone 35W 10D 29L in their last 74 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hull City at home or Leicester away?
Leicester's away record (1.51 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hull City at home: 1.38 PPG; Leicester away: 1.51 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 4 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to September 2023 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Championship. The most recent was on 21 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hull City have gone 1W 1D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Leicester — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Hull City
2
Draws
0
Leicester
Recent Meetings
❓ Hull City vs Leicester H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Hull City and Leicester?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Hull City have won 2, Leicester have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Hull City and Leicester last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 21 April 2026: Leicester 2-2 Hull City.
Who has won more matches between Hull City and Leicester?
Hull City have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Hull City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Leicester are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 49% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 28% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hull City 51%, Leicester 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Hull City) and 62% (Leicester).
On the defensive side: Hull City keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hull City home games / Leicester away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Hull City vs Leicester Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Hull City and Leicester matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 51% of Hull City's games and 65% of Leicester's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Hull City and Leicester matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Hull City's recent games and 62% of Leicester's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hull City and Leicester matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 76% of Hull City's recent matches and 81% of Leicester's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hull City and Leicester share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at The MKM Stadium, Regular Season - 37, as Hull City and Leicester drew 2-2 in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hull City 1.10 xG and Leicester 1.49 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Hull City beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hull City attack 0.88 / defence 0.91 against Leicester attack 1.32 / defence 0.91, drawn from 82/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hull City 28% | Draw 26% | Leicester 46%, with Leicester to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hull City 46%, Leicester 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hull City's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Leicester's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hull City 1.41 PPG, Leicester 1.55 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Hull City (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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