Derby vs West Ham – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Derby at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Derby vs West Ham fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Derby host West Ham at Pride Park in Championship, Regular Season - 42. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 10 April 2027 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Championship games this season, Derby have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L L D L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Derby have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Derby have posted 6W 1D 3L at Pride Park — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Derby are significantly better at Pride Park than their overall form suggests.
West Ham — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Championship fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. West Ham have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Championship this season, West Ham have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Derby) versus 1.20 (West Ham). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Trading Patterns
Derby in-play and half-time data (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
West Ham in-play and half-time data (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Derby 62% versus West Ham 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Derby 57% | West Ham 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Derby 1.47 xG and West Ham 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Derby attack 0.903 / defence 1.185 | West Ham attack 0.924 / defence 1.139. League average goals — home 1.431 / away 1.305. Data: 50 Derby games / 4 West Ham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Derby 35% | Draw 31% | West Ham 33%. Fair-value odds: Derby 2.86 | Draw 3.23 | West Ham 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.47 / 1.43) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Derby at 35% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Derby offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.90 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Derby 50% | West Ham 50%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Derby vs West Ham | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 42 | Venue: Pride Park • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Apr 2027, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Derby 35% | Draw 31% | West Ham 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 62% | xG Derby 1.47 / West Ham 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Derby attack 0.903 / def 1.185 | West Ham attack 0.924 / def 1.139 | league avg home 1.431 / away 1.305 • Poisson stance: Derby (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Derby xG
Expected Goals
1.43
West Ham xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Derby vs West Ham kick off?
Derby vs West Ham is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 10 April 2027 at Pride Park.
Where is Derby vs West Ham being played?
The match is being played at Pride Park.
What competition is Derby vs West Ham part of?
Derby vs West Ham is a Regular Season - 42 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Derby vs West Ham?
Our statistical model gives Derby a 35% chance of winning, West Ham a 33% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Derby the favourite.
Will both teams score in Derby vs West Ham?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Derby and West Ham will score (BTTS).
Will Derby vs West Ham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and West Ham?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Derby and West Ham in?
Derby (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-L-W. West Ham (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Derby's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against West Ham's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.47. The same calculation in reverse, West Ham's attack versus Derby's defence, projects 1.43 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Derby Win
35%
2.82
31%
3.21
33%
2.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
1 – 2
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Derby xG
Total xG
2.90
1.43
West Ham xG
2.82
35%
Home win
3.21
31%
Draw
2.99
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.62
Clean Sheet
24%
4.17
23%
4.36
Win to Nil
8%
11.78
8%
13.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 7.8 | 5.6 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 11.6 | 8.3 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.5 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.2 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Derby vs West Ham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Derby and West Ham expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Derby and 1.43 for West Ham, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Derby vs West Ham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Derby come into this having played 42 games, going 20W 6D 16L for 1.57 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-L-W. It's still early in the season for Derby, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, West Ham sit at 1.05 PPG from 42 outings (11W 11D 20L), a run that reads W-D-L-D-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for West Ham, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Derby carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.52 PPG clear of West Ham — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Derby's home form reads 10W 5D 6L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.67 PPG return.
Away from home, West Ham have taken 0.90 points per game from 21 outings (4W 7D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Derby come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Derby are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; West Ham are on 1.29 scored and 1.71 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Derby have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 42 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Derby
Early Season
West Ham
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Derby and West Ham in coming into this match?
Derby have gone 20W 6D 16L in their last 42 games (1.57 PPG), while West Ham have gone 11W 11D 20L in their last 42 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Derby at home or West Ham away?
Derby's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Derby at home: 1.67 PPG; West Ham away: 0.90 PPG.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Derby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
West Ham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Derby 62%, West Ham 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Derby) and 57% (West Ham).
On the defensive side: Derby keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; West Ham in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Derby home games / West Ham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Derby play West Ham?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Derby's games and 52% of West Ham's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Derby vs West Ham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Derby's recent games and 57% of West Ham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Derby and West Ham tend to score early?
Derby have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, West Ham in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.