Derby 0-1 Sunderland – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sunderland at 38% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Derby vs Sunderland encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Derby host Sunderland at Pride Park Stadium in Championship (matchday 28). Kick-off is Tuesday 21 January 2025 at 19:45 UK time.
Form Guide
Derby — last 10 games: 2W 1D 7L, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Derby's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Sunderland have recorded 5W 3D 2L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D L W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Sunderland's form when playing away from home: 3W 5D 2L across their last 10 road games (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Sunderland are 1.10 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 0.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 0 wins for Derby, 1 for Sunderland and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 1 Oct 2024, ended Derby 0–2 Sunderland — a Sunderland win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Derby trading profile (last 73 games, 36 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Sunderland trading profile (last 73 games, 36 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 58% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Derby 49% versus Sunderland 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Derby 51% | Sunderland 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Derby 1.02 xG and Sunderland 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Derby attack 0.854 / defence 1.162 | Sunderland attack 1.034 / defence 0.867. League average goals — home 1.374 / away 0.977. Data: built from Derby's last 27 games and Sunderland's last 73.
Result probabilities: Derby 30% | Draw 32% | Sunderland 38%. Fair-value odds: Derby 3.31 | Draw 3.15 | Sunderland 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sunderland at 38% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sunderland offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.19 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 63% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Derby's last 10 home games and Sunderland's last 10 away games) averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 55%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Derby 60% (last 10 home games) | Sunderland 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Derby vs Sunderland | Competition: Championship, matchday 28 | Venue: Pride Park Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 21 January 2025 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Derby 30% | Draw 32% | Sunderland 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% (Under 63%) | BTTS Yes 45% (No 55%) | xG Derby 1.02 / Sunderland 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Derby attack 0.854 / def 1.162 | Sunderland attack 1.034 / def 0.867 | league avg home 1.374 / away 0.977 • Poisson stance: Sunderland (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Derby xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Sunderland xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Derby vs Sunderland FAQs
What time does Derby vs Sunderland kick off?
Derby vs Sunderland kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Tuesday 21 January 2025 at Pride Park Stadium.
What was the final score in Derby vs Sunderland?
Derby 0 - 1 Sunderland.
Where is Derby vs Sunderland being played?
The match is being played at Pride Park Stadium.
What competition is Derby vs Sunderland part of?
Derby vs Sunderland is a Championship fixture (matchday 28) (England).
Who is favourite to win Derby vs Sunderland?
Our statistical model gives Derby a 30% chance of winning, Sunderland a 38% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Sunderland the favourite.
Will both teams score in Derby vs Sunderland?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Derby and Sunderland will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (55%).
Will Derby vs Sunderland have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (63%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Derby's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Sunderland's defensive record (0.87x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.02. The same calculation in reverse, Sunderland's attack versus Derby's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Derby's last 27 games and Sunderland's last 73 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.9%), 0-1 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sunderland Win
30%
3.31
32%
3.15
38%
2.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.1%
Away win
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Derby xG
Total xG
2.19
1.17
Sunderland xG
3.31
30%
Home win
3.15
32%
Draw
2.63
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.20
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
31%
3.23
36%
2.76
Win to Nil
9%
10.72
14%
7.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 13.1 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 13.3 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 6.8 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Derby vs Sunderland Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Derby vs Sunderland?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Derby and Sunderland expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Derby and 1.17 for Sunderland, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Derby vs Sunderland?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Derby come into this having played 73 games, going 35W 14D 24L for 1.63 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-L-L.
On the other side, Sunderland sit at 1.47 PPG from 73 outings (30W 17D 26L), a run that reads D-L-W-W-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Derby on 1.63 PPG, Sunderland on 1.47. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Derby's home form reads 21W 6D 9L across their last 36 home games, a 1.92 PPG return.
Away from home, Sunderland have taken 1.22 points per game from their last 36 away games (11W 11D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Derby come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Derby are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 1.01 conceded per game recently; Sunderland are on 1.25 scored and 1.04 conceded.
Defensively: Derby have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 73 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Derby
Blended
Sunderland
Blended
Derby (Home) vs Sunderland (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Derby
Blended
Sunderland
Blended
❓ Derby vs Sunderland Form FAQs
What form are Derby and Sunderland in coming into this match?
Derby have gone 35W 14D 24L in their last 73 games (1.63 PPG), while Sunderland have gone 30W 17D 26L in their last 73 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Derby at home or Sunderland away?
Derby's home record (1.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Derby at home: 1.92 PPG; Sunderland away: 1.22 PPG.
Have Derby or Sunderland been keeping clean sheets recently?
Derby have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Sunderland in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 2 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2024. All of them came in Championship. The most recent in our data was on 21 January 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Derby
0
Draws
2
Sunderland
Recent Meetings
❓ Derby vs Sunderland H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and Sunderland?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Derby have won 0, Sunderland have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Derby and Sunderland last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 21 January 2025: Derby 0-1 Sunderland.
Who has won more matches between Derby and Sunderland?
Sunderland have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Derby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Sunderland see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Derby 50%, Sunderland 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Derby) and 36% (Sunderland).
On the defensive side: Derby keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Sunderland in 33%; Sunderland in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Derby home games / Sunderland away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Derby vs Sunderland Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Derby and Sunderland matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Derby's recent matches and 44% of Sunderland's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Derby and Sunderland matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Derby's recent games and 36% of Sunderland's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Derby and Sunderland matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Derby's recent matches and 58% of Sunderland's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sunderland edge out Derby 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sunderland beat Derby 0-1 at Pride Park Stadium, Regular Season - 28, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Derby 1.02 xG and Sunderland 1.17 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Derby fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Derby attack 0.85 / defence 1.16 against Sunderland attack 1.03 / defence 0.87, drawn from 27/73 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Derby 30% | Draw 32% | Sunderland 38%, with Sunderland to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Derby 51%, Sunderland 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Derby's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Sunderland's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Derby 1.63 PPG, Sunderland 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sunderland win broke the near-deadlock. Derby (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward. Sunderland (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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