Derby 1-2 QPR – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Derby at 42%, yet in-form QPR provide a compelling counter-argument — this Derby vs QPR fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Championship clash, Regular Season - 20 as Derby welcome QPR to Pride Park Stadium. Kick-off is set for Monday 29 November 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Championship games this season, Derby have gone 2W 6D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L L D W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Derby, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Derby have posted 3W 5D 1L at Pride Park Stadium — 1.56 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
QPR — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Championship fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D W D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for QPR, so this record blends games from this season and last.
QPR's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 4L across 9 road games this term (1.22 PPG). Away from home they average 1.67 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 78% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.22 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour QPR — 0.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.00 vs 1.20). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Derby register both teams scoring in 67% of relevant matches, QPR in 78% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Data
Derby trading profile (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 38% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
QPR trading profile (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Derby 53% versus QPR 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Derby 32% | QPR 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Derby 1.60 xG and QPR 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Derby attack 1.073 / defence 1.194 | QPR attack 1.055 / defence 1.462. League average goals — home 1.022 / away 1.069. QPR bring a strong defensive rating of 1.462 — this is suppressing Derby's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 19 Derby games / 19 QPR games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Derby 42% | Draw 27% | QPR 31%. Fair-value odds: Derby 2.38 | Draw 3.70 | QPR 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.60 / 1.35) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Derby are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form QPR (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Derby offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.95 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Derby 67% | QPR 78% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Derby vs QPR | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Pride Park Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 29 Nov 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Derby 42% | Draw 27% | QPR 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 61% | xG Derby 1.60 / QPR 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Derby attack 1.073 / def 1.194 | QPR attack 1.055 / def 1.462 | league avg home 1.022 / away 1.069 • Poisson stance: Derby (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Derby xG
Expected Goals
1.35
QPR xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Derby vs QPR kick off?
Derby vs QPR kicked off at 19:45 on Monday 29 November 2021 at Pride Park Stadium.
What was the final score in Derby vs QPR?
Derby 1 - 2 QPR.
Where is Derby vs QPR being played?
The match is being played at Pride Park Stadium.
What competition is Derby vs QPR part of?
Derby vs QPR is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Derby vs QPR?
Our statistical model gives Derby a 42% chance of winning, QPR a 31% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Derby the favourite.
Will both teams score in Derby vs QPR?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Derby and QPR will score (BTTS).
Will Derby vs QPR have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and QPR?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Derby and QPR in?
Derby (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-D-W-D. QPR (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Derby's attacking strength (1.07x league average) is weighed against QPR's defensive record (1.46x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.60. The same calculation in reverse, QPR's attack versus Derby's defence, projects 1.35 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 19/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Derby Win
42%
2.38
27%
3.67
31%
3.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Derby xG
Total xG
2.95
1.35
QPR xG
2.38
42%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
3.26
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.53
Clean Sheet
26%
3.84
20%
4.96
Win to Nil
11%
9.15
6%
16.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 7.1 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 11.3 | 7.6 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 9.1 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.8 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Derby vs QPR?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Derby and QPR expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Derby and 1.35 for QPR, a combined total of 2.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Derby vs QPR?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Derby's recent record stands at 4W 10D 5L from 19 games, a 1.16 PPG return, with L-L-D-W-D in the last five. The sample for Derby is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
QPR, meanwhile, have gone 9W 5D 5L across 19 games — 1.68 PPG, with D-W-D-W-W in their last five. The sample for QPR is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours QPR by 0.52 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Derby heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Derby have managed 3W 5D 1L from 9 games — 1.56 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.16 PPG overall — Derby are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
QPR's away record stands at 3W 2D 4L across 9 trips, a 1.22 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.68 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of QPR's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Derby are averaging 0.84 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; QPR are on 1.63 scored and 1.26 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: QPR in 63%.
Defensively: Derby have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games; QPR in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 19 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Derby
Blended
QPR
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Derby and QPR in coming into this match?
Derby have gone 4W 10D 5L in their last 19 games (1.16 PPG), while QPR have gone 9W 5D 5L in their last 19 (1.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Derby at home or QPR away?
Derby's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Derby at home: 1.56 PPG; QPR away: 1.22 PPG.
Have Derby or QPR been keeping clean sheets recently?
Derby have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, QPR in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Derby have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Feb 2025, when QPR won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Derby's record when hosting QPR specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Derby
0
Draws
3
QPR
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and QPR?
From 6 meetings on record, Derby have won 3, QPR have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Derby and QPR last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when QPR 2-3 Derby.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Derby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
QPR are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Derby at 67%, QPR at 78%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 44% for Derby and 78% for QPR. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 22% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Derby keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Derby home games / QPR away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Derby play QPR?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Derby's games and 78% of QPR's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Derby vs QPR usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 44% of Derby's matches and 78% of QPR's.
Do Derby and QPR tend to score early?
Derby have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, QPR in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as QPR defy the odds to beat Derby 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
QPR beat Derby 1-2 at Pride Park Stadium, Regular Season - 20, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Derby 1.60 xG and QPR 1.35 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Derby attack 1.07 / defence 1.19 against QPR attack 1.05 / defence 1.46, drawn from 19/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Derby 42% | Draw 27% | QPR 31%, with Derby to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual QPR win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Derby 32%, QPR 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Derby's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
QPR's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, QPR arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 1.16. Form held, and they took the win. Derby (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.