Derby 4-0 Portsmouth – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Derby at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Derby vs Portsmouth fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Derby and Portsmouth meet at Pride Park Stadium in Championship, Regular Season - 21. This fixture gets under way on Friday 13 December 2024 at 20:00 UTC.
Current Form
Derby's overall Championship record this term: 1W 5D 4L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: D L L L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Derby, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Derby's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Pride Park Stadium this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Pride Park Stadium. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Derby are significantly better at Pride Park Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Portsmouth have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Championship outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: L W D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Portsmouth, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Portsmouth have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Portsmouth are 0.50 PPG clear of Derby in recent Championship fixtures (1.30 vs 0.80). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Derby lead 0W to 0W over the last 4 encounters, with 4 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Apr 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Derby half-time and goal-timing data (64 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
Portsmouth half-time and goal-timing data (64 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Derby 50% versus Portsmouth 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Derby 48% | Portsmouth 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Derby 1.67 xG and Portsmouth 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Derby attack 0.894 / defence 1.207 | Portsmouth attack 0.970 / defence 1.408. League average goals — home 1.330 / away 1.025. Portsmouth bring a strong defensive rating of 1.408 — this is suppressing Derby's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 20 Derby games / 18 Portsmouth games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Derby 47% | Draw 27% | Portsmouth 26%. Fair-value odds: Derby 2.13 | Draw 3.70 | Portsmouth 3.85. Derby hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Derby at 47% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Portsmouth (1.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Derby if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.87 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Derby 50% | Portsmouth 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Derby vs Portsmouth | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Pride Park Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 13 Dec 2024, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Derby 47% | Draw 27% | Portsmouth 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG Derby 1.67 / Portsmouth 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Derby attack 0.894 / def 1.207 | Portsmouth attack 0.970 / def 1.408 | league avg home 1.330 / away 1.025 • Poisson stance: Derby (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
Derby xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Portsmouth xG
58%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Derby vs Portsmouth kick off?
Derby vs Portsmouth kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 13 December 2024 at Pride Park Stadium.
What was the final score in Derby vs Portsmouth?
Derby 4 - 0 Portsmouth.
Where is Derby vs Portsmouth being played?
The match is being played at Pride Park Stadium.
What competition is Derby vs Portsmouth part of?
Derby vs Portsmouth is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Derby vs Portsmouth?
Our statistical model gives Derby a 47% chance of winning, Portsmouth a 26% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Derby the favourite.
Will both teams score in Derby vs Portsmouth?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Derby and Portsmouth will score (BTTS).
Will Derby vs Portsmouth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and Portsmouth?
Record (4 meetings): Derby 0W | Draws 4 | Portsmouth 0W.
What form are Derby and Portsmouth in?
Derby (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-L-L-D. Portsmouth (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Derby's attack at 0.89x the league average against Portsmouth's defence at 1.41x — combine the two and it projects 1.67 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Portsmouth's attack (0.97x) against Derby's defence (1.21x) — and the away total comes out at 1.20.
These ratings are built from 20/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Derby Win
47%
2.13
27%
3.69
26%
3.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
Derby xG
Total xG
2.87
1.20
Portsmouth xG
2.13
47%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
3.86
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
30%
3.32
19%
5.33
Win to Nil
14%
7.06
5%
20.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 6.8 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 11.4 | 6.8 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.5 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.3 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Derby vs Portsmouth?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Derby and Portsmouth expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Derby and 1.20 for Portsmouth, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Derby vs Portsmouth?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Derby come into this having played 64 games, going 32W 14D 18L for 1.72 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-L-D. The sample for Derby is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Portsmouth sit at 1.78 PPG from 64 outings (31W 21D 12L), a run that reads L-W-D-W-D across their last five. The sample for Portsmouth is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.72 PPG for Derby against 1.78 for Portsmouth. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Derby's home form reads 19W 6D 6L across 31 games on their own ground, a 2.03 PPG return.
Away from home, Portsmouth have taken 1.65 points per game from 31 outings (13W 12D 6L).
Attack vs Defence
Derby are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; Portsmouth are on 1.55 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Defensively: Derby have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games; Portsmouth in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 64 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Derby
Blended
Portsmouth
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Derby and Portsmouth in coming into this match?
Derby have gone 32W 14D 18L in their last 64 games (1.72 PPG), while Portsmouth have gone 31W 21D 12L in their last 64 (1.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Derby at home or Portsmouth away?
Derby's home record (2.03 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Derby at home: 2.03 PPG; Portsmouth away: 1.65 PPG.
Have Derby or Portsmouth been keeping clean sheets recently?
Derby have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Portsmouth in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League One, Championship all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 1 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Derby have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Derby won 4-0 on 13 Dec 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Derby have gone 1W 3D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Portsmouth — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Derby
6
Draws
0
Portsmouth
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and Portsmouth?
From 9 meetings on record, Derby have won 3, Portsmouth have won 0, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Derby and Portsmouth last play each other?
They last met on 1 September 2026, when Portsmouth 0-2 Derby.
Who has won more matches between Derby and Portsmouth?
Derby have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Derby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
Portsmouth see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Derby 52%, Portsmouth 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Derby) and 48% (Portsmouth).
On the defensive side: Derby keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Portsmouth in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Derby home games / Portsmouth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Derby play Portsmouth?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Derby's recent matches and 52% of Portsmouth's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Derby vs Portsmouth usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Derby's recent games and 48% of Portsmouth's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Derby and Portsmouth tend to score early?
Derby have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Portsmouth in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Derby run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Portsmouth.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Derby beat Portsmouth 4-0 at Pride Park Stadium, Regular Season - 21, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Derby 1.67 xG and Portsmouth 1.20 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Derby beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Portsmouth landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Derby attack 0.89 / defence 1.21 against Portsmouth attack 0.97 / defence 1.41, drawn from 20/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Derby 47% | Draw 27% | Portsmouth 26%, with Derby to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Derby 48%, Portsmouth 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Derby's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.
Portsmouth's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Derby 1.72 PPG, Portsmouth 1.78 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Derby win broke the near-deadlock. Derby (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.71 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.81 average — tighter than their form line. Portsmouth (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.39 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.