Derby 0-0 Oxford United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Derby at 45% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Derby vs Oxford United encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Championship encounter, Regular Season - 32 sees Oxford United travel to Pride Park Stadium to take on Derby. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 11 February 2025, 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Derby — All Games: 1W 1D 8L from 10 Championship outings this season, averaging 0.40 points per game. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market.
Derby's home record at Pride Park Stadium: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Championship appearances (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Across all Championship games this season, Oxford United have recorded 5W 4D 1L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Oxford United's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Oxford United are 1.50 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 0.40), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Derby, 1 for Oxford United and 1 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 22 Oct 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Derby in-play tendencies (77 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Oxford United in-play tendencies (77 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Derby 49% versus Oxford United 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Derby 49% | Oxford United 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Derby 1.13 xG and Oxford United 0.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Derby attack 0.741 / defence 1.083 | Oxford United attack 0.641 / defence 1.121. League average goals — home 1.362 / away 1.049. Derby's attack strength of 0.741 is below the league average — the 1.13 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 31 Derby games / 31 Oxford United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Derby 45% | Draw 32% | Oxford United 23%. Fair-value odds: Derby 2.22 | Draw 3.12 | Oxford United 4.35. Derby hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.86. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.86 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Derby dominate the H2H record, yet Oxford United are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
Poisson rates Derby as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Oxford United (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Derby offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.86 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 29% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 36% on No. Form rates corroborate: Derby 50% | Oxford United 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Derby vs Oxford United | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Pride Park Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 11 Feb 2025, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Derby 45% | Draw 32% | Oxford United 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 36% | xG Derby 1.13 / Oxford United 0.73 • Poisson strength factors: Derby attack 0.741 / def 1.083 | Oxford United attack 0.641 / def 1.121 | league avg home 1.362 / away 1.049 • Poisson stance: Derby (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Derby xG
Expected Goals
0.73
Oxford United xG
36%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Derby vs Oxford United kick off?
Derby vs Oxford United kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 11 February 2025 at Pride Park Stadium.
What was the final score in Derby vs Oxford United?
Derby 0 - 0 Oxford United.
Where is Derby vs Oxford United being played?
The match is being played at Pride Park Stadium.
What competition is Derby vs Oxford United part of?
Derby vs Oxford United is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Derby vs Oxford United?
Our statistical model gives Derby a 45% chance of winning, Oxford United a 23% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Derby the favourite.
Will both teams score in Derby vs Oxford United?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Derby and Oxford United will score (BTTS).
Will Derby vs Oxford United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and Oxford United?
Record (5 meetings): Derby 3W | Draws 1 | Oxford United 1W.
What form are Derby and Oxford United in?
Derby (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-L-D. Oxford United (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Derby's attack at 0.74x the league average against Oxford United's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 1.13 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Oxford United's attack versus Derby's defence, projects 0.73 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 31/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 17.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (16.0%), 1-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Derby Win
45%
2.24
32%
3.08
23%
4.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.6%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.6%
Draw
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Derby xG
Total xG
1.86
0.73
Oxford United xG
2.24
45%
Home win
3.08
32%
Draw
4.35
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.81
64%
BTTS No
1.55
Clean Sheet
48%
2.07
32%
3.10
Win to Nil
22%
4.65
7%
13.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.6 | 11.3 | 4.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.6 | 12.8 | 4.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.0 | 7.3 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.8 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Derby vs Oxford United?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.3%.
How many goals are Derby and Oxford United expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Derby and 0.73 for Oxford United, a combined total of 1.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Derby vs Oxford United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 77 outings, Derby have picked up 1.56 PPG on a 35W 15D 27L record — L-L-L-L-D across the most recent five.
Oxford United's form line: 31W 22D 24L from 77 games, 1.49 PPG, last five W-W-D-D-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Derby on 1.56 PPG, Oxford United on 1.49. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Derby have posted 1.82 PPG from 38 outings (21W 6D 11L).
On the road, Oxford United have gone 12W 10D 16L from 38 away games — 1.21 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Derby come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Derby are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; Oxford United are on 1.48 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Defensively: Derby have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 77 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Derby
Current Season
Oxford United
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Derby and Oxford United in coming into this match?
Derby have gone 35W 15D 27L in their last 77 games (1.56 PPG), while Oxford United have gone 31W 22D 24L in their last 77 (1.49 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Derby at home or Oxford United away?
Derby's home record (1.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Derby at home: 1.82 PPG; Oxford United away: 1.21 PPG.
Have Derby or Oxford United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Derby have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Oxford United in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Derby and Oxford United runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2022. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League One, Championship all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Derby's record when hosting Oxford United specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Derby
2
Draws
2
Oxford United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and Oxford United?
From 8 meetings on record, Derby have won 4, Oxford United have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Derby and Oxford United last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Derby 1-0 Oxford United.
Who has won more matches between Derby and Oxford United?
Derby have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Derby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Oxford United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Derby 47%, Oxford United 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Derby) and 50% (Oxford United).
On the defensive side: Derby keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Oxford United in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Derby home games / Oxford United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Derby play Oxford United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Derby's recent matches and 53% of Oxford United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Derby vs Oxford United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Derby's recent games and 50% of Oxford United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Derby and Oxford United tend to score early?
Derby have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Oxford United in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Derby's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Pride Park Stadium, Regular Season - 32, as Derby and Oxford United drew 0-0 in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Derby 1.13 xG and Oxford United 0.73 xG, a combined 1.86. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Derby fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Derby attack 0.74 / defence 1.08 against Oxford United attack 0.64 / defence 1.12, drawn from 31/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Derby 45% | Draw 32% | Oxford United 23%, with Derby to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 56% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Derby 49%, Oxford United 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Derby's trading profile (77 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Oxford United's trading profile (77 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Derby 1.56 PPG, Oxford United 1.49 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Derby (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.58 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.87 average — tighter than their form line. Oxford United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.45 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.