Derby 1-2 Millwall – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Derby at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Derby vs Millwall fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Championship clash, Regular Season - 34 as Derby welcome Millwall to Pride Park Stadium. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 23 February 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Derby stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Championship matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D L W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Derby's home record at Pride Park Stadium: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Championship appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Millwall — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Championship fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Millwall's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.70 PPG (Derby) versus 1.30 (Millwall). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Derby have won 0, Millwall 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Nov 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Derby trading profile (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Millwall trading profile (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Derby 52% versus Millwall 58%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Derby 42% | Millwall 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Derby 1.49 xG and Millwall 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Derby attack 1.062 / defence 1.078 | Millwall attack 0.735 / defence 1.301. League average goals — home 1.076 / away 1.066. Millwall bring a strong defensive rating of 1.301 — this is suppressing Derby's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 32 Derby games / 31 Millwall games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Derby 52% | Draw 27% | Millwall 21%. Fair-value odds: Derby 1.92 | Draw 3.70 | Millwall 4.76. Derby hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Derby at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Derby offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.33 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates are neutral: Derby 60% | Millwall 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Derby vs Millwall | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Pride Park Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 23 Feb 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Derby 52% | Draw 27% | Millwall 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 44% | xG Derby 1.49 / Millwall 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Derby attack 1.062 / def 1.078 | Millwall attack 0.735 / def 1.301 | league avg home 1.076 / away 1.066 • Poisson stance: Derby (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Derby xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Millwall xG
44%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Derby vs Millwall kick off?
Derby vs Millwall kicked off at 19:45 on Wednesday 23 February 2022 at Pride Park Stadium.
What was the final score in Derby vs Millwall?
Derby 1 - 2 Millwall.
Where is Derby vs Millwall being played?
The match is being played at Pride Park Stadium.
What competition is Derby vs Millwall part of?
Derby vs Millwall is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Derby vs Millwall?
Our statistical model gives Derby a 52% chance of winning, Millwall a 21% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Derby the favourite.
Will both teams score in Derby vs Millwall?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Derby and Millwall will score (BTTS).
Will Derby vs Millwall have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and Millwall?
Record (1 meetings): Derby 0W | Draws 1 | Millwall 0W.
What form are Derby and Millwall in?
Derby (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-W-L-W. Millwall (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Derby's attack at 1.06x the league average against Millwall's defence at 1.30x — combine the two and it projects 1.49 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Millwall's attack versus Derby's defence, projects 0.84 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 32/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.9%), 0-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Derby Win
52%
1.92
27%
3.74
21%
4.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
2 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Derby xG
Total xG
2.33
0.84
Millwall xG
1.92
52%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
4.72
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.26
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
43%
2.33
23%
4.42
Win to Nil
22%
4.46
5%
20.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 8.2 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.5 | 12.2 | 5.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.7 | 9.1 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.3 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Derby vs Millwall?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Derby and Millwall expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Derby and 0.84 for Millwall, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Derby vs Millwall?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 31 outings, Derby have picked up 1.32 PPG on a 10W 11D 10L record — D-L-W-L-W across the most recent five.
Millwall's form line: 11W 10D 10L from 31 games, 1.39 PPG, last five W-D-L-W-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Derby on 1.32 PPG, Millwall on 1.39. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Derby have posted 1.93 PPG from 15 outings (8W 5D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.32 PPG overall — Derby are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Millwall have gone 3W 5D 7L from 15 away games — 0.93 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.39 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Millwall's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Derby come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Derby are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Millwall are on 1.06 scored and 1.06 conceded.
Defensively: Derby have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 31 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Derby
Current Season
Millwall
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Derby and Millwall in coming into this match?
Derby have gone 10W 11D 10L in their last 31 games (1.32 PPG), while Millwall have gone 11W 10D 10L in their last 31 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Derby at home or Millwall away?
Derby's home record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Derby at home: 1.93 PPG; Millwall away: 0.93 PPG.
Have Derby or Millwall been keeping clean sheets recently?
Derby have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Millwall in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Derby and Millwall runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 10 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Derby's record when hosting Millwall specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Derby
3
Draws
3
Millwall
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and Millwall?
From 6 meetings on record, Derby have won 0, Millwall have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Derby and Millwall last play each other?
They last met on 10 March 2026, when Millwall 1-0 Derby.
Who has won more matches between Derby and Millwall?
Millwall have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Derby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Millwall see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Derby 53%, Millwall 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Derby) and 40% (Millwall).
On the defensive side: Derby keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Millwall in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Derby home games / Millwall away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Derby play Millwall?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Derby's games and 60% of Millwall's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Derby vs Millwall usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Derby's recent games and 40% of Millwall's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Derby and Millwall tend to score early?
Derby have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Millwall in 53% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Millwall defy the odds to beat Derby 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Millwall beat Derby 1-2 at Pride Park Stadium, Regular Season - 34, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Derby 1.49 xG and Millwall 0.84 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Millwall outscored their 0.84 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Derby attack 1.06 / defence 1.08 against Millwall attack 0.73 / defence 1.30, drawn from 32/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Derby 52% | Draw 27% | Millwall 21%, with Derby to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Millwall win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Derby 42%, Millwall 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Derby's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Millwall's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Derby 1.32 PPG, Millwall 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Millwall win broke the near-deadlock. Derby (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.87 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Millwall (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.87 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.