Derby 1-3 Leicester – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Derby at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Derby vs Leicester encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Championship encounter, Regular Season - 19 sees Leicester travel to Pride Park to take on Derby. The game is scheduled for Saturday 6 December 2025, 12:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Championship games this season, Derby have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: W W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Derby, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Derby's home record at Pride Park: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Championship appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.30 lags behind their overall 1.90 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Pride Park this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Leicester stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Championship matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Leicester, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Leicester's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Championship this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Derby carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.90 vs 1.10. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Derby register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Leicester in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Data
Derby trading profile (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Leicester trading profile (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Derby 55% versus Leicester 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Derby 41% | Leicester 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Derby 1.50 xG and Leicester 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Derby attack 0.936 / defence 1.008 | Leicester attack 0.850 / defence 1.198. League average goals — home 1.336 / away 1.230. Data: 64 Derby games / 18 Leicester games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Derby 47% | Draw 26% | Leicester 26%. Fair-value odds: Derby 2.13 | Draw 3.85 | Leicester 3.85. Derby hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Derby at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Derby offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.55 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Derby 60% | Leicester 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Derby vs Leicester | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Pride Park • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Dec 2025, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Derby 47% | Draw 26% | Leicester 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 51% | xG Derby 1.50 / Leicester 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Derby attack 0.936 / def 1.008 | Leicester attack 0.850 / def 1.198 | league avg home 1.336 / away 1.230 • Poisson stance: Derby (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Derby xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Leicester xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Derby vs Leicester kick off?
Derby vs Leicester kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 6 December 2025 at Pride Park.
What was the final score in Derby vs Leicester?
Derby 1 - 3 Leicester.
Where is Derby vs Leicester being played?
The match is being played at Pride Park.
What competition is Derby vs Leicester part of?
Derby vs Leicester is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Derby vs Leicester?
Our statistical model gives Derby a 47% chance of winning, Leicester a 26% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Derby the favourite.
Will both teams score in Derby vs Leicester?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Derby and Leicester will score (BTTS).
Will Derby vs Leicester have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and Leicester?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Derby and Leicester in?
Derby (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-W-L. Leicester (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Derby's attack at 0.94x the league average against Leicester's defence at 1.20x — combine the two and it projects 1.50 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Leicester's attack versus Derby's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 64/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.1%), 0-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Derby Win
47%
2.12
26%
3.79
26%
3.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Derby xG
Total xG
2.55
1.05
Leicester xG
2.12
47%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
3.79
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
35%
2.87
22%
4.48
Win to Nil
16%
6.08
6%
16.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 8.2 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 12.3 | 6.5 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.2 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.6 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Derby vs Leicester?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Derby and Leicester expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Derby and 1.05 for Leicester, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Derby vs Leicester?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 56 outings, Derby have picked up 1.20 PPG on a 17W 16D 23L record — W-W-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Derby is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Leicester's form line: 12W 13D 31L from 56 games, 0.88 PPG, last five D-W-W-L-L. The sample for Leicester is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Derby on 1.20 PPG, Leicester on 0.88. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Derby have posted 1.25 PPG from 28 outings (9W 8D 11L).
On the road, Leicester have gone 5W 6D 17L from 28 away games — 0.75 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Derby come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Derby are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Leicester are on 0.98 scored and 1.84 conceded.
Last 56 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Derby
Blended
Leicester
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Derby and Leicester in coming into this match?
Derby have gone 17W 16D 23L in their last 56 games (1.20 PPG), while Leicester have gone 12W 13D 31L in their last 56 (0.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Derby at home or Leicester away?
Derby's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Derby at home: 1.25 PPG; Leicester away: 0.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Derby and Leicester runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 29 December 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Derby
0
Draws
2
Leicester
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and Leicester?
From 2 meetings on record, Derby have won 0, Leicester have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Derby and Leicester last play each other?
They last met on 29 December 2025, when Leicester 2-1 Derby.
Who has won more matches between Derby and Leicester?
Leicester have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Derby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Leicester are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Derby 43%, Leicester 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Derby) and 71% (Leicester).
On the defensive side: Derby keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Derby have failed to score in 36% of games; Leicester in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Derby home games / Leicester away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Derby play Leicester?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Derby's recent matches and 61% of Leicester's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Derby vs Leicester usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Derby's recent games and 71% of Leicester's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Derby and Leicester tend to score early?
Derby have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Leicester in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Leicester cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Derby.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Leicester beat Derby 1-3 at Pride Park, Regular Season - 19, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Derby 1.50 xG and Leicester 1.05 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Leicester outscored their 1.05 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Derby attack 0.94 / defence 1.01 against Leicester attack 0.85 / defence 1.20, drawn from 64/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Derby 47% | Draw 26% | Leicester 26%, with Derby to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Leicester win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Derby 41%, Leicester 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Derby's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Leicester's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Derby 1.20 PPG, Leicester 0.88 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Leicester win broke the near-deadlock. Derby (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Leicester (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.11 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.