Derby vs Burnley – Pre-Match Analysis

Poisson rates Derby at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Derby vs Burnley encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Match Analysis

Derby host Burnley at Pride Park in Championship, Regular Season - 33. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 20 February 2027 at 15:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Derby stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Championship matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Derby have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

Derby at Pride Park this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Derby are significantly better at Pride Park than their overall form suggests.

Across all Championship games this season, Burnley have recorded 0W 4D 6L from 10 outings — 0.40 PPG. Last five: D D L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Burnley have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

Burnley's form when playing away from home: 1W 1D 8L across 10 road games this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Derby are in the better shape of the two on current Championship data — 0.90 PPG ahead (1.30 vs 0.40). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Derby have won 0, Burnley 0, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.0 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 8 Apr 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

In-Play Profile

Derby in-play tendencies (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).

Burnley in-play tendencies (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%; they fail to score in 33% of games.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Derby 62% and Burnley 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Derby 57% | Burnley 52%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Derby 2.02 xG and Burnley 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Derby attack 0.903 / defence 1.185 | Burnley attack 0.832 / defence 1.566. League average goals — home 1.431 / away 1.305. Burnley bring a strong defensive rating of 1.566 — this is suppressing Derby's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 50 Derby games / 4 Burnley games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Derby 52% | Draw 27% | Burnley 21%. Fair-value odds: Derby 1.92 | Draw 3.70 | Burnley 4.76. Derby hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.31. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.31 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (2.02 / 1.29) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Derby are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Derby offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 3.31 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 65%. Form rates corroborate: Derby 50% | Burnley 70% BTTS from recent games.

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