Coventry 0-0 Sunderland – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Coventry at 46% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Coventry face Sunderland.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Sunderland make the trip to The Coventry Building Society Arena to face Coventry in Championship (matchday 4). The match kicks off on Saturday 26 August 2023 at 16:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Coventry have collected 1.70 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 5D 1L. Last five: W D L W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Coventry's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 4D 1L (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Sunderland (all games): 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 — 1.70 points per game. Last five: W L L L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Sunderland's away record over their last 10 away games: 5W 1D 4L (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.70 for Coventry, 1.70 for Sunderland — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 2 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Coventry, 0 for Sunderland and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 25 Feb 2023, ended Coventry 2–1 Sunderland — a Coventry win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Data
Coventry goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 51 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 42%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
Sunderland goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 51 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Coventry 41% versus Sunderland 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Coventry 35% | Sunderland 57%). Note also that Sunderland surrender HT leads in 50% of cases while Coventry recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 42% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Coventry 1.48 xG and Sunderland 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Coventry attack 1.160 / defence 0.891 | Sunderland attack 1.061 / defence 0.944. League average goals — home 1.354 / away 1.145. Data: built from Coventry's last 49 games and Sunderland's last 49.
Result probabilities: Coventry 46% | Draw 27% | Sunderland 27%. Fair-value odds: Coventry 2.17 | Draw 3.73 | Sunderland 3.68. Coventry hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Coventry as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Coventry if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.56 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 53% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Coventry 50% (last 10 home games) | Sunderland 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Coventry vs Sunderland | Competition: Championship, matchday 4 | Venue: The Coventry Building Society Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 26 August 2023 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Coventry 46% | Draw 27% | Sunderland 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% (Under 53%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Coventry 1.48 / Sunderland 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Coventry attack 1.160 / def 0.891 | Sunderland attack 1.061 / def 0.944 | league avg home 1.354 / away 1.145 • Poisson stance: Coventry (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Coventry xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Sunderland xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Coventry vs Sunderland FAQs
What time does Coventry vs Sunderland kick off?
Coventry vs Sunderland kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 26 August 2023 at The Coventry Building Society Arena.
What was the final score in Coventry vs Sunderland?
Coventry 0 - 0 Sunderland.
Where is Coventry vs Sunderland being played?
The match is being played at The Coventry Building Society Arena.
What competition is Coventry vs Sunderland part of?
Coventry vs Sunderland is a Championship fixture (matchday 4) (England).
Who is favourite to win Coventry vs Sunderland?
Our statistical model gives Coventry a 46% chance of winning, Sunderland a 27% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Coventry the favourite.
Will both teams score in Coventry vs Sunderland?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Coventry and Sunderland will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Coventry vs Sunderland have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (53%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Coventry's attack at 1.16x the league average against Sunderland's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.48 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sunderland's attack (1.06x) against Coventry's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 1.08.
These ratings are built from Coventry's last 49 games and Sunderland's last 49 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.8%), 0-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Coventry Win
46%
2.17
27%
3.73
27%
3.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Coventry xG
Total xG
2.56
1.08
Sunderland xG
2.17
46%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
3.68
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
34%
2.95
23%
4.41
Win to Nil
16%
6.41
6%
16.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 8.3 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 12.3 | 6.7 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.2 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.5 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Coventry vs Sunderland Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Coventry vs Sunderland?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Coventry and Sunderland expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Coventry and 1.08 for Sunderland, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Coventry vs Sunderland?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Coventry come into this having played 51 games, going 20W 18D 13L for 1.53 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-W-D.
On the other side, Sunderland sit at 1.47 PPG from 51 outings (20W 15D 16L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.53 PPG for Coventry against 1.47 for Sunderland. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Coventry's home form reads 12W 9D 4L across their last 25 home games, a 1.80 PPG return.
Away from home, Sunderland have taken 1.56 points per game from their last 25 away games (11W 6D 8L).
Attack vs Defence
Coventry are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 0.96 conceded per game recently; Sunderland are on 1.45 scored and 1.24 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sunderland in 63%.
Defensively: Coventry have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Coventry
Early Season
Sunderland
Early Season
Coventry (Home) vs Sunderland (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Coventry
Early Season
Sunderland
Early Season
❓ Coventry vs Sunderland Form FAQs
What form are Coventry and Sunderland in coming into this match?
Coventry have gone 20W 18D 13L in their last 51 games (1.53 PPG), while Sunderland have gone 20W 15D 16L in their last 51 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Coventry at home or Sunderland away?
Coventry's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Coventry at home: 1.80 PPG; Sunderland away: 1.56 PPG.
Have Coventry or Sunderland been keeping clean sheets recently?
Coventry have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Sunderland in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 9 H2H matches between Coventry and Sunderland, the earliest from July 2022. They cover more than one competition — Championship, Premier League. The most recent was as recently as 31 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Coventry won Sunderland 0-3 Coventry on 23 Dec 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Coventry have gone 3W 1D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Sunderland — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Coventry
4
Draws
1
Sunderland
Recent Meetings
❓ Coventry vs Sunderland H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Coventry and Sunderland?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Coventry have won 4, Sunderland have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Coventry and Sunderland last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 31 October 2026: Coventry 3-1 Sunderland.
Who has won more matches between Coventry and Sunderland?
Coventry have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Coventry are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Sunderland are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Coventry 44%, Sunderland 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Coventry) and 52% (Sunderland).
On the defensive side: Coventry keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Sunderland in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Coventry home games / Sunderland away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Coventry vs Sunderland Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Coventry and Sunderland matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Coventry's recent matches and 56% of Sunderland's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Coventry and Sunderland matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Coventry's recent games and 52% of Sunderland's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Coventry and Sunderland matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 68% of Coventry's recent matches and 76% of Sunderland's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Coventry's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Coventry and Sunderland finished level at 0-0 at The Coventry Building Society Arena, Regular Season - 4, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Coventry 1.48 xG and Sunderland 1.08 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Coventry fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Sunderland landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Coventry attack 1.16 / defence 0.89 against Sunderland attack 1.06 / defence 0.94, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Coventry 46% | Draw 27% | Sunderland 27%, with Coventry to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Coventry 35%, Sunderland 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Coventry's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sunderland's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Coventry 1.53 PPG, Sunderland 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Coventry (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.36 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.96 average — tighter than their form line. Sunderland (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.44 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.04 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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