Charlton 1-1 Swansea – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Charlton at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Charlton vs Swansea fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Championship clash, Regular Season - 13 as Charlton welcome Swansea to The Valley. Kick-off is set for Saturday 1 November 2025 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Championship games this season, Charlton have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: D L W W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Charlton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Charlton's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 games at The Valley this term (2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Charlton are significantly better at The Valley than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Swansea stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Championship matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Swansea, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Swansea's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Charlton) versus 1.30 (Swansea). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Trading Patterns
Charlton in-play and half-time data (58 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Swansea in-play and half-time data (58 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charlton 43% versus Swansea 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charlton 48% | Swansea 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charlton 1.06 xG and Swansea 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charlton attack 1.053 / defence 0.913 | Swansea attack 0.809 / defence 0.853. League average goals — home 1.178 / away 1.123. Data: 12 Charlton games / 58 Swansea games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Charlton 40% | Draw 32% | Swansea 28%. Fair-value odds: Charlton 2.50 | Draw 3.12 | Swansea 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.89. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.89 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Charlton are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Charlton offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.89 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 29% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 37%. Form rates corroborate: Charlton 50% | Swansea 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charlton vs Swansea | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: The Valley • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Nov 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charlton 40% | Draw 32% | Swansea 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 37% | xG Charlton 1.06 / Swansea 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Charlton attack 1.053 / def 0.913 | Swansea attack 0.809 / def 0.853 | league avg home 1.178 / away 1.123 • Poisson stance: Charlton (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Charlton xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Swansea xG
37%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Charlton vs Swansea kick off?
Charlton vs Swansea kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 1 November 2025 at The Valley.
What was the final score in Charlton vs Swansea?
Charlton 1 - 1 Swansea.
Where is Charlton vs Swansea being played?
The match is being played at The Valley.
What competition is Charlton vs Swansea part of?
Charlton vs Swansea is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Charlton vs Swansea?
Our statistical model gives Charlton a 40% chance of winning, Swansea a 28% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Charlton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charlton vs Swansea?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Charlton and Swansea will score (BTTS).
Will Charlton vs Swansea have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Charlton and Swansea?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Charlton and Swansea in?
Charlton (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-W-W-D. Swansea (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Charlton's attack at 1.05x the league average against Swansea's defence at 0.85x — combine the two and it projects 1.06 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Swansea's attack versus Charlton's defence, projects 0.83 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 12/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 1-0 (14.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Charlton Win
40%
2.48
32%
3.16
28%
3.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.0%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.1%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Charlton xG
Total xG
1.89
0.83
Swansea xG
2.48
40%
Home win
3.16
32%
Draw
3.57
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.72
63%
BTTS No
1.58
Clean Sheet
44%
2.29
35%
2.88
Win to Nil
18%
5.69
10%
10.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.1 | 12.6 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.0 | 13.3 | 5.5 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 7.0 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Charlton vs Swansea?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.9%.
How many goals are Charlton and Swansea expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Charlton and 0.83 for Swansea, a combined total of 1.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Charlton vs Swansea?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 58 outings, Charlton have picked up 1.76 PPG on a 29W 15D 14L record — D-L-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Charlton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Swansea's form line: 21W 14D 23L from 58 games, 1.33 PPG, last five W-L-D-L-W. The sample for Swansea is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Charlton are the form team by 0.43 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Swansea.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Charlton have posted 2.18 PPG from 28 outings (18W 7D 3L). That's noticeably better than their 1.76 PPG overall — Charlton are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Swansea have gone 9W 5D 14L from 28 away games — 1.14 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Charlton come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Charlton are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 0.91 conceded per game recently; Swansea are on 1.09 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Defensively: Charlton have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 58 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charlton
Blended
Swansea
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Charlton and Swansea in coming into this match?
Charlton have gone 29W 15D 14L in their last 58 games (1.76 PPG), while Swansea have gone 21W 14D 23L in their last 58 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charlton at home or Swansea away?
Charlton's home record (2.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charlton at home: 2.18 PPG; Swansea away: 1.14 PPG.
Have Charlton or Swansea been keeping clean sheets recently?
Charlton have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Swansea in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Charlton and Swansea runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Charlton
1
Draws
1
Swansea
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Charlton and Swansea?
From 2 meetings on record, Charlton have won 0, Swansea have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Charlton and Swansea last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Swansea 3-1 Charlton.
Who has won more matches between Charlton and Swansea?
Swansea have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Charlton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Swansea are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Charlton 50%, Swansea 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Charlton) and 43% (Swansea).
On the defensive side: Charlton keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Swansea in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charlton home games / Swansea away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Charlton play Swansea?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Charlton's recent matches and 39% of Swansea's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Charlton vs Swansea usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Charlton's recent games and 43% of Swansea's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Charlton and Swansea tend to score early?
Charlton have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Swansea in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Charlton and Swansea share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at The Valley, Regular Season - 13, as Charlton and Swansea drew 1-1 in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Charlton 1.06 xG and Swansea 0.83 xG, a combined 1.89. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charlton attack 1.05 / defence 0.91 against Swansea attack 0.81 / defence 0.85, drawn from 12/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Charlton 40% | Draw 32% | Swansea 28%, with Charlton to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charlton 48%, Swansea 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Charlton's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Swansea's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Charlton arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 1.33. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.