Charlton 1-0 Sheffield Utd – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sheffield Utd at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Charlton vs Sheffield Utd encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Championship clash, Regular Season - 27 as Charlton welcome Sheffield Utd to The Valley. Kick-off is set for Saturday 17 January 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Charlton — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Championship outings this season, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: W L L D D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Charlton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Charlton at The Valley this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Charlton are significantly better at The Valley than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sheffield Utd stand at 7W 1D 2L from 10 Championship matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: L W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Sheffield Utd, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sheffield Utd's form when playing away from home: 5W 0D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Sheffield Utd — 1.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.20 vs 0.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Charlton register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Sheffield Utd in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Charlton, 0 for Sheffield Utd and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 20 Sep 2025, ended 1–0 with Charlton winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Charlton in-play and half-time data (74 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Sheffield Utd in-play and half-time data (74 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charlton 45% versus Sheffield Utd 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charlton 46% | Sheffield Utd 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charlton 1.42 xG and Sheffield Utd 1.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charlton attack 0.799 / defence 1.121 | Sheffield Utd attack 1.219 / defence 1.273. League average goals — home 1.396 / away 1.140. Charlton's attack strength of 0.799 is below the league average — the 1.42 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Sheffield Utd bring a strong defensive rating of 1.273 — this is suppressing Charlton's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Sheffield Utd have an above-average attack strength of 1.219 — the away xG of 1.56 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 25 Charlton games / 71 Sheffield Utd games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Charlton 34% | Draw 25% | Sheffield Utd 40%. Fair-value odds: Charlton 2.94 | Draw 4.00 | Sheffield Utd 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.42 / 1.56) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sheffield Utd as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sheffield Utd offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.98 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Charlton 60% | Sheffield Utd 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charlton vs Sheffield Utd | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: The Valley • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Jan 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charlton 34% | Draw 25% | Sheffield Utd 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 60% | xG Charlton 1.42 / Sheffield Utd 1.56 • Poisson strength factors: Charlton attack 0.799 / def 1.121 | Sheffield Utd attack 1.219 / def 1.273 | league avg home 1.396 / away 1.140 • Poisson stance: Sheffield Utd (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Charlton xG
Expected Goals
1.56
Sheffield Utd xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Charlton vs Sheffield Utd kick off?
Charlton vs Sheffield Utd kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 17 January 2026 at The Valley.
What was the final score in Charlton vs Sheffield Utd?
Charlton 1 - 0 Sheffield Utd.
Where is Charlton vs Sheffield Utd being played?
The match is being played at The Valley.
What competition is Charlton vs Sheffield Utd part of?
Charlton vs Sheffield Utd is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Charlton vs Sheffield Utd?
Our statistical model gives Charlton a 34% chance of winning, Sheffield Utd a 40% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Sheffield Utd the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charlton vs Sheffield Utd?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Charlton and Sheffield Utd will score (BTTS).
Will Charlton vs Sheffield Utd have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Charlton and Sheffield Utd?
Record (1 meetings): Charlton 1W | Draws 0 | Sheffield Utd 0W.
What form are Charlton and Sheffield Utd in?
Charlton (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-L-D-D. Sheffield Utd (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Charlton's attacking strength (0.80x league average) is weighed against Sheffield Utd's defensive record (1.27x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.42. The same calculation in reverse, Sheffield Utd's attack versus Charlton's defence, projects 1.56 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 25/71 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sheffield Utd Win
34%
2.91
25%
3.96
40%
2.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
2 – 1
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Charlton xG
Total xG
2.98
1.56
Sheffield Utd xG
2.91
34%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
2.47
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.52
Clean Sheet
21%
4.75
24%
4.14
Win to Nil
7%
13.85
10%
10.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 7.9 | 6.2 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 11.3 | 8.8 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 8.0 | 6.2 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.8 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Charlton vs Sheffield Utd?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Charlton and Sheffield Utd expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Charlton and 1.56 for Sheffield Utd, a combined total of 2.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Charlton vs Sheffield Utd?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Charlton's recent record stands at 34W 19D 21L from 74 games, a 1.64 PPG return, with W-L-L-D-D in the last five. The sample for Charlton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sheffield Utd, meanwhile, have gone 40W 10D 24L across 74 games — 1.76 PPG, with L-W-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for Sheffield Utd is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Charlton on 1.64 PPG, Sheffield Utd on 1.76. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Charlton have managed 22W 9D 5L from 36 games — 2.08 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.64 PPG overall — Charlton are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Sheffield Utd's away record stands at 18W 4D 14L across 36 trips, a 1.61 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Charlton come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Charlton are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.01 conceded per game recently; Sheffield Utd are on 1.43 scored and 1.03 conceded.
Defensively: Charlton have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games; Sheffield Utd in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 74 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charlton
Blended
Sheffield Utd
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Charlton and Sheffield Utd in coming into this match?
Charlton have gone 34W 19D 21L in their last 74 games (1.64 PPG), while Sheffield Utd have gone 40W 10D 24L in their last 74 (1.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charlton at home or Sheffield Utd away?
Charlton's home record (2.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charlton at home: 2.08 PPG; Sheffield Utd away: 1.61 PPG.
Have Charlton or Sheffield Utd been keeping clean sheets recently?
Charlton have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Sheffield Utd in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 17 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Charlton
0
Draws
0
Sheffield Utd
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Charlton and Sheffield Utd?
From 2 meetings on record, Charlton have won 2, Sheffield Utd have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Charlton and Sheffield Utd last play each other?
They last met on 17 January 2026, when Charlton 1-0 Sheffield Utd.
Who has won more matches between Charlton and Sheffield Utd?
Charlton have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Charlton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Sheffield Utd are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Charlton 50%, Sheffield Utd 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Charlton) and 50% (Sheffield Utd).
On the defensive side: Charlton keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Sheffield Utd in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charlton home games / Sheffield Utd away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Charlton play Sheffield Utd?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Charlton's recent matches and 44% of Sheffield Utd's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Charlton vs Sheffield Utd usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Charlton's recent games and 50% of Sheffield Utd's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Charlton and Sheffield Utd tend to score early?
Charlton have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Sheffield Utd in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Charlton defy the odds to beat Sheffield Utd 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Charlton beat Sheffield Utd 1-0 at The Valley, Regular Season - 27, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Charlton 1.42 xG and Sheffield Utd 1.56 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Sheffield Utd landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charlton attack 0.80 / defence 1.12 against Sheffield Utd attack 1.22 / defence 1.27, drawn from 25/71 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Charlton 34% | Draw 25% | Sheffield Utd 40%, with Sheffield Utd to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Charlton win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charlton 46%, Sheffield Utd 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Charlton's trading profile (74 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Sheffield Utd's trading profile (74 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Charlton 1.64 PPG, Sheffield Utd 1.76 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Charlton win broke the near-deadlock. Sheffield Utd (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.36 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.