Cardiff 2-2 Plymouth – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cardiff at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cardiff vs Plymouth fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Plymouth make the trip to Cardiff City Stadium to face Cardiff in Championship, Regular Season - 24. The match kicks off on Tuesday 26 December 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Cardiff (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Championship fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W L L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Cardiff, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cardiff at Cardiff City Stadium this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Cardiff are significantly better at Cardiff City Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Plymouth's overall Championship record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W L D W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.90. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Plymouth, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Plymouth have gone 0W 3D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for Cardiff against 1.20 for Plymouth. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading & In-Play
Cardiff — key trading statistics (69 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Plymouth — key trading statistics (69 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cardiff 42% versus Plymouth 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cardiff 39% | Plymouth 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cardiff 1.43 xG and Plymouth 0.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cardiff attack 0.880 / defence 0.904 | Plymouth attack 0.628 / defence 1.145. League average goals — home 1.415 / away 1.201. Data: 69 Cardiff games / 23 Plymouth games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cardiff 54% | Draw 28% | Plymouth 17%. Fair-value odds: Cardiff 1.85 | Draw 3.57 | Plymouth 5.88. Cardiff hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 2.11. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.11 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Cardiff as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cardiff if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.11 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 38% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Cardiff 40% | Plymouth 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cardiff vs Plymouth | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Cardiff City Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 26 Dec 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cardiff 54% | Draw 28% | Plymouth 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 38% | xG Cardiff 1.43 / Plymouth 0.68 • Poisson strength factors: Cardiff attack 0.880 / def 0.904 | Plymouth attack 0.628 / def 1.145 | league avg home 1.415 / away 1.201 • Poisson stance: Cardiff (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Cardiff xG
Expected Goals
0.68
Plymouth xG
38%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cardiff vs Plymouth kick off?
Cardiff vs Plymouth kicked off at 15:00 on Tuesday 26 December 2023 at Cardiff City Stadium.
What was the final score in Cardiff vs Plymouth?
Cardiff 2 - 2 Plymouth.
Where is Cardiff vs Plymouth being played?
The match is being played at Cardiff City Stadium.
What competition is Cardiff vs Plymouth part of?
Cardiff vs Plymouth is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Cardiff vs Plymouth?
Our statistical model gives Cardiff a 54% chance of winning, Plymouth a 17% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Cardiff the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cardiff vs Plymouth?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Cardiff and Plymouth will score (BTTS).
Will Cardiff vs Plymouth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cardiff and Plymouth?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cardiff and Plymouth in?
Cardiff (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-L-W. Plymouth (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Cardiff's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against Plymouth's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.43. Flip it around — Plymouth's attack (0.63x) against Cardiff's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 0.68.
These ratings are built from 69/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 15.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.7%), 1-1 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cardiff Win
54%
1.84
28%
3.54
17%
5.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.4%
Home win
0 – 0
12.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Cardiff xG
Total xG
2.11
0.68
Plymouth xG
1.84
54%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
5.77
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.62
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
51%
1.98
24%
4.16
Win to Nil
28%
3.63
4%
24.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.1 | 8.3 | 2.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.3 | 11.8 | 4.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.4 | 8.4 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.9 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cardiff vs Plymouth?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.8%.
How many goals are Cardiff and Plymouth expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Cardiff and 0.68 for Plymouth, a combined total of 2.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Cardiff vs Plymouth?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Cardiff's recent record stands at 23W 13D 33L from 69 games, a 1.19 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for Cardiff is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Plymouth, meanwhile, have gone 38W 14D 17L across 69 games — 1.86 PPG, with W-L-D-W-D in their last five. The sample for Plymouth is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Plymouth by 0.67 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Cardiff heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Cardiff have managed 12W 8D 14L from 34 games — 1.29 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Plymouth's away record stands at 11W 11D 12L across 34 trips, a 1.29 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.86 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Plymouth's season.
Attack vs Defence
Cardiff are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Plymouth are on 1.72 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Last 69 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cardiff
Blended
Plymouth
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cardiff and Plymouth in coming into this match?
Cardiff have gone 23W 13D 33L in their last 69 games (1.19 PPG), while Plymouth have gone 38W 14D 17L in their last 69 (1.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cardiff at home or Plymouth away?
Cardiff's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cardiff at home: 1.29 PPG; Plymouth away: 1.29 PPG.
Have Cardiff or Plymouth been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cardiff have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Plymouth in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Championship, League One all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Cardiff won 5-0 on 19 Oct 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cardiff have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Plymouth — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Cardiff
2
Draws
2
Plymouth
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cardiff and Plymouth?
From 6 meetings on record, Cardiff have won 2, Plymouth have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cardiff and Plymouth last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Plymouth 5-2 Cardiff.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cardiff see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches.
Plymouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cardiff 47%, Plymouth 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Cardiff) and 59% (Plymouth).
On the defensive side: Cardiff keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Plymouth in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cardiff home games / Plymouth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cardiff play Plymouth?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Cardiff's recent matches and 59% of Plymouth's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cardiff vs Plymouth usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Cardiff's recent games and 59% of Plymouth's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cardiff and Plymouth tend to score early?
Cardiff have had a goal before half-time in 47% of their recent matches, Plymouth in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cardiff and Plymouth share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cardiff and Plymouth finished level at 2-2 at Cardiff City Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cardiff 1.43 xG and Plymouth 0.68 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Plymouth outscored their 0.68 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cardiff attack 0.88 / defence 0.90 against Plymouth attack 0.63 / defence 1.15, drawn from 69/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cardiff 54% | Draw 28% | Plymouth 17%, with Cardiff to win its most likely call at 54%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cardiff 39%, Plymouth 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cardiff's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
Plymouth's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Plymouth arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 1.19. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Cardiff (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.