Cardiff 3-1 Charlton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cardiff at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cardiff vs Charlton fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Cardiff and Charlton meet at Cardiff City Stadium in Championship, Regular Season - 8. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 19 September 2026 at 11:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Cardiff have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Championship outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: D L L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Cardiff have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Cardiff at Cardiff City Stadium this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Cardiff are significantly better at Cardiff City Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Charlton's overall Championship record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W D L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Charlton have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Charlton have gone 2W 6D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Charlton arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 1.00) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading
Cardiff half-time and goal-timing data (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Charlton half-time and goal-timing data (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 42% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cardiff 57% versus Charlton 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cardiff 53% | Charlton 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cardiff 1.34 xG and Charlton 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cardiff attack 0.872 / defence 1.141 | Charlton attack 0.933 / defence 1.051. League average goals — home 1.467 / away 1.222. Data: 7 Cardiff games / 53 Charlton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cardiff 36% | Draw 30% | Charlton 34%. Fair-value odds: Cardiff 2.78 | Draw 3.33 | Charlton 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Cardiff as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Charlton (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cardiff if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.65 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Cardiff 50% | Charlton 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cardiff vs Charlton | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Cardiff City Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Sep 2026, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cardiff 36% | Draw 30% | Charlton 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 56% | xG Cardiff 1.34 / Charlton 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Cardiff attack 0.872 / def 1.141 | Charlton attack 0.933 / def 1.051 | league avg home 1.467 / away 1.222 • Poisson stance: Cardiff (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Cardiff xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Charlton xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cardiff vs Charlton kick off?
Cardiff vs Charlton kicked off at 11:30 on Saturday 19 September 2026 at Cardiff City Stadium.
What was the final score in Cardiff vs Charlton?
Cardiff 3 - 1 Charlton.
Where is Cardiff vs Charlton being played?
The match is being played at Cardiff City Stadium.
What competition is Cardiff vs Charlton part of?
Cardiff vs Charlton is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Cardiff vs Charlton?
Our statistical model gives Cardiff a 36% chance of winning, Charlton a 34% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Cardiff the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cardiff vs Charlton?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Cardiff and Charlton will score (BTTS).
Will Cardiff vs Charlton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cardiff and Charlton?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cardiff and Charlton in?
Cardiff (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-L-D-L. Charlton (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Cardiff's attack rating (0.87) and Charlton's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 1.34 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Charlton's attack (0.93x) against Cardiff's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 1.30.
These ratings are built from 7/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.7%), 2-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cardiff Win
36%
2.79
30%
3.30
34%
2.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Cardiff xG
Total xG
2.65
1.30
Charlton xG
2.79
36%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
2.96
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
27%
3.67
26%
3.83
Win to Nil
10%
10.25
9%
11.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 9.2 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.4 | 8.1 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.3 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.7 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cardiff vs Charlton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Cardiff and Charlton expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Cardiff and 1.30 for Charlton, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Cardiff vs Charlton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 53 outings, Cardiff have picked up 1.79 PPG on a 27W 14D 12L record — D-L-L-D-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Cardiff, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Charlton's form line: 16W 17D 20L from 53 games, 1.23 PPG, last five W-D-L-D-D. It's still early in the season for Charlton, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Cardiff are the form team by 0.56 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Charlton.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Cardiff have posted 2.15 PPG from 26 outings (17W 5D 4L).
On the road, Charlton have gone 5W 11D 10L from 26 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cardiff come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Cardiff are averaging 1.83 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Charlton are on 0.94 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Last 53 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cardiff
Early Season
Charlton
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cardiff and Charlton in coming into this match?
Cardiff have gone 27W 14D 12L in their last 53 games (1.79 PPG), while Charlton have gone 16W 17D 20L in their last 53 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cardiff at home or Charlton away?
Cardiff's home record (2.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cardiff at home: 2.15 PPG; Charlton away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Cardiff or Charlton been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cardiff have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Charlton in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 1 times since September 2026 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. The two were last together as recently as 19 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
1
Cardiff
0
Draws
0
Charlton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cardiff and Charlton?
From 1 meetings on record, Cardiff have won 1, Charlton have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Cardiff and Charlton last play each other?
They last met on 19 September 2026, when Cardiff 3-1 Charlton.
Who has won more matches between Cardiff and Charlton?
Cardiff have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Cardiff are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Charlton see a goal before the break in 42% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cardiff 54%, Charlton 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Cardiff) and 38% (Charlton).
On the defensive side: Cardiff keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Charlton in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cardiff home games / Charlton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cardiff play Charlton?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Cardiff's games and 58% of Charlton's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cardiff vs Charlton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Cardiff's recent games and 38% of Charlton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cardiff and Charlton tend to score early?
Cardiff have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Charlton in 42% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cardiff cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Charlton.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cardiff beat Charlton 3-1 at Cardiff City Stadium, Regular Season - 8, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cardiff 1.34 xG and Charlton 1.30 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Cardiff beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cardiff attack 0.87 / defence 1.14 against Charlton attack 0.93 / defence 1.05, drawn from 7/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cardiff 36% | Draw 30% | Charlton 34%, with Cardiff to win its most likely call at 36%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cardiff 53%, Charlton 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cardiff's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Charlton's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Cardiff arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 1.23. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Cardiff (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.08 average — above their attacking norm. Charlton (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.46 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.