Burnley vs Swansea – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Swansea at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Burnley vs Swansea encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Burnley and Swansea meet at Turf Moor in Championship, Regular Season - 31. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 13 February 2027 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Burnley's overall Championship record this term: 0W 5D 5L from 10 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: D L D L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Burnley, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Burnley's form when playing at home: 0W 6D 4L across 10 games at Turf Moor this term (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Swansea have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 Championship outings this season: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: W D L W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Swansea, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Swansea away from home this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 away games — 2.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Swansea arrive in superior form — a 1.60 PPG advantage (2.10 vs 0.50) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Burnley register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Swansea in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Historically, Burnley have had the better of this match-up — 4 wins from 5 meetings, with Swansea managing just 1 victories and 0 draws shared.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 2.8 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 12 Sep 2026, ended 1–3 with Swansea winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Burnley and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 2.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading
Burnley half-time and goal-timing data (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
Swansea half-time and goal-timing data (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Burnley 65% versus Swansea 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Burnley 52% | Swansea 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Burnley 1.12 xG and Swansea 1.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Burnley attack 0.813 / defence 1.122 | Swansea attack 1.204 / defence 0.916. League average goals — home 1.502 / away 1.240. Swansea have an above-average attack strength of 1.204 — the away xG of 1.68 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 8 Burnley games / 54 Swansea games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Burnley 23% | Draw 28% | Swansea 48%. Fair-value odds: Burnley 4.35 | Draw 3.57 | Swansea 2.08. Swansea hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
Burnley dominate the H2H record, yet Swansea are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Swansea at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Swansea if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.79 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Burnley 70% | Swansea 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Burnley vs Swansea | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Turf Moor • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Feb 2027, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Burnley 23% | Draw 28% | Swansea 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG Burnley 1.12 / Swansea 1.68 • Poisson strength factors: Burnley attack 0.813 / def 1.122 | Swansea attack 1.204 / def 0.916 | league avg home 1.502 / away 1.240 • Poisson stance: Swansea (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Burnley xG
Expected Goals
1.68
Swansea xG
57%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Burnley vs Swansea kick off?
Burnley vs Swansea is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Saturday 13 February 2027 at Turf Moor.
Where is Burnley vs Swansea being played?
The match is being played at Turf Moor.
What competition is Burnley vs Swansea part of?
Burnley vs Swansea is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Burnley vs Swansea?
Our statistical model gives Burnley a 23% chance of winning, Swansea a 48% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Swansea the favourite.
Will both teams score in Burnley vs Swansea?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Burnley and Swansea will score (BTTS).
Will Burnley vs Swansea have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Burnley and Swansea?
Record (5 meetings): Burnley 4W | Draws 0 | Swansea 1W.
What form are Burnley and Swansea in?
Burnley (all comps): 0W-5D-5L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-D-L-D. Swansea (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Burnley's attacking strength (0.81x league average) is weighed against Swansea's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.12. Flip it around — Swansea's attack (1.20x) against Burnley's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.68.
These ratings are built from 8/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-1 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Swansea Win
23%
4.28
28%
3.53
48%
2.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Burnley xG
Total xG
2.79
1.68
Swansea xG
4.28
23%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
2.07
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
19%
5.34
33%
3.06
Win to Nil
4%
22.86
16%
6.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 10.3 | 8.6 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 11.5 | 9.6 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 6.4 | 5.4 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Burnley vs Swansea?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Burnley and Swansea expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Burnley and 1.68 for Swansea, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Burnley vs Swansea?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Burnley come into this having played 46 games, going 4W 14D 28L for 0.57 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-L-D. The sample for Burnley is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Swansea sit at 1.50 PPG from 46 outings (20W 9D 17L), a run that reads W-D-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for Swansea is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Swansea carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.93 PPG clear of Burnley — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Burnley's home form reads 2W 10D 11L across 23 games on their own ground, a 0.70 PPG return.
Away from home, Swansea have taken 1.22 points per game from 23 outings (8W 4D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Swansea come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Burnley are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Swansea are on 1.33 scored and 1.26 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Burnley have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 46 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Burnley
Blended
Swansea
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Burnley and Swansea in coming into this match?
Burnley have gone 4W 14D 28L in their last 46 games (0.57 PPG), while Swansea have gone 20W 9D 17L in their last 46 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Burnley at home or Swansea away?
Swansea's away record (1.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Burnley at home: 0.70 PPG; Swansea away: 1.22 PPG.
Have Burnley or Swansea been keeping clean sheets recently?
Burnley have kept a clean sheet in 9% of their recent games, Swansea in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. The two were last together as recently as 12 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Burnley won 4-0 on 15 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Burnley have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Swansea — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
4
Burnley
0
Draws
1
Swansea
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Burnley and Swansea?
From 5 meetings on record, Burnley have won 4, Swansea have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Burnley and Swansea last play each other?
They last met on 12 September 2026, when Swansea 3-1 Burnley.
Who has won more matches between Burnley and Swansea?
Burnley have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Burnley are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Swansea are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Burnley 52%, Swansea 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Burnley) and 61% (Swansea).
On the defensive side: Burnley have failed to score in 39% of games; Swansea in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Burnley home games / Swansea away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Burnley play Swansea?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Burnley's recent matches and 56% of Swansea's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Burnley vs Swansea usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Burnley's recent games and 61% of Swansea's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Burnley and Swansea tend to score early?
Burnley have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Swansea in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.