Burnley 4-0 Sheffield Wednesday – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Burnley at 42% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Burnley vs Sheffield Wednesday encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Burnley and Sheffield Wednesday meet at Turf Moor in Championship (matchday 34). This fixture gets under way on Friday 21 February 2025 at 20:00 UK time.
Form
Burnley (all games): 4W 6D 0L across their last 10 — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D D W W D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.00 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 10 clean sheets from 10 games (100%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
In front of their own supporters, Burnley have posted 5W 5D 0L from their last 10 home games — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.20 conceded per game. 8 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (80%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Sheffield Wednesday have collected 1.20 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: W D L W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Sheffield Wednesday have gone 5W 1D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Burnley's 1.80 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Sheffield Wednesday's 1.20 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, Burnley edge it 1 wins to 0, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 19 Oct 2024, ended Burnley 2–0 Sheffield Wednesday — a Burnley win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Burnley — key trading statistics (last 71 games, 35 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Sheffield Wednesday — key trading statistics (last 71 games, 35 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 25 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 32%; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Burnley 44% versus Sheffield Wednesday 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Burnley 41% | Sheffield Wednesday 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Burnley 1.00 xG and Sheffield Wednesday 0.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Burnley attack 0.728 / defence 0.566 | Sheffield Wednesday attack 1.179 / defence 1.025. League average goals — home 1.347 / away 1.036. Burnley's attack rating of 0.728 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.00. Burnley have a tight defence (rating 0.566), which is pulling Sheffield Wednesday's projected output down. Data: built from Burnley's last 33 games and Sheffield Wednesday's last 79.
Result probabilities: Burnley 42% | Draw 34% | Sheffield Wednesday 24%. Fair-value odds: Burnley 2.41 | Draw 2.91 | Sheffield Wednesday 4.15. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 24% | BTTS Yes probability 32% | Total xG 1.70. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 76% probability — total xG of 1.70 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No has firm model support at 68% — Sheffield Wednesday's lower xG of 0.69 gives a real chance they fail to score.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Burnley at 42% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Burnley if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.70 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 76% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Burnley's last 10 home games and Sheffield Wednesday's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 68% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Burnley 20% (last 10 home games) | Sheffield Wednesday 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Burnley vs Sheffield Wednesday | Competition: Championship, matchday 34 | Venue: Turf Moor • Kick-off: Friday 21 February 2025 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Burnley 42% | Draw 34% | Sheffield Wednesday 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 24% (Under 76%) | BTTS Yes 32% (No 68%) | xG Burnley 1.00 / Sheffield Wednesday 0.69 • Poisson strength factors: Burnley attack 0.728 / def 0.566 | Sheffield Wednesday attack 1.179 / def 1.025 | league avg home 1.347 / away 1.036 • Poisson stance: Burnley (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Burnley xG
Expected Goals
0.69
Sheffield Wednesday xG
32%
BTTS
51%
Over 1.5
24%
Over 2.5
9%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Burnley vs Sheffield Wednesday FAQs
What time does Burnley vs Sheffield Wednesday kick off?
Burnley vs Sheffield Wednesday kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Friday 21 February 2025 at Turf Moor.
What was the final score in Burnley vs Sheffield Wednesday?
Burnley 4 - 0 Sheffield Wednesday.
Where is Burnley vs Sheffield Wednesday being played?
The match is being played at Turf Moor.
What competition is Burnley vs Sheffield Wednesday part of?
Burnley vs Sheffield Wednesday is a Championship fixture (matchday 34) (England).
Who is favourite to win Burnley vs Sheffield Wednesday?
Our statistical model gives Burnley a 42% chance of winning, Sheffield Wednesday a 24% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Burnley the favourite.
Will both teams score in Burnley vs Sheffield Wednesday?
Our model estimates a 32% probability that both Burnley and Sheffield Wednesday will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (68%).
Will Burnley vs Sheffield Wednesday have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 24%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (76%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Burnley's attacking strength (0.73x league average) is weighed against Sheffield Wednesday's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.00. Flip it around — Sheffield Wednesday's attack (1.18x) against Burnley's defence (0.57x) — and the away total comes out at 0.69.
These ratings are built from Burnley's last 33 games and Sheffield Wednesday's last 79 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 20.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (16.8%), 1-1 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 51% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Burnley Win
42%
2.41
34%
2.91
24%
4.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.4%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
18.3%
Draw
0 – 1
12.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Burnley xG
Total xG
1.70
0.69
Sheffield Wednesday xG
2.41
42%
Home win
2.91
34%
Draw
4.15
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
51%
Over 1.5
1.96
49%
Under 1.5
2.04
24%
Over 2.5
4.17
76%
Under 2.5
1.32
9%
Over 3.5
11.11
91%
Under 3.5
1.10
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
32%
BTTS Yes
3.12
68%
BTTS No
1.47
Clean Sheet
50%
2.00
37%
2.73
Win to Nil
21%
4.80
9%
11.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 18.3 | 12.7 | 4.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 18.4 | 12.7 | 4.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 9.3 | 6.4 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Burnley vs Sheffield Wednesday Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Burnley vs Sheffield Wednesday?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 20.0%.
How many goals are Burnley and Sheffield Wednesday expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Burnley and 0.69 for Sheffield Wednesday, a combined total of 1.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Burnley vs Sheffield Wednesday?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Burnley's recent record stands at 22W 23D 26L from 71 games, a 1.25 PPG return, with D-D-W-W-D in the last five.
Sheffield Wednesday, meanwhile, have gone 27W 15D 29L across 71 games — 1.35 PPG, with W-D-L-W-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.25 PPG for Burnley against 1.35 for Sheffield Wednesday. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Burnley have managed 10W 12D 13L from their last 35 home games — 1.20 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sheffield Wednesday's away record stands at 14W 2D 19L across their last 35 away games, a 1.26 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Burnley are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Sheffield Wednesday are on 1.20 scored and 1.46 conceded.
Defensively: Burnley have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 71 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Burnley
Current Season
Sheffield Wednesday
Current Season
Burnley (Home) vs Sheffield Wednesday (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Burnley
Current Season
Sheffield Wednesday
Current Season
❓ Burnley vs Sheffield Wednesday Form FAQs
What form are Burnley and Sheffield Wednesday in coming into this match?
Burnley have gone 22W 23D 26L in their last 71 games (1.25 PPG), while Sheffield Wednesday have gone 27W 15D 29L in their last 71 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Burnley at home or Sheffield Wednesday away?
Sheffield Wednesday's away record (1.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Burnley at home: 1.20 PPG; Sheffield Wednesday away: 1.26 PPG.
Have Burnley or Sheffield Wednesday been keeping clean sheets recently?
Burnley have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Sheffield Wednesday in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 2 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2024 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Championship. The most recent in our data was on 21 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Burnley
0
Draws
0
Sheffield Wednesday
Recent Meetings
❓ Burnley vs Sheffield Wednesday H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Burnley and Sheffield Wednesday?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Burnley have won 2, Sheffield Wednesday have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Burnley and Sheffield Wednesday last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 21 February 2025: Burnley 4-0 Sheffield Wednesday.
Who has won more matches between Burnley and Sheffield Wednesday?
Burnley have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Burnley are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Sheffield Wednesday are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Burnley 43%, Sheffield Wednesday 31% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Burnley) and 51% (Sheffield Wednesday).
On the defensive side: Burnley keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Burnley have failed to score in 37% of games; Sheffield Wednesday in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Burnley home games / Sheffield Wednesday away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Burnley vs Sheffield Wednesday Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Burnley and Sheffield Wednesday matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Burnley's recent matches and 31% of Sheffield Wednesday's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Burnley and Sheffield Wednesday matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Burnley's recent games and 51% of Sheffield Wednesday's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Burnley and Sheffield Wednesday matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Burnley's recent matches and 63% of Sheffield Wednesday's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Burnley run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Sheffield Wednesday.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Burnley beat Sheffield Wednesday 4-0 at Turf Moor, Regular Season - 34, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Burnley 1.00 xG and Sheffield Wednesday 0.69 xG, a combined 1.70. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Burnley beat their projection by 3.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Burnley attack 0.73 / defence 0.57 against Sheffield Wednesday attack 1.18 / defence 1.02, drawn from 33/79 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Burnley 42% | Draw 34% | Sheffield Wednesday 24%, with Burnley to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 24%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 51% and landed. Over 3.5 was 9% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 32% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Burnley 41%, Sheffield Wednesday 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Burnley's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Sheffield Wednesday's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Burnley 1.25 PPG, Sheffield Wednesday 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Burnley win broke the near-deadlock. Burnley (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.34 average — tighter than their form line. Sheffield Wednesday (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.97 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.63 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
Related fixtures
More Championship fixtures — matchday 34
All Championship fixtures →
More UK football predictions →