Bristol City 1-1 Hull City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bristol City at 44% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Bristol City face Hull City.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Ashton Gate Stadium plays host to Bristol City versus Hull City in Championship (matchday 36). Kick-off: Saturday 8 March 2025 at 15:00 UK time.
Form
Bristol City (all games): 5W 3D 2L across their last 10 — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W D W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Bristol City's form when playing at home: 7W 1D 2L across their last 10 home games (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Hull City's record over their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). Last five: L D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Hull City away from home: 4W 0D 6L from their last 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.80 PPG for Bristol City against 1.40 for Hull City. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (from Bristol City's last 10 home games and Hull City's last 10 away games) — Bristol City have seen both teams score in just 30% of their matches, Hull City in only 20%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 7 H2H matches in our data: 3 wins for Bristol City, 1 for Hull City and 3 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.1 per game across the 7 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 10 Aug 2024, ended Bristol City 1–1 Hull City — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.1 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Bristol City goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 81 games, 40 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 55% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 41%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Hull City goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 81 games, 40 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; of the 25 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 32%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bristol City 47% versus Hull City 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bristol City 38% | Hull City 48%). Note also that Hull City surrender HT leads in 40% of cases while Bristol City recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 41% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bristol City 1.14 xG and Hull City 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bristol City attack 0.980 / defence 0.787 | Hull City attack 0.902 / defence 0.869. League average goals — home 1.341 / away 1.046. Bristol City have a tight defence (rating 0.787), which is pulling Hull City's projected output down. Data: built from Bristol City's last 81 games and Hull City's last 81.
Result probabilities: Bristol City 44% | Draw 32% | Hull City 23%. Fair-value odds: Bristol City 2.25 | Draw 3.08 | Hull City 4.32. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS Yes probability 36% | Total xG 1.88. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.88 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 64% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Bristol City as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bristol City if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.88 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 71% — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Bristol City's last 10 home games and Hull City's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging 3.1 goals per game across 7 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Bristol City 30% (last 10 home games) | Hull City 20% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bristol City vs Hull City | Competition: Championship, matchday 36 | Venue: Ashton Gate Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 8 March 2025 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bristol City 44% | Draw 32% | Hull City 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% (Under 71%) | BTTS Yes 36% (No 64%) | xG Bristol City 1.14 / Hull City 0.74 • Poisson strength factors: Bristol City attack 0.980 / def 0.787 | Hull City attack 0.902 / def 0.869 | league avg home 1.341 / away 1.046 • Poisson stance: Bristol City (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Bristol City xG
Expected Goals
0.74
Hull City xG
36%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Bristol City vs Hull City FAQs
What time does Bristol City vs Hull City kick off?
Bristol City vs Hull City kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 8 March 2025 at Ashton Gate Stadium.
What was the final score in Bristol City vs Hull City?
Bristol City 1 - 1 Hull City.
Where is Bristol City vs Hull City being played?
The match is being played at Ashton Gate Stadium.
What competition is Bristol City vs Hull City part of?
Bristol City vs Hull City is a Championship fixture (matchday 36) (England).
Who is favourite to win Bristol City vs Hull City?
Our statistical model gives Bristol City a 44% chance of winning, Hull City a 23% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Bristol City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bristol City vs Hull City?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Bristol City and Hull City will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (64%).
Will Bristol City vs Hull City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (71%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Bristol City's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Hull City's defensive record (0.87x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.14. Flip it around — Hull City's attack (0.90x) against Bristol City's defence (0.79x) — and the away total comes out at 0.74.
These ratings are built from Bristol City's last 81 games and Hull City's last 81 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 16.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.7%), 1-1 (14.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bristol City Win
44%
2.25
32%
3.08
23%
4.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.3%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.2%
Draw
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Bristol City xG
Total xG
1.88
0.74
Hull City xG
2.25
44%
Home win
3.08
32%
Draw
4.32
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.75
64%
BTTS No
1.57
Clean Sheet
48%
2.10
32%
3.13
Win to Nil
21%
4.74
7%
13.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.2 | 11.3 | 4.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.3 | 12.9 | 4.8 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 9.9 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.8 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Bristol City vs Hull City Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Bristol City vs Hull City?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.9%.
How many goals are Bristol City and Hull City expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Bristol City and 0.74 for Hull City, a combined total of 1.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Bristol City vs Hull City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 81 outings, Bristol City have picked up 1.41 PPG on a 30W 24D 27L record — L-W-D-W-W across the most recent five.
Hull City's form line: 28W 22D 31L from 81 games, 1.31 PPG, last five L-D-W-L-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.41 PPG for Bristol City against 1.31 for Hull City. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Bristol City have posted 1.72 PPG from their last 40 home games (20W 9D 11L).
On the road, Hull City have gone 17W 6D 17L from their last 40 away games — 1.42 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Bristol City are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Hull City are on 1.27 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Last 81 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bristol City
Current Season
Hull City
Current Season
Bristol City (Home) vs Hull City (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Bristol City
Current Season
Hull City
Current Season
❓ Bristol City vs Hull City Form FAQs
What form are Bristol City and Hull City in coming into this match?
Bristol City have gone 30W 24D 27L in their last 81 games (1.41 PPG), while Hull City have gone 28W 22D 31L in their last 81 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bristol City at home or Hull City away?
Bristol City's home record (1.72 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bristol City at home: 1.72 PPG; Hull City away: 1.42 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Bristol City and Hull City, the earliest from December 2021. All of them came in Championship. The most recent was on 7 February 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Bristol City have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bristol City won Bristol City 5-0 Hull City on 30 Apr 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bristol City have gone 4W 1D 0L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Hull City — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Bristol City
4
Draws
1
Hull City
Recent Meetings
❓ Bristol City vs Hull City H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Bristol City and Hull City?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Bristol City have won 5, Hull City have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Bristol City and Hull City last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 February 2026: Hull City 2-3 Bristol City.
Who has won more matches between Bristol City and Hull City?
Bristol City have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Bristol City see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
Hull City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 36% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bristol City 42%, Hull City 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Bristol City) and 55% (Hull City).
On the defensive side: Bristol City keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Bristol City have failed to score in 28% of games; Hull City in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bristol City home games / Hull City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Bristol City vs Hull City Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Bristol City and Hull City matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Bristol City's recent matches and 52% of Hull City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Bristol City and Hull City matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Bristol City's recent games and 55% of Hull City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bristol City and Hull City matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 55% of Bristol City's recent matches and 68% of Hull City's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bristol City and Hull City share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bristol City and Hull City finished level at 1-1 at Ashton Gate Stadium, Regular Season - 36, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bristol City 1.14 xG and Hull City 0.74 xG, a combined 1.88. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bristol City attack 0.98 / defence 0.79 against Hull City attack 0.90 / defence 0.87, drawn from 81/81 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bristol City 44% | Draw 32% | Hull City 23%, with Bristol City to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bristol City 38%, Hull City 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bristol City's trading profile (81 games, 40 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Hull City's trading profile (81 games, 40 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bristol City 1.41 PPG, Hull City 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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