Blackburn 1-0 Swansea – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Blackburn at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Blackburn vs Swansea encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Championship encounter, Regular Season - 10 sees Swansea travel to Ewood Park to take on Blackburn. The game is scheduled for Saturday 19 October 2024, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Blackburn stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Championship matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Blackburn, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Blackburn's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 games at Ewood Park this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Swansea — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Championship fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W W D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Swansea, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Swansea have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Blackburn carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.80 vs 1.20. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Blackburn, 3 for Swansea and 0 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Mar 2024, ended 1–2 with Swansea winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Blackburn trading profile (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
Swansea trading profile (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Blackburn 58% versus Swansea 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Blackburn 64% | Swansea 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Blackburn 1.60 xG and Swansea 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Blackburn attack 1.194 / defence 0.959 | Swansea attack 0.938 / defence 0.898. League average goals — home 1.495 / away 0.945. Data: 55 Blackburn games / 55 Swansea games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Blackburn 54% | Draw 27% | Swansea 19%. Fair-value odds: Blackburn 1.85 | Draw 3.70 | Swansea 5.26. Blackburn hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Blackburn as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Blackburn offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.45 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates corroborate: Blackburn 50% | Swansea 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Blackburn vs Swansea | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Ewood Park • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Oct 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Blackburn 54% | Draw 27% | Swansea 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 47% | xG Blackburn 1.60 / Swansea 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Blackburn attack 1.194 / def 0.959 | Swansea attack 0.938 / def 0.898 | league avg home 1.495 / away 0.945 • Poisson stance: Blackburn (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Blackburn xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Swansea xG
47%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Blackburn vs Swansea kick off?
Blackburn vs Swansea kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 19 October 2024 at Ewood Park.
What was the final score in Blackburn vs Swansea?
Blackburn 1 - 0 Swansea.
Where is Blackburn vs Swansea being played?
The match is being played at Ewood Park.
What competition is Blackburn vs Swansea part of?
Blackburn vs Swansea is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Blackburn vs Swansea?
Our statistical model gives Blackburn a 54% chance of winning, Swansea a 19% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Blackburn the favourite.
Will both teams score in Blackburn vs Swansea?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Blackburn and Swansea will score (BTTS).
Will Blackburn vs Swansea have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Blackburn and Swansea?
Record (6 meetings): Blackburn 3W | Draws 0 | Swansea 3W.
What form are Blackburn and Swansea in?
Blackburn (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-L-L. Swansea (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Blackburn's attack at 1.19x the league average against Swansea's defence at 0.90x — combine the two and it projects 1.60 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Swansea's attack versus Blackburn's defence, projects 0.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.3%), 2-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Blackburn Win
54%
1.84
27%
3.74
19%
5.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
2 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Blackburn xG
Total xG
2.45
0.85
Swansea xG
1.84
54%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
5.27
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.15
53%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
43%
2.34
20%
4.97
Win to Nil
23%
4.31
4%
26.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 7.3 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.8 | 11.7 | 5.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.1 | 9.4 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.9 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Blackburn vs Swansea?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Blackburn and Swansea expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Blackburn and 0.85 for Swansea, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Blackburn vs Swansea?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Blackburn's recent record stands at 18W 14D 23L from 55 games, a 1.24 PPG return, with W-D-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Blackburn is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Swansea, meanwhile, have gone 18W 15D 22L across 55 games — 1.25 PPG, with W-W-D-L-D in their last five. The sample for Swansea is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Blackburn on 1.24 PPG, Swansea on 1.25. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Blackburn have managed 10W 7D 10L from 27 games — 1.37 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Swansea's away record stands at 8W 7D 12L across 27 trips, a 1.15 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Blackburn are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Swansea are on 1.22 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Last 55 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Blackburn
Blended
Swansea
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Blackburn and Swansea in coming into this match?
Blackburn have gone 18W 14D 23L in their last 55 games (1.24 PPG), while Swansea have gone 18W 15D 22L in their last 55 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Blackburn at home or Swansea away?
Blackburn's home record (1.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Blackburn at home: 1.37 PPG; Swansea away: 1.15 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Blackburn and Swansea runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 20 January 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Swansea have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Aug 2022, when Blackburn won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Blackburn's record when hosting Swansea specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Blackburn
0
Draws
6
Swansea
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Blackburn and Swansea?
From 10 meetings on record, Blackburn have won 4, Swansea have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Blackburn and Swansea last play each other?
They last met on 20 January 2026, when Swansea 3-1 Blackburn.
Who has won more matches between Blackburn and Swansea?
Swansea have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Blackburn are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Swansea are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Blackburn 70%, Swansea 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Blackburn) and 56% (Swansea). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Swansea in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Blackburn home games / Swansea away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Blackburn play Swansea?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Blackburn's games and 59% of Swansea's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Blackburn vs Swansea usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Blackburn's matches and 56% of Swansea's.
Do Blackburn and Swansea tend to score early?
Blackburn have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Swansea in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Blackburn edge out Swansea 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Blackburn beat Swansea 1-0 at Ewood Park, Regular Season - 10, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Blackburn 1.60 xG and Swansea 0.85 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Swansea landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Blackburn attack 1.19 / defence 0.96 against Swansea attack 0.94 / defence 0.90, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Blackburn 54% | Draw 27% | Swansea 19%, with Blackburn to win its most likely call at 54%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Blackburn 64%, Swansea 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Blackburn's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Swansea's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Blackburn 1.24 PPG, Swansea 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Blackburn win broke the near-deadlock. Blackburn (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.37 average — tighter than their form line. Swansea (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.