Blackburn 1-3 Sunderland – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sunderland at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Blackburn vs Sunderland fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Championship encounter, Regular Season - 7 sees Sunderland travel to Ewood Park to take on Blackburn. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 20 September 2023, 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Championship games this season, Blackburn have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: D L W L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Blackburn have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Blackburn at Ewood Park this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Sunderland — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Championship fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W D W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Sunderland have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sunderland's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Blackburn) versus 1.70 (Sunderland). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Blackburn, 1 for Sunderland and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Dec 2022, ended 1–2 with Sunderland winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Blackburn trading profile (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Sunderland trading profile (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Blackburn 44% versus Sunderland 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Blackburn 46% | Sunderland 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Blackburn 1.10 xG and Sunderland 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Blackburn attack 0.985 / defence 0.986 | Sunderland attack 1.085 / defence 0.822. League average goals — home 1.359 / away 1.208. Data: 52 Blackburn games / 52 Sunderland games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Blackburn 31% | Draw 30% | Sunderland 40%. Fair-value odds: Blackburn 3.23 | Draw 3.33 | Sunderland 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sunderland as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sunderland offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.39 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Blackburn 60% | Sunderland 40%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Blackburn vs Sunderland | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Ewood Park • Kick-off: Wednesday 20 Sep 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Blackburn 31% | Draw 30% | Sunderland 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG Blackburn 1.10 / Sunderland 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Blackburn attack 0.985 / def 0.986 | Sunderland attack 1.085 / def 0.822 | league avg home 1.359 / away 1.208 • Poisson stance: Sunderland (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Blackburn xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Sunderland xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Blackburn vs Sunderland kick off?
Blackburn vs Sunderland kicked off at 19:45 on Wednesday 20 September 2023 at Ewood Park.
What was the final score in Blackburn vs Sunderland?
Blackburn 1 - 3 Sunderland.
Where is Blackburn vs Sunderland being played?
The match is being played at Ewood Park.
What competition is Blackburn vs Sunderland part of?
Blackburn vs Sunderland is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Blackburn vs Sunderland?
Our statistical model gives Blackburn a 31% chance of winning, Sunderland a 40% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Sunderland the favourite.
Will both teams score in Blackburn vs Sunderland?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Blackburn and Sunderland will score (BTTS).
Will Blackburn vs Sunderland have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Blackburn and Sunderland?
Record (2 meetings): Blackburn 1W | Draws 0 | Sunderland 1W.
What form are Blackburn and Sunderland in?
Blackburn (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-W-L-W. Sunderland (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Blackburn's attack rating (0.98) and Sunderland's defence rating (0.82), the model arrives at 1.10 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sunderland's attack versus Blackburn's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.8%), 0-1 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sunderland Win
31%
3.27
30%
3.39
40%
2.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.8%
Away win
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Blackburn xG
Total xG
2.39
1.29
Sunderland xG
3.27
31%
Home win
3.39
30%
Draw
2.51
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.02
51%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
27%
3.64
33%
3.01
Win to Nil
8%
11.89
13%
7.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 11.8 | 7.6 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 13.0 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 7.2 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Blackburn vs Sunderland?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Blackburn and Sunderland expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Blackburn and 1.29 for Sunderland, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Blackburn vs Sunderland?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Blackburn come into this having played 52 games, going 23W 10D 19L for 1.52 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-L-W. It's still early in the season for Blackburn, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Sunderland sit at 1.50 PPG from 52 outings (21W 15D 16L), a run that reads L-W-D-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Sunderland, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Blackburn on 1.52 PPG, Sunderland on 1.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Blackburn's home form reads 15W 4D 7L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.88 PPG return.
Away from home, Sunderland have taken 1.54 points per game from 26 outings (11W 7D 8L).
Goals in Recent Form
Blackburn are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Sunderland are on 1.50 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Last 52 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Blackburn
Early Season
Sunderland
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Blackburn and Sunderland in coming into this match?
Blackburn have gone 23W 10D 19L in their last 52 games (1.52 PPG), while Sunderland have gone 21W 15D 16L in their last 52 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Blackburn at home or Sunderland away?
Blackburn's home record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Blackburn at home: 1.88 PPG; Sunderland away: 1.54 PPG.
Have Blackburn or Sunderland been keeping clean sheets recently?
Blackburn have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Sunderland in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 April 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Apr 2024, when Blackburn won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Blackburn's record when hosting Sunderland specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Blackburn
1
Draws
2
Sunderland
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Blackburn and Sunderland?
From 6 meetings on record, Blackburn have won 3, Sunderland have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Blackburn and Sunderland last play each other?
They last met on 21 April 2025, when Sunderland 0-1 Blackburn.
Who has won more matches between Blackburn and Sunderland?
Blackburn have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Blackburn are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
Sunderland are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Blackburn 46%, Sunderland 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Blackburn) and 50% (Sunderland).
On the defensive side: Blackburn keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Sunderland in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Blackburn home games / Sunderland away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Blackburn play Sunderland?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Blackburn's recent matches and 54% of Sunderland's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Blackburn vs Sunderland usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Blackburn's recent games and 50% of Sunderland's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Blackburn and Sunderland tend to score early?
Blackburn have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Sunderland in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sunderland cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Blackburn.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sunderland beat Blackburn 1-3 at Ewood Park, Regular Season - 7, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Blackburn 1.10 xG and Sunderland 1.29 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Sunderland outscored their 1.29 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Blackburn attack 0.98 / defence 0.99 against Sunderland attack 1.08 / defence 0.82, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Blackburn 31% | Draw 30% | Sunderland 40%, with Sunderland to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Blackburn 46%, Sunderland 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Blackburn's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Sunderland's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Blackburn 1.52 PPG, Sunderland 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sunderland win broke the near-deadlock. Blackburn (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sunderland (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.38 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.