Blackburn 2-0 QPR – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Blackburn at 46% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Blackburn vs QPR encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Championship clash, Regular Season - 7 as Blackburn welcome QPR to Ewood Park. Kick-off is set for Saturday 28 September 2024 at 12:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Blackburn — All Games: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Championship outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: D W D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Blackburn have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Blackburn at Ewood Park this season: 3W 5D 2L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.40 lags behind their overall 1.90 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Ewood Park this season.
Across all Championship games this season, QPR have recorded 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D D W D D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. QPR have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
QPR away from home this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Blackburn at 1.90 PPG versus QPR's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Blackburn register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, QPR in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, Blackburn have won 4, QPR 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Feb 2024, ended 1–2 with QPR winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Blackburn in-play tendencies (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
QPR in-play tendencies (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 63% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Blackburn 60% versus QPR 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Blackburn 64% | QPR 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Blackburn 1.59 xG and QPR 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Blackburn attack 1.210 / defence 1.023 | QPR attack 1.076 / defence 0.955. League average goals — home 1.376 / away 1.088. Data: 52 Blackburn games / 52 QPR games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Blackburn 46% | Draw 25% | QPR 29%. Fair-value odds: Blackburn 2.17 | Draw 4.00 | QPR 3.45. Blackburn hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Blackburn are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Blackburn offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.79 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Blackburn 60% | QPR 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Blackburn vs QPR | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Ewood Park • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Sep 2024, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Blackburn 46% | Draw 25% | QPR 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 56% | xG Blackburn 1.59 / QPR 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Blackburn attack 1.210 / def 1.023 | QPR attack 1.076 / def 0.955 | league avg home 1.376 / away 1.088 • Poisson stance: Blackburn (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Blackburn xG
Expected Goals
1.20
QPR xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Blackburn vs QPR kick off?
Blackburn vs QPR kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 28 September 2024 at Ewood Park.
What was the final score in Blackburn vs QPR?
Blackburn 2 - 0 QPR.
Where is Blackburn vs QPR being played?
The match is being played at Ewood Park.
What competition is Blackburn vs QPR part of?
Blackburn vs QPR is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Blackburn vs QPR?
Our statistical model gives Blackburn a 46% chance of winning, QPR a 29% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Blackburn the favourite.
Will both teams score in Blackburn vs QPR?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Blackburn and QPR will score (BTTS).
Will Blackburn vs QPR have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Blackburn and QPR?
Record (6 meetings): Blackburn 4W | Draws 0 | QPR 2W.
What form are Blackburn and QPR in?
Blackburn (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-D-W-D. QPR (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Blackburn's attacking strength (1.21x league average) is weighed against QPR's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.59. The same calculation in reverse, QPR's attack versus Blackburn's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Blackburn Win
46%
2.15
25%
4.03
29%
3.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Blackburn xG
Total xG
2.79
1.20
QPR xG
2.15
46%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
3.48
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
30%
3.31
20%
4.91
Win to Nil
14%
7.13
6%
17.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 7.4 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 11.7 | 7.0 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.3 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.9 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Blackburn vs QPR?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Blackburn and QPR expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Blackburn and 1.20 for QPR, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Blackburn vs QPR?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Blackburn come into this having played 52 games, going 17W 14D 21L for 1.25 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-W-D. It's still early in the season for Blackburn, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, QPR sit at 1.21 PPG from 52 outings (16W 15D 21L), a run that reads D-D-W-D-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for QPR, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Blackburn on 1.25 PPG, QPR on 1.21. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Blackburn's home form reads 9W 7D 10L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.31 PPG return.
Away from home, QPR have taken 1.31 points per game from 26 outings (9W 7D 10L).
The Goals Picture
Blackburn are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; QPR are on 1.06 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Last 52 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Blackburn
Early Season
QPR
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Blackburn and QPR in coming into this match?
Blackburn have gone 17W 14D 21L in their last 52 games (1.25 PPG), while QPR have gone 16W 15D 21L in their last 52 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Blackburn at home or QPR away?
Blackburn's home record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Blackburn at home: 1.31 PPG; QPR away: 1.31 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Blackburn and QPR runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 Oct 2023, when Blackburn won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Blackburn's record when hosting QPR specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Blackburn
0
Draws
4
QPR
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Blackburn and QPR?
From 10 meetings on record, Blackburn have won 6, QPR have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Blackburn and QPR last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when QPR 1-3 Blackburn.
Who has won more matches between Blackburn and QPR?
Blackburn have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Blackburn are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
QPR are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Blackburn 73%, QPR 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Blackburn) and 42% (QPR).
On the defensive side: QPR in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Blackburn home games / QPR away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Blackburn play QPR?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Blackburn's games and 46% of QPR's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Blackburn vs QPR usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Blackburn's recent games and 42% of QPR's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Blackburn and QPR tend to score early?
Blackburn have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, QPR in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Blackburn cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over QPR.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Blackburn beat QPR 2-0 at Ewood Park, Regular Season - 7, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Blackburn 1.59 xG and QPR 1.20 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. QPR landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Blackburn attack 1.21 / defence 1.02 against QPR attack 1.08 / defence 0.95, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Blackburn 46% | Draw 25% | QPR 29%, with Blackburn to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Blackburn 64%, QPR 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Blackburn's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
QPR's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Blackburn 1.25 PPG, QPR 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Blackburn win broke the near-deadlock. Blackburn (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line. QPR (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.92 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.