Blackburn 1-2 QPR – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Blackburn at 39% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Blackburn vs QPR encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Blackburn welcome QPR to Ewood Park in Championship (matchday 30). Kick-off is Saturday 3 February 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Blackburn — last 10 games: 1W 2D 7L, averaging 0.50 points per game. Last five: L L D L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Blackburn at home: 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Blackburn are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, QPR have recorded 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
QPR away from home: 1W 3D 6L from their last 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Blackburn at 0.50 PPG versus QPR's 0.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The head-to-head sample comes down firmly in favour of Blackburn: 4 wins from 4 H2H matches against 0 for QPR, with 0 draws.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 7 Oct 2023, ended Blackburn 4–0 QPR — a Blackburn win.
The head-to-head data gives Blackburn an edge — 4 wins from 4 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
In-Play Profile
Blackburn in-play tendencies (last 74 games, 36 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
QPR in-play tendencies (last 74 games, 36 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Blackburn 50% versus QPR 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Blackburn 55% | QPR 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Blackburn 1.21 xG and QPR 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Blackburn attack 0.931 / defence 1.258 | QPR attack 0.719 / defence 0.926. League average goals — home 1.405 / away 1.183. QPR's attack rating of 0.719 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.07. Blackburn's defence rating of 1.258 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing QPR's projected output up. Data: built from Blackburn's last 74 games and QPR's last 75.
Result probabilities: Blackburn 39% | Draw 30% | QPR 32%. Fair-value odds: Blackburn 2.59 | Draw 3.36 | QPR 3.16. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Blackburn are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. The head-to-head data (Blackburn 4 wins from 4 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Blackburn offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.28 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 60% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 53%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Blackburn 70% (last 10 home games) | QPR 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Blackburn vs QPR | Competition: Championship, matchday 30 | Venue: Ewood Park • Kick-off: Saturday 3 February 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Blackburn 39% | Draw 30% | QPR 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% (Under 60%) | BTTS Yes 47% (No 53%) | xG Blackburn 1.21 / QPR 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Blackburn attack 0.931 / def 1.258 | QPR attack 0.719 / def 0.926 | league avg home 1.405 / away 1.183 • Poisson stance: Blackburn (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Blackburn xG
Expected Goals
1.07
QPR xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Blackburn vs QPR FAQs
What time does Blackburn vs QPR kick off?
Blackburn vs QPR kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 3 February 2024 at Ewood Park.
What was the final score in Blackburn vs QPR?
Blackburn 1 - 2 QPR.
Where is Blackburn vs QPR being played?
The match is being played at Ewood Park.
What competition is Blackburn vs QPR part of?
Blackburn vs QPR is a Championship fixture (matchday 30) (England).
Who is favourite to win Blackburn vs QPR?
Our statistical model gives Blackburn a 39% chance of winning, QPR a 32% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Blackburn the favourite.
Will both teams score in Blackburn vs QPR?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Blackburn and QPR will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (53%).
Will Blackburn vs QPR have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (60%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Blackburn's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against QPR's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.21. The same calculation in reverse, QPR's attack versus Blackburn's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Blackburn's last 74 games and QPR's last 75 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.9%), 1-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Blackburn Win
39%
2.59
30%
3.36
32%
3.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Blackburn xG
Total xG
2.28
1.07
QPR xG
2.59
39%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
3.16
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
34%
2.92
30%
3.35
Win to Nil
13%
7.55
9%
10.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 10.9 | 5.9 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 13.2 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 8.0 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Blackburn vs QPR Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Blackburn vs QPR?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Blackburn and QPR expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Blackburn and 1.07 for QPR, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Blackburn vs QPR?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Blackburn come into this having played 74 games, going 30W 12D 32L for 1.38 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-L-D.
On the other side, QPR sit at 1.01 PPG from 74 outings (19W 18D 37L), a run that reads D-L-L-W-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Blackburn on 1.38 PPG, QPR on 1.01. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Blackburn's home form reads 17W 6D 13L across their last 36 home games, a 1.58 PPG return.
Away from home, QPR have taken 1.08 points per game from their last 36 away games (10W 9D 17L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Blackburn come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Blackburn are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; QPR are on 0.93 scored and 1.49 conceded.
Last 74 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Blackburn
Current Season
QPR
Current Season
Blackburn (Home) vs QPR (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Blackburn
Current Season
QPR
Current Season
❓ Blackburn vs QPR Form FAQs
What form are Blackburn and QPR in coming into this match?
Blackburn have gone 30W 12D 32L in their last 74 games (1.38 PPG), while QPR have gone 19W 18D 37L in their last 74 (1.01 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Blackburn at home or QPR away?
Blackburn's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Blackburn at home: 1.58 PPG; QPR away: 1.08 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to February 2022. All of them came in Championship. The most recent was as recently as 29 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 7 Oct 2023, when Blackburn won QPR 0-4 Blackburn.
Blackburn's record when hosting QPR specifically: 3W 0D 3L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Blackburn
0
Draws
4
QPR
Recent Meetings
❓ Blackburn vs QPR H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Blackburn and QPR?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Blackburn have won 6, QPR have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Blackburn and QPR last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 29 August 2026: Blackburn 1-2 QPR.
Who has won more matches between Blackburn and QPR?
Blackburn have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Blackburn are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
QPR are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Blackburn 56%, QPR 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Blackburn) and 44% (QPR).
On the defensive side: Blackburn keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; QPR in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Blackburn home games / QPR away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Blackburn vs QPR Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Blackburn and QPR matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Blackburn's recent matches and 44% of QPR's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Blackburn and QPR matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Blackburn's recent games and 44% of QPR's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Blackburn and QPR matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 72% of Blackburn's recent matches and 64% of QPR's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as QPR defy the odds to beat Blackburn 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
QPR beat Blackburn 1-2 at Ewood Park, Regular Season - 30, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Blackburn 1.21 xG and QPR 1.07 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. QPR outscored their 1.07 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Blackburn attack 0.93 / defence 1.26 against QPR attack 0.72 / defence 0.93, drawn from 74/75 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Blackburn 39% | Draw 30% | QPR 32%, with Blackburn to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual QPR win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Blackburn 55%, QPR 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Blackburn's trading profile (74 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
QPR's trading profile (74 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Blackburn 1.38 PPG, QPR 1.01 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the QPR win broke the near-deadlock. Blackburn (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual. QPR (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.92 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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