Blackburn 1-2 Middlesbrough – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Blackburn at 42% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Blackburn vs Middlesbrough encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Championship clash, Regular Season - 25 as Blackburn welcome Middlesbrough to Ewood Park. Kick-off is set for Thursday 29 December 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Championship games this season, Blackburn have gone 6W 0D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Blackburn, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Blackburn at Ewood Park this season: 7W 0D 3L from 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Middlesbrough — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Championship fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Middlesbrough, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Middlesbrough away from home this season: 4W 0D 6L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.80 PPG (Blackburn) versus 2.00 (Middlesbrough). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Blackburn, 0 for Middlesbrough and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Oct 2022, ended 2–1 with Blackburn winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Blackburn in-play and half-time data (70 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Middlesbrough in-play and half-time data (70 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Blackburn 39% versus Middlesbrough 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Blackburn 46% | Middlesbrough 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Blackburn 1.66 xG and Middlesbrough 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Blackburn attack 1.144 / defence 1.034 | Middlesbrough attack 1.194 / defence 1.161. League average goals — home 1.246 / away 1.180. Data: 70 Blackburn games / 70 Middlesbrough games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Blackburn 42% | Draw 24% | Middlesbrough 34%. Fair-value odds: Blackburn 2.38 | Draw 4.17 | Middlesbrough 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.11. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.11 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.66 / 1.46) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Blackburn as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Blackburn offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.11 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Blackburn 50% | Middlesbrough 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Blackburn vs Middlesbrough | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Ewood Park • Kick-off: Thursday 29 Dec 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Blackburn 42% | Draw 24% | Middlesbrough 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 62% | xG Blackburn 1.66 / Middlesbrough 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: Blackburn attack 1.144 / def 1.034 | Middlesbrough attack 1.194 / def 1.161 | league avg home 1.246 / away 1.180 • Poisson stance: Blackburn (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Blackburn xG
Expected Goals
1.46
Middlesbrough xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Blackburn vs Middlesbrough kick off?
Blackburn vs Middlesbrough kicked off at 19:45 on Thursday 29 December 2022 at Ewood Park.
What was the final score in Blackburn vs Middlesbrough?
Blackburn 1 - 2 Middlesbrough.
Where is Blackburn vs Middlesbrough being played?
The match is being played at Ewood Park.
What competition is Blackburn vs Middlesbrough part of?
Blackburn vs Middlesbrough is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Blackburn vs Middlesbrough?
Our statistical model gives Blackburn a 42% chance of winning, Middlesbrough a 34% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Blackburn the favourite.
Will both teams score in Blackburn vs Middlesbrough?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Blackburn and Middlesbrough will score (BTTS).
Will Blackburn vs Middlesbrough have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Blackburn and Middlesbrough?
Record (3 meetings): Blackburn 2W | Draws 1 | Middlesbrough 0W.
What form are Blackburn and Middlesbrough in?
Blackburn (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Middlesbrough (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Blackburn's attacking strength (1.14x league average) is weighed against Middlesbrough's defensive record (1.16x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.66. The same calculation in reverse, Middlesbrough's attack versus Blackburn's defence, projects 1.46 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 70/70 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Blackburn Win
42%
2.36
24%
4.22
34%
2.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 2
7.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Blackburn xG
Total xG
3.11
1.46
Middlesbrough xG
2.36
42%
Home win
4.22
24%
Draw
2.95
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.63
Clean Sheet
23%
4.29
19%
5.23
Win to Nil
10%
10.10
6%
15.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 6.5 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 10.7 | 7.8 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.9 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.9 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Blackburn vs Middlesbrough?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Blackburn and Middlesbrough expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Blackburn and 1.46 for Middlesbrough, a combined total of 3.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Blackburn vs Middlesbrough?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 70 outings, Blackburn have picked up 1.54 PPG on a 32W 12D 26L record — W-L-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Blackburn is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Middlesbrough's form line: 29W 16D 25L from 70 games, 1.47 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-W. The sample for Middlesbrough is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Blackburn on 1.54 PPG, Middlesbrough on 1.47. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Blackburn have posted 1.91 PPG from 34 outings (20W 5D 9L).
On the road, Middlesbrough have gone 10W 8D 16L from 34 away games — 1.12 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Blackburn come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Blackburn are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Middlesbrough are on 1.36 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Last 70 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Blackburn
Blended
Middlesbrough
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Blackburn and Middlesbrough in coming into this match?
Blackburn have gone 32W 12D 26L in their last 70 games (1.54 PPG), while Middlesbrough have gone 29W 16D 25L in their last 70 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Blackburn at home or Middlesbrough away?
Blackburn's home record (1.91 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Blackburn at home: 1.91 PPG; Middlesbrough away: 1.12 PPG.
Have Blackburn or Middlesbrough been keeping clean sheets recently?
Blackburn have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Middlesbrough in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Blackburn's record when hosting Middlesbrough specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Blackburn
4
Draws
2
Middlesbrough
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Blackburn and Middlesbrough?
From 10 meetings on record, Blackburn have won 4, Middlesbrough have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Blackburn and Middlesbrough last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when Blackburn 0-0 Middlesbrough.
Who has won more matches between Blackburn and Middlesbrough?
Blackburn have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Blackburn are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Middlesbrough are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Blackburn 41%, Middlesbrough 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Blackburn) and 53% (Middlesbrough).
On the defensive side: Blackburn keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Middlesbrough in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Blackburn home games / Middlesbrough away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Blackburn play Middlesbrough?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Blackburn's recent matches and 53% of Middlesbrough's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Blackburn vs Middlesbrough usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Blackburn's recent games and 53% of Middlesbrough's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Blackburn and Middlesbrough tend to score early?
Blackburn have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Middlesbrough in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Middlesbrough defy the odds to beat Blackburn 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Middlesbrough beat Blackburn 1-2 at Ewood Park, Regular Season - 25, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Blackburn 1.66 xG and Middlesbrough 1.46 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Blackburn attack 1.14 / defence 1.03 against Middlesbrough attack 1.19 / defence 1.16, drawn from 70/70 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Blackburn 42% | Draw 24% | Middlesbrough 34%, with Blackburn to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Middlesbrough win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Blackburn 46%, Middlesbrough 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Blackburn's trading profile (70 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Middlesbrough's trading profile (70 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Blackburn 1.54 PPG, Middlesbrough 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Middlesbrough win broke the near-deadlock. Blackburn (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.