Birmingham 0-2 Hull City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Birmingham at 51% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Birmingham face Hull City.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
St Andrew's Stadium plays host to Birmingham versus Hull City in Championship (matchday 13). Kick-off: Wednesday 25 October 2023 at 20:45 UK time.
Form
Birmingham (all games): 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L W W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
At home, Birmingham have gone 5W 3D 2L in their last 10 home games (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Hull City have collected 1.40 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: W D L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Hull City have gone 3W 4D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Birmingham against 1.40 for Hull City. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 4 H2H matches in our data, Hull City edge it 2 wins to 1, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.2 per game across the 4 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 30 Dec 2022, ended Birmingham 0–1 Hull City — a Hull City win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.2 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Birmingham half-time and goal-timing data (last 58 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 48% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Hull City half-time and goal-timing data (last 58 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 47% of the time; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Birmingham 47% versus Hull City 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Birmingham 40% | Hull City 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Birmingham 1.65 xG and Hull City 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Birmingham attack 1.176 / defence 0.814 | Hull City attack 1.052 / defence 1.050. League average goals — home 1.335 / away 1.239. Data: built from Birmingham's last 58 games and Hull City's last 58.
Result probabilities: Birmingham 51% | Draw 25% | Hull City 24%. Fair-value odds: Birmingham 1.97 | Draw 3.95 | Hull City 4.16. Birmingham hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Birmingham as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Birmingham if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.71 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging only 1.2 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Birmingham 50% (last 10 home games) | Hull City 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Birmingham vs Hull City | Competition: Championship, matchday 13 | Venue: St Andrew's Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 25 October 2023 at 20:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Birmingham 51% | Draw 25% | Hull City 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% (Under 49%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Birmingham 1.65 / Hull City 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Birmingham attack 1.176 / def 0.814 | Hull City attack 1.052 / def 1.050 | league avg home 1.335 / away 1.239 • Poisson stance: Birmingham (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
Birmingham xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Hull City xG
53%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Birmingham vs Hull City FAQs
What time does Birmingham vs Hull City kick off?
Birmingham vs Hull City kicked off at 20:45 UK time on Wednesday 25 October 2023 at St Andrew's Stadium.
What was the final score in Birmingham vs Hull City?
Birmingham 0 - 2 Hull City.
Where is Birmingham vs Hull City being played?
The match is being played at St Andrew's Stadium.
What competition is Birmingham vs Hull City part of?
Birmingham vs Hull City is a Championship fixture (matchday 13) (England).
Who is favourite to win Birmingham vs Hull City?
Our statistical model gives Birmingham a 51% chance of winning, Hull City a 24% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Birmingham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Birmingham vs Hull City?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Birmingham and Hull City will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Birmingham vs Hull City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Birmingham's attacking strength (1.18x league average) is weighed against Hull City's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.65. Flip it around — Hull City's attack (1.05x) against Birmingham's defence (0.81x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
These ratings are built from Birmingham's last 58 games and Hull City's last 58 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Birmingham Win
51%
1.97
25%
3.95
24%
4.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
Birmingham xG
Total xG
2.71
1.06
Hull City xG
1.97
51%
Home win
3.95
25%
Draw
4.16
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
35%
2.89
19%
5.20
Win to Nil
18%
5.71
5%
21.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 7.1 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 11.6 | 6.2 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.6 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 5.3 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Birmingham vs Hull City Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Birmingham vs Hull City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Birmingham and Hull City expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Birmingham and 1.06 for Hull City, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Birmingham vs Hull City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Birmingham come into this having played 58 games, going 19W 14D 25L for 1.22 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-W-L.
On the other side, Hull City sit at 1.29 PPG from 58 outings (18W 21D 19L), a run that reads W-D-L-D-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.22 PPG for Birmingham against 1.29 for Hull City. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Birmingham's home form reads 11W 8D 10L across their last 29 home games, a 1.41 PPG return.
Away from home, Hull City have taken 1.21 points per game from their last 29 away games (8W 11D 10L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Birmingham are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Hull City are on 1.17 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 58 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Birmingham
Blended
Hull City
Blended
Birmingham (Home) vs Hull City (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Birmingham
Blended
Hull City
Blended
❓ Birmingham vs Hull City Form FAQs
What form are Birmingham and Hull City in coming into this match?
Birmingham have gone 19W 14D 25L in their last 58 games (1.22 PPG), while Hull City have gone 18W 21D 19L in their last 58 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Birmingham at home or Hull City away?
Birmingham's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Birmingham at home: 1.41 PPG; Hull City away: 1.21 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 8 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to November 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Championship. The most recent was on 18 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Birmingham have gone 0W 1D 3L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Hull City — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Birmingham
3
Draws
4
Hull City
Recent Meetings
❓ Birmingham vs Hull City H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Birmingham and Hull City?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Birmingham have won 1, Hull City have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Birmingham and Hull City last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 April 2026: Hull City 1-1 Birmingham.
Who has won more matches between Birmingham and Hull City?
Hull City have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Birmingham see a goal before the break in 48% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Hull City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Birmingham 48%, Hull City 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Birmingham) and 52% (Hull City).
On the defensive side: Birmingham keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Birmingham have failed to score in 31% of games; Hull City in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Birmingham home games / Hull City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Birmingham vs Hull City Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Birmingham and Hull City matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Birmingham's recent matches and 55% of Hull City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Birmingham and Hull City matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Birmingham's recent games and 52% of Hull City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Birmingham and Hull City matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 48% of Birmingham's recent matches and 62% of Hull City's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hull City cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Birmingham.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hull City beat Birmingham 0-2 at St Andrew's Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Birmingham 1.65 xG and Hull City 1.06 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Birmingham fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Hull City outscored their 1.06 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Birmingham attack 1.18 / defence 0.81 against Hull City attack 1.05 / defence 1.05, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Birmingham 51% | Draw 25% | Hull City 24%, with Birmingham to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Hull City win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Birmingham 40%, Hull City 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Birmingham's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Hull City's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Birmingham 1.22 PPG, Hull City 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hull City win broke the near-deadlock. Birmingham (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.97 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Hull City (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.48 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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