Birmingham 1-4 Fulham – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Fulham at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Birmingham vs Fulham fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Fulham make the trip to St Andrew's Trillion Trophy Stadium to face Birmingham in Championship, Regular Season - 7. The match kicks off on Wednesday 15 September 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Birmingham (all games): 3W 2D 1L across 6 Championship fixtures this term — 1.83 PPG. Last five: D L W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.50 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets from 6 games (67%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 17% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Birmingham have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Birmingham at St Andrew's Trillion Trophy Stadium this season: 1W 1D 1L from 3 home games — 1.33 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 3 home games (67%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at St Andrew's Trillion Trophy Stadium. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.33 lags behind their overall 1.83 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at St Andrew's Trillion Trophy Stadium this season.
Fulham have collected 2.17 PPG across 6 Championship outings this season: 4W 1D 1L. Last five: W W W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.17 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.67 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 2 clean sheets from 6 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Fulham have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Championship this season, Fulham have posted 2W 0D 1L from 3 away outings — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.33 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.83 vs 2.17 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading & In-Play
Birmingham — key trading statistics (6 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 17% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Fulham — key trading statistics (6 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures; they lead at the break 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Birmingham 17% | Fulham 50%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Birmingham 17% | Fulham 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Birmingham 0.98 xG and Fulham 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Birmingham attack 0.836 / defence 1.003 | Fulham attack 1.091 / defence 1.124. League average goals — home 1.045 / away 1.226. Data: 6 Birmingham games / 6 Fulham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Birmingham 25% | Draw 32% | Fulham 43%. Fair-value odds: Birmingham 4.00 | Draw 3.12 | Fulham 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fulham are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fulham if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.32 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates corroborate: Birmingham 0% | Fulham 67% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Birmingham vs Fulham | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: St Andrew's Trillion Trophy Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 15 Sep 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Birmingham 25% | Draw 32% | Fulham 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 49% | xG Birmingham 0.98 / Fulham 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Birmingham attack 0.836 / def 1.003 | Fulham attack 1.091 / def 1.124 | league avg home 1.045 / away 1.226 • Poisson stance: Fulham (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
Birmingham xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Fulham xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Birmingham vs Fulham kick off?
Birmingham vs Fulham kicked off at 19:45 on Wednesday 15 September 2021 at St Andrew's Trillion Trophy Stadium.
What was the final score in Birmingham vs Fulham?
Birmingham 1 - 4 Fulham.
Where is Birmingham vs Fulham being played?
The match is being played at St Andrew's Trillion Trophy Stadium.
What competition is Birmingham vs Fulham part of?
Birmingham vs Fulham is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Birmingham vs Fulham?
Our statistical model gives Birmingham a 25% chance of winning, Fulham a 43% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Fulham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Birmingham vs Fulham?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Birmingham and Fulham will score (BTTS).
Will Birmingham vs Fulham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Birmingham and Fulham?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Birmingham and Fulham in?
Birmingham (all comps): 3W-2D-1L in 6 | 1.83 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-L-W-D-W. Fulham (all comps): 4W-1D-1L in 6 | 2.17 PPG | GF 2.17 / GA 0.67 | L5 W-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Birmingham's attack at 0.84x the league average against Fulham's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 0.98 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Fulham's attack (1.09x) against Birmingham's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.34.
These ratings are built from 6/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.5%), 0-1 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fulham Win
25%
4.00
32%
3.09
43%
2.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
9.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
Birmingham xG
Total xG
2.32
1.34
Fulham xG
4.00
25%
Home win
3.09
32%
Draw
2.35
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
26%
3.82
37%
2.67
Win to Nil
7%
15.29
16%
6.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 13.1 | 8.8 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.9 | 8.7 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 6.3 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Birmingham vs Fulham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Birmingham and Fulham expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Birmingham and 1.34 for Fulham, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Birmingham vs Fulham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 6 outings, Birmingham have picked up 1.83 PPG on a 3W 2D 1L record — D-L-W-D-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Birmingham, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Fulham's form line: 4W 1D 1L from 6 games, 2.17 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-L. It's still early in the season for Fulham, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.83 PPG for Birmingham against 2.17 for Fulham. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Birmingham have posted 1.33 PPG from 3 outings (1W 1D 1L). That actually lags their 1.83 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
On the road, Fulham have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 away games — 2.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fulham come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Birmingham are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game recently; Fulham are on 2.17 scored and 0.67 conceded. Fulham's attacking output running into Birmingham's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Birmingham have seen both teams score in 17% of their recent games.
Defensively: Birmingham have kept a clean sheet in 67% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 6 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Birmingham
Early Season
Fulham
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Birmingham and Fulham in coming into this match?
Birmingham have gone 3W 2D 1L in their last 6 games (1.83 PPG), while Fulham have gone 4W 1D 1L in their last 6 (2.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Birmingham at home or Fulham away?
Fulham's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Birmingham at home: 1.33 PPG; Fulham away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Birmingham or Fulham been keeping clean sheets recently?
Birmingham have kept a clean sheet in 67% of their recent games, Fulham in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 January 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Birmingham
0
Draws
2
Fulham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Birmingham and Fulham?
From 2 meetings on record, Birmingham have won 0, Fulham have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Birmingham and Fulham last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2022, when Fulham 6-2 Birmingham.
Who has won more matches between Birmingham and Fulham?
Fulham have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Birmingham see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Fulham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 0% (Birmingham) and 67% (Fulham) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Birmingham and 67% for Fulham.
On the defensive side: Birmingham keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Birmingham have failed to score in 67% of games; Fulham in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Birmingham home games / Fulham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Birmingham play Fulham?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Birmingham's recent matches and 67% of Fulham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Birmingham vs Fulham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Birmingham's recent games and 67% of Fulham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Birmingham and Fulham tend to score early?
Birmingham have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, Fulham in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Fulham run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Birmingham.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fulham beat Birmingham 1-4 at St Andrew's Trillion Trophy Stadium, Regular Season - 7, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Birmingham 0.98 xG and Fulham 1.34 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Fulham outscored their 1.34 projection by 2.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Birmingham attack 0.84 / defence 1.00 against Fulham attack 1.09 / defence 1.12, drawn from 6/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Birmingham 25% | Draw 32% | Fulham 43%, with Fulham to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Birmingham 17%, Fulham 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 33%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Birmingham's trading profile (6 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 17% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time, and conceded here.
Fulham's trading profile (6 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Birmingham 1.83 PPG, Fulham 2.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fulham win broke the near-deadlock. Birmingham (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 0.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Fulham (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.33 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.