Birmingham 0-1 Cardiff – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Birmingham at 42%, yet in-form Cardiff provide a compelling counter-argument — this Birmingham vs Cardiff fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Championship encounter, Regular Season - 42 sees Cardiff travel to St. Andrew's @ Knighthead Park to take on Birmingham. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 10 April 2024, 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Birmingham — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Championship outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Birmingham's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 games at St. Andrew's @ Knighthead Park this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Across all Championship games this season, Cardiff have recorded 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Cardiff have gone 5W 0D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Cardiff are 0.90 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 0.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Birmingham, 2 for Cardiff and 2 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Dec 2023, ended 1–0 with Birmingham winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Birmingham in-play and half-time data (87 games, 43 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Cardiff in-play and half-time data (87 games, 43 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Birmingham 49% versus Cardiff 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Birmingham 45% | Cardiff 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Birmingham 1.33 xG and Cardiff 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Birmingham attack 0.924 / defence 1.043 | Cardiff attack 0.895 / defence 1.081. League average goals — home 1.329 / away 1.192. Data: 87 Birmingham games / 87 Cardiff games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Birmingham 42% | Draw 27% | Cardiff 31%. Fair-value odds: Birmingham 2.38 | Draw 3.70 | Cardiff 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Birmingham are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Cardiff (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Birmingham offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.44 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Birmingham 50% | Cardiff 50%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Birmingham vs Cardiff | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 42 | Venue: St. Andrew's @ Knighthead Park • Kick-off: Wednesday 10 Apr 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Birmingham 42% | Draw 27% | Cardiff 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Birmingham 1.33 / Cardiff 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Birmingham attack 0.924 / def 1.043 | Cardiff attack 0.895 / def 1.081 | league avg home 1.329 / away 1.192 • Poisson stance: Birmingham (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Birmingham xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Cardiff xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Birmingham vs Cardiff kick off?
Birmingham vs Cardiff kicked off at 19:45 on Wednesday 10 April 2024 at St. Andrew's @ Knighthead Park.
What was the final score in Birmingham vs Cardiff?
Birmingham 0 - 1 Cardiff.
Where is Birmingham vs Cardiff being played?
The match is being played at St. Andrew's @ Knighthead Park.
What competition is Birmingham vs Cardiff part of?
Birmingham vs Cardiff is a Regular Season - 42 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Birmingham vs Cardiff?
Our statistical model gives Birmingham a 42% chance of winning, Cardiff a 31% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Birmingham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Birmingham vs Cardiff?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Birmingham and Cardiff will score (BTTS).
Will Birmingham vs Cardiff have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Birmingham and Cardiff?
Record (5 meetings): Birmingham 1W | Draws 2 | Cardiff 2W.
What form are Birmingham and Cardiff in?
Birmingham (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Cardiff (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Birmingham's attack at 0.92x the league average against Cardiff's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 1.33 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Cardiff's attack versus Birmingham's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 87/87 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.4%), 1-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Birmingham Win
42%
2.41
27%
3.68
31%
3.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Birmingham xG
Total xG
2.44
1.11
Cardiff xG
2.41
42%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
3.20
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
33%
3.04
27%
3.77
Win to Nil
14%
7.31
8%
12.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 9.7 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 12.9 | 7.2 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 8.5 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.8 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Birmingham vs Cardiff?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Birmingham and Cardiff expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Birmingham and 1.11 for Cardiff, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Birmingham vs Cardiff?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Birmingham's recent record stands at 25W 20D 42L from 87 games, a 1.09 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-L in the last five.
Cardiff, meanwhile, have gone 30W 15D 42L across 87 games — 1.21 PPG, with W-L-L-W-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Birmingham on 1.09 PPG, Cardiff on 1.21. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Birmingham have managed 15W 12D 16L from 43 games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cardiff's away record stands at 15W 5D 23L across 43 trips, a 1.16 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Birmingham are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Cardiff are on 1.00 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Last 87 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Birmingham
Current Season
Cardiff
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Birmingham and Cardiff in coming into this match?
Birmingham have gone 25W 20D 42L in their last 87 games (1.09 PPG), while Cardiff have gone 30W 15D 42L in their last 87 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Birmingham at home or Cardiff away?
Birmingham's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Birmingham at home: 1.33 PPG; Cardiff away: 1.16 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Birmingham and Cardiff runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Birmingham's record when hosting Cardiff specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Birmingham
2
Draws
3
Cardiff
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Birmingham and Cardiff?
From 6 meetings on record, Birmingham have won 1, Cardiff have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Birmingham and Cardiff last play each other?
They last met on 10 April 2024, when Birmingham 0-1 Cardiff.
Who has won more matches between Birmingham and Cardiff?
Cardiff have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Birmingham see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Cardiff are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Birmingham 49%, Cardiff 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Birmingham) and 49% (Cardiff).
On the defensive side: Birmingham keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Birmingham have failed to score in 33% of games; Cardiff in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Birmingham home games / Cardiff away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Birmingham play Cardiff?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 49% of Birmingham's recent matches and 40% of Cardiff's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Birmingham vs Cardiff usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Birmingham's recent games and 49% of Cardiff's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Birmingham and Cardiff tend to score early?
Birmingham have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Cardiff in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Cardiff defy the odds to beat Birmingham 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cardiff beat Birmingham 0-1 at St. Andrew's @ Knighthead Park, Regular Season - 42, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Birmingham 1.33 xG and Cardiff 1.11 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Birmingham fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Birmingham attack 0.92 / defence 1.04 against Cardiff attack 0.90 / defence 1.08, drawn from 87/87 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Birmingham 42% | Draw 27% | Cardiff 31%, with Birmingham to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Cardiff win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Birmingham 45%, Cardiff 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Birmingham's trading profile (87 games, 43 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Cardiff's trading profile (87 games, 43 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Birmingham 1.09 PPG, Cardiff 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cardiff win broke the near-deadlock. Birmingham (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward. Cardiff (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.49 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.