Zlin 1-0 Vyškov – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Zlin at 62%, yet other data sources diverge — this Zlin vs Vyškov fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Zlin and Vyškov meet at Stadion Letná in Czech Liga, Relegation Round. This fixture gets under way on Thursday 1 June 2023 at 16:30 UTC.
Form
Zlin (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Czech Liga fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L W W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Zlin's home record at Stadion Letná: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Czech Liga appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zlin 2.28 xG and Vyškov 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zlin attack 1.190 / defence 1.089 | Vyškov attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.668 / away 1.251. Data: 60 Zlin games / 0 Vyškov games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zlin 62% | Draw 21% | Vyškov 17%. Fair-value odds: Zlin 1.61 | Draw 4.76 | Vyškov 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Zlin (62%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.44. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.44 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (2.28 / 1.16) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Zlin are the pick at 62% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.44 combined xG gives a 67% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zlin vs Vyškov | Competition: Czech Liga, Relegation Round | Venue: Stadion Letná • Kick-off: Thursday 1 Jun 2023, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zlin 62% | Draw 21% | Vyškov 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 63% | xG Zlin 2.28 / Vyškov 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Zlin attack 1.190 / def 1.089 | Vyškov attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.668 / away 1.251 • Poisson stance: Zlin (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.28
Zlin xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Vyškov xG
63%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zlin vs Vyškov kick off?
Zlin vs Vyškov kicked off at 16:30 on Thursday 1 June 2023 at Stadion Letná.
What was the final score in Zlin vs Vyškov?
Zlin 1 - 0 Vyškov.
Where is Zlin vs Vyškov being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Letná.
What competition is Zlin vs Vyškov part of?
Zlin vs Vyškov is a Relegation Round fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Zlin vs Vyškov?
Our statistical model gives Zlin a 62% chance of winning, Vyškov a 17% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Zlin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zlin vs Vyškov?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Zlin and Vyškov will score (BTTS).
Will Zlin vs Vyškov have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zlin and Vyškov?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Zlin and Vyškov in?
Zlin (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-W-W-D. Zlin home split: 1.50 PPG from 10 | GF 1.90 / GA 1.60 | CS 0.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Zlin's attacking strength (1.19x league average) is weighed against Vyškov's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.28. Flip it around — Vyškov's attack (0.85x) against Zlin's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
These ratings are built from 60/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 9.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Zlin Win
62%
1.62
21%
4.71
17%
5.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.5%
Draw
2 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.28
Zlin xG
Total xG
3.44
1.16
Vyškov xG
1.62
62%
Home win
4.71
21%
Draw
5.83
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.60
37%
BTTS No
2.67
Clean Sheet
31%
3.18
10%
9.80
Win to Nil
19%
5.17
2%
57.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 3.7 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 8.5 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.7 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.4 | 7.4 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.6 | 4.2 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zlin vs Vyškov?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are Zlin and Vyškov expected to score?
The model projects 2.28 expected goals for Zlin and 1.16 for Vyškov, a combined total of 3.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Zlin vs Vyškov?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zlin
Pre-Season
Vyškov
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since June 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 June 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Zlin
1
Draws
0
Vyškov
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zlin and Vyškov?
From 2 meetings on record, Zlin have won 1, Vyškov have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Zlin and Vyškov last play each other?
They last met on 4 June 2023, when Vyškov 0-0 Zlin.
Who has won more matches between Zlin and Vyškov?
Zlin have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zlin home games / Vyškov away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Zlin edge out Vyškov 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zlin beat Vyškov 1-0 at Stadion Letná, Relegation Round, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zlin 2.28 xG and Vyškov 1.16 xG, a combined 3.44. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Zlin fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Vyškov landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zlin attack 1.19 / defence 1.09 against Vyškov attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 60/0 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zlin 62% | Draw 21% | Vyškov 17%, with Zlin to win its most likely call at 62%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 87% and missed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.