Zlin 3-2 Sigma Olomouc – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Zlin at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Zlin vs Sigma Olomouc fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Czech Liga encounter, Regular Season - 27 sees Sigma Olomouc travel to Stadion Letná to take on Zlin. The game is scheduled for Saturday 6 April 2024, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Zlin stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L D D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Zlin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Zlin's home record at Stadion Letná: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Czech Liga appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Sigma Olomouc have recorded 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L D W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sigma Olomouc, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sigma Olomouc away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.10 exceeds their overall 0.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Zlin at 0.90 PPG versus Sigma Olomouc's 0.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
Sigma Olomouc have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 3 of the last 5 encounters against Zlin's 0 victories.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Oct 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
It is worth noting that Sigma Olomouc have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 5 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Patterns
Zlin in-play and half-time data (61 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Sigma Olomouc in-play and half-time data (61 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Zlin 64% and Sigma Olomouc 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zlin 61% | Sigma Olomouc 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zlin 1.67 xG and Sigma Olomouc 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zlin attack 1.054 / defence 1.158 | Sigma Olomouc attack 0.905 / defence 1.015. League average goals — home 1.564 / away 1.240. Data: 56 Zlin games / 56 Sigma Olomouc games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zlin 46% | Draw 25% | Sigma Olomouc 29%. Fair-value odds: Zlin 2.17 | Draw 4.00 | Sigma Olomouc 3.45. Zlin hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.97. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.97 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Zlin as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Zlin offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.97 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: Zlin 80% | Sigma Olomouc 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zlin vs Sigma Olomouc | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Stadion Letná • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Apr 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zlin 46% | Draw 25% | Sigma Olomouc 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 59% | xG Zlin 1.67 / Sigma Olomouc 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Zlin attack 1.054 / def 1.158 | Sigma Olomouc attack 0.905 / def 1.015 | league avg home 1.564 / away 1.240 • Poisson stance: Zlin (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
Zlin xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Sigma Olomouc xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zlin vs Sigma Olomouc kick off?
Zlin vs Sigma Olomouc kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 6 April 2024 at Stadion Letná.
What was the final score in Zlin vs Sigma Olomouc?
Zlin 3 - 2 Sigma Olomouc.
Where is Zlin vs Sigma Olomouc being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Letná.
What competition is Zlin vs Sigma Olomouc part of?
Zlin vs Sigma Olomouc is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Zlin vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our statistical model gives Zlin a 46% chance of winning, Sigma Olomouc a 29% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Zlin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zlin vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Zlin and Sigma Olomouc will score (BTTS).
Will Zlin vs Sigma Olomouc have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zlin and Sigma Olomouc?
Record (5 meetings): Zlin 0W | Draws 2 | Sigma Olomouc 3W.
What form are Zlin and Sigma Olomouc in?
Zlin (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-D-D-L. Sigma Olomouc (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Zlin's attack at 1.05x the league average against Sigma Olomouc's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.67 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sigma Olomouc's attack versus Zlin's defence, projects 1.30 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Zlin Win
46%
2.18
25%
4.04
29%
3.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
Zlin xG
Total xG
2.97
1.30
Sigma Olomouc xG
2.18
46%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
3.40
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.68
41%
BTTS No
2.47
Clean Sheet
27%
3.67
19%
5.32
Win to Nil
12%
8.01
6%
18.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 6.7 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 11.1 | 7.2 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.3 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 5.2 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zlin vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Zlin and Sigma Olomouc expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Zlin and 1.30 for Sigma Olomouc, a combined total of 2.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Zlin vs Sigma Olomouc?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 61 outings, Zlin have picked up 0.93 PPG on a 12W 21D 28L record — L-L-D-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Zlin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sigma Olomouc's form line: 21W 18D 22L from 61 games, 1.33 PPG, last five L-D-W-L-L. The sample for Sigma Olomouc is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Sigma Olomouc are the form team by 0.40 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Zlin.
Venue Form
On home soil, Zlin have posted 1.34 PPG from 29 outings (10W 9D 10L). That's noticeably better than their 0.93 PPG overall — Zlin are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Sigma Olomouc have gone 10W 9D 10L from 29 away games — 1.34 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Zlin are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.85 conceded per game recently; Sigma Olomouc are on 1.43 scored and 1.36 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Zlin have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 61 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zlin
Blended
Sigma Olomouc
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zlin and Sigma Olomouc in coming into this match?
Zlin have gone 12W 21D 28L in their last 61 games (0.93 PPG), while Sigma Olomouc have gone 21W 18D 22L in their last 61 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zlin at home or Sigma Olomouc away?
Zlin's home record (1.34 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zlin at home: 1.34 PPG; Sigma Olomouc away: 1.34 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 14 December 2025, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Dec 2025, when Zlin won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Zlin's record when hosting Sigma Olomouc specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Zlin
2
Draws
4
Sigma Olomouc
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zlin and Sigma Olomouc?
From 8 meetings on record, Zlin have won 2, Sigma Olomouc have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Zlin and Sigma Olomouc last play each other?
They last met on 14 December 2025, when Zlin 5-0 Sigma Olomouc.
Who has won more matches between Zlin and Sigma Olomouc?
Sigma Olomouc have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Zlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Sigma Olomouc are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Zlin at 72%, Sigma Olomouc at 59%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Zlin) and 48% (Sigma Olomouc). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 28% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zlin home games / Sigma Olomouc away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zlin play Sigma Olomouc?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 72% of Zlin's games and 59% of Sigma Olomouc's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Zlin vs Sigma Olomouc usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Zlin's matches and 48% of Sigma Olomouc's.
Do Zlin and Sigma Olomouc tend to score early?
Zlin have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Sigma Olomouc in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Zlin edge out Sigma Olomouc 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zlin beat Sigma Olomouc 3-2 at Stadion Letná, Regular Season - 27, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zlin 1.67 xG and Sigma Olomouc 1.30 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Zlin beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zlin attack 1.05 / defence 1.16 against Sigma Olomouc attack 0.91 / defence 1.01, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zlin 46% | Draw 25% | Sigma Olomouc 29%, with Zlin to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zlin 61%, Sigma Olomouc 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zlin's trading profile (61 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (61 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Sigma Olomouc arrived the stronger side — 1.33 PPG against 0.93. Form was overturned, with Zlin winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Zlin (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.66 average — above their attacking norm. Sigma Olomouc (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.31 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.