Zlin 1-2 Mlada Boleslav – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Zlin at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Zlin vs Mlada Boleslav fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Zlin host Mlada Boleslav at Stadion Letná in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 17 April 2022 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Zlin — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Czech Liga outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: L L W D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Zlin's home record at Stadion Letná: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Czech Liga appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Zlin are significantly better at Stadion Letná than their overall form suggests.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Mlada Boleslav have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D L D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.70. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Mlada Boleslav's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Czech Liga this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Zlin at 1.20 PPG versus Mlada Boleslav's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Zlin, 1 for Mlada Boleslav and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 20 Nov 2021, ended 0–1 with Mlada Boleslav winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Zlin in-play tendencies (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Mlada Boleslav in-play tendencies (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zlin 57% versus Mlada Boleslav 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zlin 57% | Mlada Boleslav 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zlin 1.68 xG and Mlada Boleslav 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zlin attack 1.156 / defence 1.190 | Mlada Boleslav attack 0.904 / defence 1.332. League average goals — home 1.089 / away 1.126. Mlada Boleslav bring a strong defensive rating of 1.332 — this is suppressing Zlin's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 28 Zlin games / 28 Mlada Boleslav games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zlin 48% | Draw 25% | Mlada Boleslav 27%. Fair-value odds: Zlin 2.08 | Draw 4.00 | Mlada Boleslav 3.70. Zlin hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Zlin are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Zlin offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.89 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Zlin 60% | Mlada Boleslav 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zlin vs Mlada Boleslav | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Stadion Letná • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Apr 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zlin 48% | Draw 25% | Mlada Boleslav 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 57% | xG Zlin 1.68 / Mlada Boleslav 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Zlin attack 1.156 / def 1.190 | Mlada Boleslav attack 0.904 / def 1.332 | league avg home 1.089 / away 1.126 • Poisson stance: Zlin (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
Zlin xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Mlada Boleslav xG
57%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zlin vs Mlada Boleslav kick off?
Zlin vs Mlada Boleslav kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 17 April 2022 at Stadion Letná.
What was the final score in Zlin vs Mlada Boleslav?
Zlin 1 - 2 Mlada Boleslav.
Where is Zlin vs Mlada Boleslav being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Letná.
What competition is Zlin vs Mlada Boleslav part of?
Zlin vs Mlada Boleslav is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Zlin vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our statistical model gives Zlin a 48% chance of winning, Mlada Boleslav a 27% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Zlin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zlin vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Zlin and Mlada Boleslav will score (BTTS).
Will Zlin vs Mlada Boleslav have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zlin and Mlada Boleslav?
Record (1 meetings): Zlin 0W | Draws 0 | Mlada Boleslav 1W.
What form are Zlin and Mlada Boleslav in?
Zlin (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-D-D. Mlada Boleslav (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Zlin's attack at 1.16x the league average against Mlada Boleslav's defence at 1.33x — combine the two and it projects 1.68 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Mlada Boleslav's attack versus Zlin's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 28/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Zlin Win
48%
2.09
25%
4.04
27%
3.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
Zlin xG
Total xG
2.89
1.21
Mlada Boleslav xG
2.09
48%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
3.66
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
30%
3.36
19%
5.34
Win to Nil
14%
7.02
5%
19.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 6.7 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 11.3 | 6.9 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.5 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.3 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zlin vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Zlin and Mlada Boleslav expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Zlin and 1.21 for Mlada Boleslav, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Zlin vs Mlada Boleslav?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 28 outings, Zlin have picked up 1.07 PPG on a 8W 6D 14L record — L-L-W-D-D across the most recent five.
Mlada Boleslav's form line: 10W 5D 13L from 28 games, 1.25 PPG, last five W-D-L-D-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Zlin on 1.07 PPG, Mlada Boleslav on 1.25. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Zlin have posted 1.43 PPG from 14 outings (6W 2D 6L).
On the road, Mlada Boleslav have gone 3W 3D 8L from 14 away games — 0.86 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Zlin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Zlin are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; Mlada Boleslav are on 1.54 scored and 1.61 conceded.
Last 28 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zlin
Current Season
Mlada Boleslav
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zlin and Mlada Boleslav in coming into this match?
Zlin have gone 8W 6D 14L in their last 28 games (1.07 PPG), while Mlada Boleslav have gone 10W 5D 13L in their last 28 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zlin at home or Mlada Boleslav away?
Zlin's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zlin at home: 1.43 PPG; Mlada Boleslav away: 0.86 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Zlin and Mlada Boleslav runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Oct 2023, when Mlada Boleslav won 5-9 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Zlin's record when hosting Mlada Boleslav specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
1
Zlin
3
Draws
5
Mlada Boleslav
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zlin and Mlada Boleslav?
From 9 meetings on record, Zlin have won 1, Mlada Boleslav have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Zlin and Mlada Boleslav last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Mlada Boleslav 1-1 Zlin.
Who has won more matches between Zlin and Mlada Boleslav?
Mlada Boleslav have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Zlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Mlada Boleslav are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zlin 57%, Mlada Boleslav 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Zlin) and 50% (Mlada Boleslav). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 14% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Zlin keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zlin home games / Mlada Boleslav away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zlin play Mlada Boleslav?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Zlin's games and 57% of Mlada Boleslav's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Zlin vs Mlada Boleslav usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Zlin's matches and 50% of Mlada Boleslav's.
Do Zlin and Mlada Boleslav tend to score early?
Zlin have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Mlada Boleslav in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Mlada Boleslav defy the odds to beat Zlin 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mlada Boleslav beat Zlin 1-2 at Stadion Letná, Regular Season - 29, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zlin 1.68 xG and Mlada Boleslav 1.21 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zlin attack 1.16 / defence 1.19 against Mlada Boleslav attack 0.90 / defence 1.33, drawn from 28/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zlin 48% | Draw 25% | Mlada Boleslav 27%, with Zlin to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual Mlada Boleslav win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zlin 57%, Mlada Boleslav 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zlin's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Mlada Boleslav's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Zlin 1.07 PPG, Mlada Boleslav 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mlada Boleslav win broke the near-deadlock. Mlada Boleslav (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.93 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.