Zlin 0-0 FK Jablonec – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Zlin at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Zlin vs FK Jablonec fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Czech Liga clash, Regular Season - 14 as Zlin welcome FK Jablonec to Stadion Letná. Kick-off is set for Sunday 7 November 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Zlin have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L L L D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Zlin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Zlin at Stadion Letná this season: 2W 0D 5L from 7 home games — 0.86 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 2.29 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
FK Jablonec — All Games: 1W 5D 4L from 10 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for FK Jablonec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FK Jablonec's form when playing away from home: 0W 2D 4L across 6 road games this term (0.33 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.67 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Zlin) versus 0.80 (FK Jablonec). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Trading Patterns
Zlin in-play and half-time data (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
FK Jablonec in-play and half-time data (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 31% of cases; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zlin 54% versus FK Jablonec 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zlin 69% | FK Jablonec 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zlin 2.00 xG and FK Jablonec 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zlin attack 0.945 / defence 1.568 | FK Jablonec attack 0.655 / defence 1.606. League average goals — home 1.321 / away 1.250. FK Jablonec bring a strong defensive rating of 1.606 — this is suppressing Zlin's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 13 Zlin games / 13 FK Jablonec games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zlin 54% | Draw 22% | FK Jablonec 24%. Fair-value odds: Zlin 1.85 | Draw 4.55 | FK Jablonec 4.17. Zlin hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.29. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.29 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (2.00 / 1.28) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Zlin at 54% — moderate model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Zlin offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.29 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Zlin 57% | FK Jablonec 33%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zlin vs FK Jablonec | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stadion Letná • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Nov 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zlin 54% | Draw 22% | FK Jablonec 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 63% | xG Zlin 2.00 / FK Jablonec 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Zlin attack 0.945 / def 1.568 | FK Jablonec attack 0.655 / def 1.606 | league avg home 1.321 / away 1.250 • Poisson stance: Zlin (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.00
Zlin xG
Expected Goals
1.28
FK Jablonec xG
63%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zlin vs FK Jablonec kick off?
Zlin vs FK Jablonec kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 7 November 2021 at Stadion Letná.
What was the final score in Zlin vs FK Jablonec?
Zlin 0 - 0 FK Jablonec.
Where is Zlin vs FK Jablonec being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Letná.
What competition is Zlin vs FK Jablonec part of?
Zlin vs FK Jablonec is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Zlin vs FK Jablonec?
Our statistical model gives Zlin a 54% chance of winning, FK Jablonec a 24% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Zlin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zlin vs FK Jablonec?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Zlin and FK Jablonec will score (BTTS).
Will Zlin vs FK Jablonec have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zlin and FK Jablonec?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Zlin and FK Jablonec in?
Zlin (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-L-D-W. FK Jablonec (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Zlin's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against FK Jablonec's defensive record (1.61x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.00. The same calculation in reverse, FK Jablonec's attack versus Zlin's defence, projects 1.28 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Zlin Win
54%
1.85
22%
4.63
24%
4.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
7.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.00
Zlin xG
Total xG
3.29
1.28
FK Jablonec xG
1.85
54%
Home win
4.63
22%
Draw
4.12
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.60
37%
BTTS No
2.67
Clean Sheet
28%
3.61
13%
7.43
Win to Nil
15%
6.67
3%
30.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 4.8 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 9.6 | 6.2 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.6 | 6.2 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 6.4 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 3.2 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zlin vs FK Jablonec?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Zlin and FK Jablonec expected to score?
The model projects 2.00 expected goals for Zlin and 1.28 for FK Jablonec, a combined total of 3.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Zlin vs FK Jablonec?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Zlin's recent record stands at 4W 1D 8L from 13 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-W in the last five. The sample for Zlin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FK Jablonec, meanwhile, have gone 2W 6D 5L across 13 games — 0.92 PPG, with L-D-D-L-D in their last five. The sample for FK Jablonec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Zlin on 1.00 PPG, FK Jablonec on 0.92. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Zlin have managed 2W 0D 4L from 6 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FK Jablonec's away record stands at 0W 2D 4L across 6 trips, a 0.33 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.92 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of FK Jablonec's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Zlin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Zlin are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 2.15 conceded per game recently; FK Jablonec are on 0.85 scored and 1.77 conceded.
Last 13 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zlin
Blended
FK Jablonec
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zlin and FK Jablonec in coming into this match?
Zlin have gone 4W 1D 8L in their last 13 games (1.00 PPG), while FK Jablonec have gone 2W 6D 5L in their last 13 (0.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zlin at home or FK Jablonec away?
Zlin's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zlin at home: 1.00 PPG; FK Jablonec away: 0.33 PPG.
Have Zlin or FK Jablonec been keeping clean sheets recently?
Zlin have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, FK Jablonec in 15%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Apr 2026, when FK Jablonec won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Zlin's record when hosting FK Jablonec specifically: 0W 4D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Zlin
7
Draws
2
FK Jablonec
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zlin and FK Jablonec?
From 10 meetings on record, Zlin have won 1, FK Jablonec have won 2, and 7 have been drawn.
When did Zlin and FK Jablonec last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when Zlin 0-3 FK Jablonec.
Who has won more matches between Zlin and FK Jablonec?
FK Jablonec have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Zlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
FK Jablonec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zlin 67%, FK Jablonec 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 83% for Zlin and 67% for FK Jablonec. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Zlin keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; FK Jablonec in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zlin home games / FK Jablonec away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zlin play FK Jablonec?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Zlin's recent matches and 33% of FK Jablonec's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Zlin vs FK Jablonec usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 83% of Zlin's matches and 67% of FK Jablonec's.
Do Zlin and FK Jablonec tend to score early?
Zlin have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, FK Jablonec in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Zlin's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zlin and FK Jablonec finished level at 0-0 at Stadion Letná, Regular Season - 14, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zlin 2.00 xG and FK Jablonec 1.28 xG, a combined 3.29. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Zlin fell 2.0 short of their projected output. FK Jablonec landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zlin attack 0.94 / defence 1.57 against FK Jablonec attack 0.66 / defence 1.61, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zlin 54% | Draw 22% | FK Jablonec 24%, with Zlin to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zlin 69%, FK Jablonec 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zlin's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
FK Jablonec's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Zlin 1.00 PPG, FK Jablonec 0.92 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Zlin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.83 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.50 average — tighter than their form line. FK Jablonec (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.