Zlin 4-1 Bohemians 1905 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Zlin at 38%, yet in-form Bohemians 1905 provide a compelling counter-argument — this Zlin vs Bohemians 1905 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Czech Liga encounter, Regular Season - 29 sees Bohemians 1905 travel to Stadion Letná to take on Zlin. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 26 April 2023, 16:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Zlin stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Stadion Letná, Zlin have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Bohemians 1905 have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W D W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Bohemians 1905 away from home this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Bohemians 1905 are 0.90 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Zlin register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Bohemians 1905 in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The previous 3 encounters between these sides heavily favour Bohemians 1905, who boast 3 victories compared to 0 for Zlin.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.7 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 5 Nov 2022, ended 2–3 with Bohemians 1905 winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Bohemians 1905 have won 3 of 3 previous encounters, and at 3.7 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Zlin trading profile (63 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Bohemians 1905 trading profile (63 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Zlin 62% and Bohemians 1905 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zlin 64% | Bohemians 1905 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zlin 1.67 xG and Bohemians 1905 1.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zlin attack 1.065 / defence 1.175 | Bohemians 1905 attack 1.169 / defence 0.942. League average goals — home 1.666 / away 1.215. Data: 58 Zlin games / 58 Bohemians 1905 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zlin 38% | Draw 24% | Bohemians 1905 38%. Fair-value odds: Zlin 2.63 | Draw 4.17 | Bohemians 1905 2.63. The draw (24%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.34. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.34 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.67 / 1.67) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 24% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 38% and away win at 38% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 3.34 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 65% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 66%. Form rates corroborate: Zlin 60% | Bohemians 1905 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zlin vs Bohemians 1905 | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Stadion Letná • Kick-off: Wednesday 26 Apr 2023, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zlin 38% | Draw 24% | Bohemians 1905 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 66% | xG Zlin 1.67 / Bohemians 1905 1.67 • Poisson strength factors: Zlin attack 1.065 / def 1.175 | Bohemians 1905 attack 1.169 / def 0.942 | league avg home 1.666 / away 1.215 • Poisson stance: Draw (24%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
Zlin xG
Expected Goals
1.67
Bohemians 1905 xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zlin vs Bohemians 1905 kick off?
Zlin vs Bohemians 1905 kicked off at 16:30 on Wednesday 26 April 2023 at Stadion Letná.
What was the final score in Zlin vs Bohemians 1905?
Zlin 4 - 1 Bohemians 1905.
Where is Zlin vs Bohemians 1905 being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Letná.
What competition is Zlin vs Bohemians 1905 part of?
Zlin vs Bohemians 1905 is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Zlin vs Bohemians 1905?
Our statistical model gives Zlin a 38% chance of winning, Bohemians 1905 a 38% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Zlin vs Bohemians 1905?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Zlin and Bohemians 1905 will score (BTTS).
Will Zlin vs Bohemians 1905 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zlin and Bohemians 1905?
Record (3 meetings): Zlin 0W | Draws 0 | Bohemians 1905 3W.
What form are Zlin and Bohemians 1905 in?
Zlin (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Bohemians 1905 (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Zlin's attack at 1.06x the league average against Bohemians 1905's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.67 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bohemians 1905's attack versus Zlin's defence, projects 1.67 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.3%), 1-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Zlin Win
38%
2.62
24%
4.19
38%
2.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
1 – 2
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
Zlin xG
Total xG
3.34
1.67
Bohemians 1905 xG
2.62
38%
Home win
4.19
24%
Draw
2.63
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.98
Clean Sheet
19%
5.31
19%
5.32
Win to Nil
7%
13.91
7%
14.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 5.9 | 4.9 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 9.9 | 8.2 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 8.3 | 6.9 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.6 | 3.8 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zlin vs Bohemians 1905?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Zlin and Bohemians 1905 expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Zlin and 1.67 for Bohemians 1905, a combined total of 3.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Zlin vs Bohemians 1905?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Zlin come into this having played 63 games, going 13W 19D 31L for 0.92 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-L.
On the other side, Bohemians 1905 sit at 1.33 PPG from 63 outings (23W 15D 25L), a run that reads W-W-D-W-L across their last five.
Bohemians 1905 carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.41 PPG clear of Zlin — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Zlin's home form reads 11W 7D 14L across 32 games on their own ground, a 1.25 PPG return.
Away from home, Bohemians 1905 have taken 1.25 points per game from 32 outings (11W 7D 14L).
Goals in Recent Form
Zlin are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.79 conceded per game recently; Bohemians 1905 are on 1.49 scored and 1.62 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Zlin have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 63 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zlin
Current Season
Bohemians 1905
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zlin and Bohemians 1905 in coming into this match?
Zlin have gone 13W 19D 31L in their last 63 games (0.92 PPG), while Bohemians 1905 have gone 23W 15D 25L in their last 63 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zlin at home or Bohemians 1905 away?
Zlin's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zlin at home: 1.25 PPG; Bohemians 1905 away: 1.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to February 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 8 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Bohemians 1905 have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 May 2022, when Bohemians 1905 won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Zlin's record when hosting Bohemians 1905 specifically: 1W 1D 4L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Zlin
2
Draws
7
Bohemians 1905
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zlin and Bohemians 1905?
From 10 meetings on record, Zlin have won 1, Bohemians 1905 have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Zlin and Bohemians 1905 last play each other?
They last met on 8 August 2026, when Zlin 0-2 Bohemians 1905.
Who has won more matches between Zlin and Bohemians 1905?
Bohemians 1905 have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Zlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Bohemians 1905 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zlin 62%, Bohemians 1905 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for Zlin and 62% for Bohemians 1905. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zlin home games / Bohemians 1905 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zlin play Bohemians 1905?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Zlin's games and 59% of Bohemians 1905's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Zlin vs Bohemians 1905 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Zlin's matches and 62% of Bohemians 1905's.
Do Zlin and Bohemians 1905 tend to score early?
Zlin have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Bohemians 1905 in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Zlin run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Bohemians 1905.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zlin beat Bohemians 1905 4-1 at Stadion Letná, Regular Season - 29, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zlin 1.67 xG and Bohemians 1905 1.67 xG, a combined 3.34. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Zlin beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zlin attack 1.06 / defence 1.18 against Bohemians 1905 attack 1.17 / defence 0.94, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zlin 38% | Draw 24% | Bohemians 1905 38%, with Zlin to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zlin 64%, Bohemians 1905 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zlin's trading profile (63 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Bohemians 1905's trading profile (63 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Bohemians 1905 arrived the stronger side — 1.33 PPG against 0.92. Form was overturned, with Zlin winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Zlin (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.53 average — above their attacking norm. Bohemians 1905 (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.78 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.