Zlin 1-4 Bohemians 1905 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Zlin at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Zlin vs Bohemians 1905 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Czech Liga encounter, Relegation Round - 3 sees Bohemians 1905 travel to Stadion Letná to take on Zlin. The game is scheduled for Saturday 7 May 2022, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Zlin stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L L D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Stadion Letná, Zlin have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Letná. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Zlin are significantly better at Stadion Letná than their overall form suggests.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Bohemians 1905 have recorded 0W 6D 4L from 10 outings — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D L D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Bohemians 1905 away from home this season: 0W 3D 7L from 10 away games — 0.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Zlin 0.90 PPG, Bohemians 1905 0.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Zlin, 1 for Bohemians 1905 and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 12 Feb 2022, ended 0–1 with Bohemians 1905 winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Zlin trading profile (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games).
Bohemians 1905 trading profile (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zlin 56% versus Bohemians 1905 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zlin 59% | Bohemians 1905 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zlin 1.64 xG and Bohemians 1905 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zlin attack 1.061 / defence 1.261 | Bohemians 1905 attack 0.678 / defence 1.346. League average goals — home 1.150 / away 1.086. Bohemians 1905 bring a strong defensive rating of 1.346 — this is suppressing Zlin's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 30 Zlin games / 30 Bohemians 1905 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zlin 54% | Draw 25% | Bohemians 1905 21%. Fair-value odds: Zlin 1.85 | Draw 4.00 | Bohemians 1905 4.76. Zlin hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Zlin are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Zlin offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.57 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates are neutral: Zlin 50% | Bohemians 1905 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zlin vs Bohemians 1905 | Competition: Czech Liga, Relegation Round - 3 | Venue: Stadion Letná • Kick-off: Saturday 7 May 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zlin 54% | Draw 25% | Bohemians 1905 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 49% | xG Zlin 1.64 / Bohemians 1905 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Zlin attack 1.061 / def 1.261 | Bohemians 1905 attack 0.678 / def 1.346 | league avg home 1.150 / away 1.086 • Poisson stance: Zlin (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Zlin xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Bohemians 1905 xG
49%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zlin vs Bohemians 1905 kick off?
Zlin vs Bohemians 1905 kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 7 May 2022 at Stadion Letná.
What was the final score in Zlin vs Bohemians 1905?
Zlin 1 - 4 Bohemians 1905.
Where is Zlin vs Bohemians 1905 being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Letná.
What competition is Zlin vs Bohemians 1905 part of?
Zlin vs Bohemians 1905 is a Relegation Round - 3 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Zlin vs Bohemians 1905?
Our statistical model gives Zlin a 54% chance of winning, Bohemians 1905 a 21% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Zlin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zlin vs Bohemians 1905?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Zlin and Bohemians 1905 will score (BTTS).
Will Zlin vs Bohemians 1905 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zlin and Bohemians 1905?
Record (1 meetings): Zlin 0W | Draws 0 | Bohemians 1905 1W.
What form are Zlin and Bohemians 1905 in?
Zlin (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-L-D-W. Bohemians 1905 (all comps): 0W-6D-4L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Zlin's attack at 1.06x the league average against Bohemians 1905's defence at 1.35x — combine the two and it projects 1.64 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bohemians 1905's attack versus Zlin's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.0%), 2-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Zlin Win
54%
1.86
25%
3.97
21%
4.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
2 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Zlin xG
Total xG
2.57
0.93
Bohemians 1905 xG
1.86
54%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
4.76
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
39%
2.53
19%
5.17
Win to Nil
21%
4.70
4%
24.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 7.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.6 | 11.7 | 5.4 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.6 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zlin vs Bohemians 1905?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Zlin and Bohemians 1905 expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Zlin and 0.93 for Bohemians 1905, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Zlin vs Bohemians 1905?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Zlin come into this having played 32 games, going 9W 7D 16L for 1.06 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-D-W.
On the other side, Bohemians 1905 sit at 0.84 PPG from 32 outings (6W 9D 17L), a run that reads D-L-D-D-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Zlin on 1.06 PPG, Bohemians 1905 on 0.84. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Zlin's home form reads 7W 2D 7L across 16 games on their own ground, a 1.44 PPG return.
Away from home, Bohemians 1905 have taken 0.50 points per game from 16 outings (1W 5D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Zlin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Zlin are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; Bohemians 1905 are on 1.12 scored and 1.84 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bohemians 1905 in 62%.
Last 32 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zlin
Current Season
Bohemians 1905
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zlin and Bohemians 1905 in coming into this match?
Zlin have gone 9W 7D 16L in their last 32 games (1.06 PPG), while Bohemians 1905 have gone 6W 9D 17L in their last 32 (0.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zlin at home or Bohemians 1905 away?
Zlin's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zlin at home: 1.44 PPG; Bohemians 1905 away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to February 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 8 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Bohemians 1905 have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 May 2022, when Bohemians 1905 won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Zlin's record when hosting Bohemians 1905 specifically: 1W 1D 4L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Zlin
2
Draws
7
Bohemians 1905
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zlin and Bohemians 1905?
From 10 meetings on record, Zlin have won 1, Bohemians 1905 have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Zlin and Bohemians 1905 last play each other?
They last met on 8 August 2026, when Zlin 0-2 Bohemians 1905.
Who has won more matches between Zlin and Bohemians 1905?
Bohemians 1905 have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Zlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Bohemians 1905 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zlin 56%, Bohemians 1905 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for Zlin and 62% for Bohemians 1905. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Zlin keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Bohemians 1905 in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zlin home games / Bohemians 1905 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zlin play Bohemians 1905?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Zlin's games and 62% of Bohemians 1905's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Zlin vs Bohemians 1905 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Zlin's matches and 62% of Bohemians 1905's.
Do Zlin and Bohemians 1905 tend to score early?
Zlin have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Bohemians 1905 in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Bohemians 1905 run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Zlin.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bohemians 1905 beat Zlin 1-4 at Stadion Letná, Relegation Round - 3, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zlin 1.64 xG and Bohemians 1905 0.93 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Bohemians 1905 outscored their 0.93 projection by 3.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zlin attack 1.06 / defence 1.26 against Bohemians 1905 attack 0.68 / defence 1.35, drawn from 30/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zlin 54% | Draw 25% | Bohemians 1905 21%, with Zlin to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a Bohemians 1905 win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zlin 59%, Bohemians 1905 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zlin's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Bohemians 1905's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Zlin 1.06 PPG, Bohemians 1905 0.84 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bohemians 1905 win broke the near-deadlock. Zlin (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bohemians 1905 (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.88 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.